The subject line is my questionable twist on the Francis Church response to Virginia O’Hanlon in 1897, Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus (see below). All of us “seeing” inflation month after month really don’t question its existence, but we do wonder how long inflation will continue a higher than the desired two percent […]
Although those reading MyDesultoryBlog.com more than once or twice are probably tired of me mentioning inflation … it is still an issue even as costs and prices are “rising” slower than previous. We all have policies, political figures and economic idealogy in mind when pointing our fingers … but I’ll leave that to voters come […]
If you were filling your tank, paying to keep the lights on or buying groceries (or shopping for nearly everything) … 2022 has been a struggle. If you were saving for college or retirement, it was also very painful. Will 2023 be a continuation or a painful recession … or is there a chance inflation […]
By CC BY-SA 4.0, Link Since I’m a tail-end baby boomer, at least according to the charts, the thought of “did I plan properly for retirement” regularly crosses my mind. Having lived through the last couple of decades of economic ups and downs without significant inflation …beyond the normal and desirable 2-3% per year (except […]
The Federal tax brackets are adjusted each year by the IRS based on inflation numbers in an attempt to stop “bracket creep.” This prices have soared as in September 2022 consumer prices were up 8.2% compared to 2021. It is likely most Americans have not seen that kind of wage increase which means their buying […]
While discussing the “will it” or “won’t it” Inflation Reduction Act being pushed by Democratic leadership in Washington DC as a way to replace the failed 2021 Build Back Better spending plan by President Biden last week, I figured digging into the details might prove better than spewing left or right talking points. The bill […]
CPI up 8.6% driven by a 35% jump in energy prices and 12% increase in groceries This is what a “sea of red” looks like for investors and stock market traders … and I can only imagine the “red” those living on a fixed income or families struggling to make ends meet must be seeing? […]
After filling up the 2010 BMW X5 35d with diesel … ouch … I drove to the least painful Ohio DMV location in my area according to the online wait times. Thankfully I came prepared with my passport, address verification and requested ID information. After $56.40 … I came out in less than 30 minutes […]
The “pain at the pump” is definitely real if you are buying fuel and if you have spend the last decade with gas and diesel at 40+% lower than we are seeing today. That said, in inflation-adjusted dollars, we are still off the highest per barrel prices that we have seen (chart below). Most oil […]
From a John Steele Gordon lecture at Hillsdale College … “money is just another commodity, no different from petroleum, pork bellies, or pig iron. So money, like all commodities, can rise and fall in price, depending on supply and demand. But because money is, by definition, the one commodity that is universally accepted in exchange […]
Nobody wants to really hear or see anymore written about inflation. We’ve all seen it with our own two eyes and our wallets have felt it since the Biden administration took office. No more though than the last couple of weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine as the West’s political miscalculations and head-in-the-tar-sands polices have made […]
Although this is really not a smooth continuation from yesterday’s “Inflation Hot” post, the financial and economic theme remains the same … so it will be considered “part 2.” The post left off with trying to stop inflation in the 1980s and forcing a recession, actually “back to back recessions.” We can all hope that […]
It is pretty obvious to most consumers that even with years of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates low, printing money and Congress spending, inflation remained in check at under 2%. Unfortunately after the last round of easy money policies during the pandemic, business shutdowns and government giving away money, this is no longer true. […]
A friend contemplating rolling over his 401K to an IRA asked me a bond investing question the other day as he would like to balance his portfolio of stocks by adding some bonds after the rollover. Since he has never owned a bond (outside of a managed fund), the question was, “what’s the impact of […]
What once was a weekly or at least bi-monthly lunch with my friend Jeff, has shifted to once every 3 months or so since COVID19. It’s not all due to the pandemic as changes in work habits and eating out habits has contributed to neglecting getting together. Nevertheless, it was enjoyable to spend an hour […]
A friend asked me the other day, “what are you going to do if inflation becomes a bigger problem than it is already?” Good question … the canned answer (safe answer) is to be diversified. The reality is far more challenging. There was a day when the first reply was to own hard assets like […]
Although I’m likely tainted in having lived through a period where inflation was real and uncontrolled, I do worry that people living today either ignore or downplay the negative impact inflation, stagflation or worse … hyperinflation … can make on our country. For those who know me, I’ve likely been the “boy who calls wolf” […]
An interesting take on “inflation” and how different generations perceive the possibility of it accelerating in the next decade or so … and perhaps the effect it can or will have on our lives. For example, in the graph below, pick your birth year and note the color bars to determine how many years of […]
The prediction that diesel fuels will rise (“double in price” – note the last minute of the interview) is bound to impact the price of goods. Everything is shipped using diesel fuel, be it on ships, trains or trucks, and with those prices rising significantly, consumers will be paying. On the personal side, those of […]
As the positive economy in the U.S. continues to grow America out of the "great recession" and rebound off the slow growth Obama years, we are seeing signs of inflation, hopefully just the right amount. Wages are rising and businesses sense they have pricing power and can raise prices (their cost are up too). Consumers […]
With the rapid drop in oil prices, and equal "10% correction" in the overall stock market, will improving wages offset by falling commodities (oil) cause the Federal Reserve rethink their concern that inflation is picking up? Current thoughts were that we could see three quarter point rate hikes in 2018 if the economy continues to […]
There was a spirited debate this past week concerning the Federal Reserves’ exit strategies and what will happen when the Fed balance sheet is deleveraged. The equity bulls continue to believe the U.S. will see economic grow as interest rates remain low and continued tame inflation numbers (some like Wilbur Ross are more concerned about […]
I regularly eyeball the government’s reported CPI inflation data (although question the applicability for real living in America?), and am concerned for those planning or already retired living on their “conservatively” invested savings. Many that I’ve talked with moved to cash positions after the 2008 recession or moved to much more conservative investments. Others hold […]
I’ve been doing some reading lately from those concerned about an uptick in inflation. Since many of the writers are the same people who have been warning for years about inflation, it is easy to take their analysis with a yawn and a bit of skepticism. Still, my commonsense indicator has also kicked in […]
Frequent guest and St. Louis Federal Reserve President Jim Bullard discussed making “decisions by the numbers” on CNBC’s Squawkbox this morning. He offered an opinion that current low inflation and a sluggish economy is keeping the Fed’s “loose money policy” in place and that conditions are not signaling a need to taper. I’m probably not […]
The new CPI numbers (Consumer Price Index) released by the government verify what most balancing family budgets already know … inflation is taking a bigger bite out of incomes. Most private sector workers feel fortunate just to be employed and have seen their take-home pay and benefits stagnate or retreat. Everyone I know has had […]
The news from Wall Street pre-market is not positive … although some suggest the possible morning downturn it an opportunity for those with cash to buy stocks of “cash rich companies” paying decent dividends? U.S. stock futures slipped further into the red, setting up the market for a sharply lower open, after rising inflation and […]
I read and interesting article this weekend that detailed the events and price points of oil adjusted for inflation. Without including the Subscription copywritten Data, I found it interesting to note that during the years 1979 – 1985 we actually sustained prices higher than our current $60/barrel. (peaked at $90/barrel* adjusted for inflation according to […]
Iran has threatened to retaliate for an attack in Damascus, Syria, that Tehran said was an Israeli airstrike on a diplomatic building. The strike killed several top Iranian military officials, including a senior member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Quds Force. According to the WSJ on Friday, “the U.S. rushed warships into position […]
As we approach another presidential election in November 2024 (it is still a long way off) … I find myself wishing we had Ronald Reagan on the ballot. I’ve yet to decide whether he put my political ideology into words, or if his political desires and presidency formed the positions I hold today? Whatever, this is […]
Amazing day for the stock market again. It looks like more high inflation and that this kind of strong market confidence may push off Fed rate cuts until inflation drops closer to 2%, unemployment begins to rise or the entire economy hits the skids. On the other hand, this irrational exuberance looking excitement (Crypto, $RDDT, […]
Going to college after high school has always seemed expensive, but by working, borrowing and getting help from parents … it was do-able, and by today’s standards, seemed affordable. I can’t help but smile noticing that when I finally paid off my student loan that I could start saving to put my kids through college. […]
The IRS has set the new tax brackets to adjust for inflation beginning in January 2024. The update is to shift higher by 5.4%, but for 2023 taxes that most of us will be filing before April 15 and saw even more “bracket creep” due to the previously year’s inflation. Here are the changes […]
My buddy Jeff and I enjoy debating and learning from each other while sharing what we are reading. We are far from experts on anything (I should speak for myself), but that doesn’t stop us from opining. HA! Last week with the Federal Reserve “pausing” on interest rate hikes with inflation coming down and semi-telegraphed […]
This whiny post is going to ring hollow for those going through serious problems … or even noticing that I was recentlydifficult time adjusting to shifting gears. Brenda and I now have more unstructured time, particularly since Brenda’s surgeries and rehab (although I do still try to do work each day). The earlier than expected […]
A little bit of history told in an entertaining movie format … what could be better? Here’s a Sorbo movie call “Miracle in East Texas“ to be in theaters in October 2023 with a timely release (inflation and energy). The history tie in is the the World War II era story just as we were […]
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The week was abnormally filled with charts and graphs while chiming in to news stories and posts on Twitter this past week, but I’ll start with an animated GIF graphic and link to a story regarding offshore wind farm leases opening up in the Gulf of Mexico. As for the graphs and charts, here’s one […]
My financial and investment musings have been few and far between lately, but while reading Barron’s Magazine article this past week, it reminded me that we investors often can look to history for insight. If you don’t want to read it, try listening to it — Audio ElevenLabs. ElevenLabs AI reading this content – […]
While waiting for the big TWO TRILLION dollar company that is Apple ($AAPL) to report earning after hours on Thursday (story), I’m contemplating the likely outcome of accelerated interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Obviously concluding that “inflation in transitory,” as the Fed Chair commented after the pandemic, was the incorrect assumption … and […]
Taxes are often on my mind … especially when reminded by an email update from the Tax Foundation. This week was both a depressing one (Ohio #41) and an interesting one due to the number of states and cities trying hard to reduce the burden of bloated government on their residents. I would nice if […]
This past month while semi-vacationing in Florida (condo window installation), I started reading an excellent new book by well-known economist Nouriel Roubini called “MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them” (October 18, 2022). The book follows a trend for me and what I’ve been reading when it comes to […]
Yup … ENFORCEMENT. … hundreds of IRS applications have been around for at least 25 years and dozens that have been in existence for more than 50. There were also pieces of software running 15 updates behind the current version. Fifteen! That’s like using a new iPhone with the iOS from the original iPhone … […]
Guess when this Fed news came out? High inflation and tight labor markets led Federal Reserve officials to signal they could raise interest rates at their next meeting despite a higher likelihood the economy would enter a recession later this year. Fed officials considered skipping a rate increase at their meeting last month but concluded […]
A chip company I’ve watched and traded up and down over the last few years has been Marvell Technology Group ($MRVL) and achieving consistency quarter to quarter and year to year is a challenge. With the economies around the world stressed with higher inflation and the tightening from central banks, meeting earnings estimates is becoming […]
This past month on our trip to Florida, I downloaded an audiobook on Hoopla from the library in order to save on iPhone data (our Mint Mobile plan has a 4GB limit). I started it on my AfterShokz headset while on the beach, but Brenda soon wanted to listen with me … so we both […]
There are two projects sitting semi-started in the workshop this winter (delayed with Brenda’s hip fracture), although I’m still struggling to accept the VERY HIGH lumber prices. To be fair, I’ve always complained about buying lumber as no matter where it is purchased, it always seems far to high. But nowadays with inflation raging, it […]
With inflation pushing grocery prices up, Brenda refuses to purchase store-bought croutons unless they are “on sale.” So since we had a quarter loaf of stale bread after our recent week away, I decided to cube and turn it into Rosemary, Italian seasoning, Garlic and Olive Oil croutons. After making them (bake 10 minutes at […]
Well … the hopeful political “red wave” did not happen (at least from a conservative perspective). If we are to be generous, it could be viewed as a “small ripple” … but the results of the election as of this post are not fully counted even yet. Does that seem odd in our evolved and […]
Skywatching and politics have little in common, unless one is stretching for a to put the two together in a morning after a November midterm election blog post. In the early Tuesday morning hours, before the election polls opened, the Blood “Red” Moon was being photographed and viewed by skywatchers — often referred to at […]
Although I have yet to open the individual components … the L-O-N-G awaited MagFast “premium charging” kit has finally arrived. The new magnetically connected kit is not yet fully complete as there are still a couple components that will be shipped later. This will probably be the last pre-purchased product I purchase after losing my […]
For those using Apple products and subscription services, the monthly cost is going up. The company announced new version of their iPad lineup this week followed by the news that they are hiking fees for Apple Music and Apple TV+ subscription services this week for the very first time. In the U.S., the cost of […]
With inflation raging and oil prices sky high, opting for the most premium synthetic oil is no longer and option for my aging 2010 BMW X5 35d diesel. I’ve been using Ravenol and usually do my own oil and filter changes and although self-changing the oil on a premium diesel model is still better done […]
Now, I’m not quite old enough to have regularly used this kind of service garage air station to fill car tires for FREE, but I have used them AND it still triggers memories: Do you remember the “bump, bump, bump” surging as air filled the tires? As I’ve mentioned twice before, one of my first […]
It’s simple: between the Federal Reserve spewing out more than $4 trillion in cheap money over the past year, and Congress signing off on “relief” packages totaling an unprecedented $3 trillion, there is too much money chasing too few goods. .. Inflation will only get hotter if Biden and congressional Democrats press ahead with even […]
Having initially enjoyed the weekly meal offering from Hello Fresh, the menu started to get a little stale as new items began to resemble previous meals. With inflation at the grocery store (and the fuel and time cost), the price was somewhat less of a gripe, but both of us started to notice fewer and […]
As we face another recession (some believe we are already in one – see February 2022 part 1 and part 2), I couldn’t help but notice a post from about this time of the year in 2008 (see chart at left) when we faced a previous self-inflicted recession (banking crisis). The 2007-2008 Financial Crisis was the […]
If you believe the number 13 makes for an unlucky day, you’ll probably point to that as an omen … but the deep, nearly 1300 points, drop in the Dow came as investors and economists were expecting an easing pace of inflation … not continued high inflation. The CPI report indicated a 8.3% rate compared […]
Having recently read an article about Dr. Doom and “his pinnacle of influence” on August 17th, 1982, I’m adding Henry Kaufman’s book “The Day the Markets Roared” to my Amazon Kindle “want to read” list. Obviously since it is a look back on financial market history, it is not all that crucial that I read […]
Some days I over-think things … today was one of those days. Like a lot of people, we have had an Amazon Prime membership for a long time. It has its pluses and minus, but continues to provide value and has become a habit and part of our daily lives. We use Alexa and I […]
It was an ugly day on Wall Street as investors reacted to comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell who indicated “that the Federal Reserve must continue to raise rates” and “hold them at a higher level until they are confident inflation is under control.” Some economists highlighted in Barron’s Magazine last week, have suggested that […]
My social participation in automotive groups and forums that were common for me decades ago (CinciTDI, TDIClub, etc) have shifted to social media friends on Facebook groups (not so much anymore) and Twitter (daily). Those contacts include a bunch of automotive journalist as well as people just interested in cars and trucks. The conversations has […]
UGH! Gasoline may have dropped 40 cent per gallon as American consumers cut back on travel and driving due to inflation and the likely coming recession, but diesel prices continue to remain elevated. There are very few options when “you need to get to go, and need to be able to get where you need […]
It is stomach-churning to follow the often heard “hold tight” and “stick with the plan” advice often given by financial advisors. If you are currently retired and living off of a fix-income and nest egg, or are trying to prepare for retirement, you are likely worried about times like these. Advisors tell you not to […]
Q: What do you call a religious person who claims that the end is near? Answer: A fanatic. Q: What do you call a secular person who claims that the end is near? Answer: An environmentalist. When my podcasts on my weekend playlist are finished and I’m still in the mood for some audio content, […]
I have put off buying diesel fuel for the Kubota mower and John Deere 330 as long as possible … but inevitably the reserve of 25 gallons stored in fuel jugs gets used up. It looks as if it is time to pay $$$ the inflated prices on fossil fuels — elections have consequences (pre-Russia invasion […]
FoxBusiness/WSJ graphic For the good or bad, whenever I’m away from my daily routine, it seems like the financial markets lose stability and investors go into crisis mode? The past couple of weeks, those invested in stocks, bonds and crypto know that it has been painful; there have been very few refuges from the sharp […]
The financial markets have been following the Federal Reserves messaging regarding tightening their easy money policies and has been selling off the last few days. The more aggressive, but late stance to slow inflation is one needed piece of the puzzle … although also heights concerns over slow growth or even a recession. That news […]
As the Fed finally starts to deal with inflation, the market took note this month and seems to be selling off across the board. The expectation is that the economy will slow and as they say in the investing world, “don’t fight the Fed.” There isn’t a silver bullet that can keep businesses booming, paychecks […]
As the slow progress on finishing my home office continues, I’ve set up a temporary office in the basement (below). It is surprisingly comfortable, but I do miss the daylight and looking out the windows. I can’t help but reminisce to make this a Throwback Thursday #TBT post after finally removing the painters tape from […]
I’m not an expert on how the events in Ukraine will impact the world, but I do pay close attention to geopolitical events, the financial markets and the economy … and can’t help but wonder how this will reshape our future. For the past year or so I’ve been grumbling about how the Biden administration’s […]
Well, two doses of disappointing news in one week. First, the Bengals lose in Super Bowl 56, and then my Barron’s magazine gets smaller with even smaller type (requires a second pair of readers!). They call it “shrinkflation” in an attempt to save a few dollars and probably force subscribers into a 100% digital subscription. […]
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So … how’s the economy doing in 2022? Well, if you measure it based on the stock market or maybe finding a job (if you want to work) … then the façade looks ok. Dig a little deeper and you’ll find out that your paycheck doesn’t go that far … IF you can find what […]
Even with all the negativity around Covid19 and the rapidly spreading, but somewhat more tolerated, Omicron variant … investors chose to shrug off what looks to slow down the economic re-openings around the world. The saying I keep hearing is that “I’m done with it.” My view for the strong stock market start on the […]
As we wind down 2021 and close the book on a stressful COVID19 filled year … here’s hoping next year will bring an end to the pandemic. If that is not going to be the case, then let’s hope the Omicron Variant isn’t as deadly as the Delta Variant … and that we will keep […]
As Christmas cards arrive and the 15th of December hits, it is time to start winding down my business year and thinking about 2022 (BTW, we mailed our cards this week). One thing I have noticed this year is that more cards are from people who are now retired or are retiring. Hm … does […]
Not to many years ago, the United States was on its way to becoming energy independent … until the American fossil fuel industry came under attack from within our own country. This time the reason is not due to our country’s inability to produce enough oil and natural gas for our needs, but an ideology […]