The debate is on: Why did incumbents lose in the election?
Posted By RichC on November 13, 2024
Obviously the economy ranks high as to why incumbents were on the losing team when it comes to the November 2024 election. But for me, it’s the same as it was back in 1992 when James Carville said, “It’s the economy, stupid” … although this go around it could be argued that social issues played a big part in outings the Democrat’s VP Kamala Harris for president.
Long before Kamala Harris and Donald Trump became their parties’ nominees, one factor guaranteed Democrats faced an uphill battle to keep the White House: inflation. Since 2021, high prices have been mowing down incumbents everywhere.
In the past five months, the ruling parties of France, the United Kingdom and Japan lost outright or lost their legislative majority. Germany and Canada could be next.
It is a reminder of a lesson largely forgotten during a generation of price stability but obvious from history: Inflation is politically toxic. It corrodes public trust and feeds a sense of disorder.
In the competition between culture and economics as a theory for how people vote, clearly, both matter.
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