My Desultory Blog

Posted By RichC on April 27, 2006

If you’ve given any thought to hybrid vehicles, you most likely have heard discussions or asked questions about possible plug-in versions. The concept is pretty simple — they are normal hybrid vehicles, either series or parallel, that have larger (or more efficient) batteries, a different controller and a charger that plugs into your home electrical system for recharging. Currently there are a few ‘mad scientist’ models being built but nothing commercial from a major automaker. Actually some current hybrids are already capable of doing this with a simple plug and charger … the range, engine off, is about 30 miles. According to experimenters, this range can be increase significantly by adding lithium-ion batteries which will increase electric only range to nearly 100 miles.

The following NBC clip interviews three guys who decided to give this ‘plug in hybrid’ or PHEV a try. Although the concept is great and it makes sense … it doesn’t necessarily make perfect ‘cents’ according to vehicle manufacturers. The added cost at this particular time might not be ‘sellable.’ (the quoted number to modify a car in such a way was roughly $10K per vehicle) Ouch … that’s an bunch of upfront dollars.

Of course this doesn’t detour hard core hypermilers, environmentalist or those concerned with the unmeasured cost (and future cost) our nation faces to keep imported oil flowing from the middle east. Several ‘vehicle modifiers’ are starting companies that will offer a hybrid conversion service with a plug and believe that the market is ready. (someone even mentioned the possibility of a do-it-yourself kit?) Check out Edrive Systems and CalCars for the latest.

Plug in hybrids news story

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Posted By RichC on April 26, 2006

In part two of ‘Fuel Prices‘ adds a little more than just the ‘fear’ and ‘greed’ theory to why we’re seeing $3.00 gasoline. Its appropriate today since President Bush is talking and getting involved with a little pressure from his party no doubt. I suspect many Republicans are having election fears knowing citizens will blame the party in control for whatever happens. The more I listen and read, the more opinions I’m finding — what’s the average American to think? Is it ‘fear’ — concern over Iran — or ‘greed’ — those money grubbing oil companies? Perhaps trying to find a single something to blame is where we’re going wrong?

Editorials offer a few interesting opinions, but most seem to be attempting to over simplify the problem; the blame game. Bill O’Reilly is one that has been outspoken believing its the oil companies and their unpatriotic greed. I usually enjoy “The O’Reilly Factor,” but his finger pointing in my opinion is over simplifying the problem; solely blaming the oil companies is misleading his audience. Hopefully his faithful viewers will realize his opinions aren’t always 100% accurate and that occasionally even O’Reilly can go off the deep end.

Monday night Mr. O’Reilly had an interview segment with Mac Johnson, a columnist that wrote a piece ripping O’Reilly for his views that high gas prices were the result of a “cabal of Big Oil fat cats.” Mr. Johnson insinuated that Bill O’Reilly has adopted a conspiracy theory attitude that oil companies are gouging consumers and that’s what is responsible for high gasoline prices. Pointing at Big Oil isn’t all wrong, but doesn’t tell the whole story either. I’m not planning to stick up for oil companies, but Bill O’Reilly doesn’t seem to understand the purpose of futures trading in spreading risk when dealing with commodities such as crude oil.

OReilly and Johnson debate oil prices – 04.24, 2006

One of the interesting tidbits that came from Mac Johnson is his explanation as to what effects the price of our gasoline. He illustrated this in a graph that charts the four major components that impact the price of gasoline. First there is the stable and relatively consistent ‘tax’ that is set by government — taxes on gasoline average a bit over 40 cents per gallon. Second is the distribution and marketing cost per gallon which is shockingly at nearly at a 3 year low at only 11 cents per gallon. Third is a very volatile component — refining, which has been up and down and was heavily affected by hurricanes this past year. It currently is down from its high of around 80 cents per gallon but still high. (see graph) Finally the fourth and large component in gasoline is the crude oil itself. Johnson stresses that over 3 years we have seen a 91% increase in crude oil, from 70 cents to a $1.34 per gallon. It is by far the large piece of the pie affecting the price we pay at the pump and a 91% move is significant. Note … the refiners are not making much more, the distributors are actually making less, and Uncle Sam is relatively steady with his taking of ‘taxes.’

I believe most will agree with Mac Johnson’s summation that cost at the pump comes mostly from the crude oil price itself and that crude has created most of the rise in gasoline price. If that is true, why is crude so high?

O’Reilly falsely believes it is primarily some collusion on the part of the oil companies, but in reality the market pressures are causing prices to rise. The demand for oil in economically growing and populated countries like China and India are a big and increasing oil users. Here in the US, we’ve done our part to consume as well, although we always have. This demand is high enough to put a premium price on available crude oil at a time when political unrest around producing nations is high. Iraq, Iran and their surrounding oil producing neighbors are tenuous places as we are all aware, and the number five exporter in the world, Venezuela is not exactly governed by a friend to the US.

The climate in our own country for producing more oil isn’t exactly booming either. Old wells are running slow, new wells are environmentally challenging and both the cost and risk of exploration is relatively high for speculators. Speaking of speculators, that is exactly where the largest recent increases have come from even if supplies are currently adequate.

The futures market is designed to take the burden off the suppliers as well as the buyers by sharing the risk. A trader of contracts either guarantees or is guaranteed a future price, depending on the side of the trade he is on. If political ‘future’ looks unstable or risky, traders will bid prices up out of ‘fear.’ They fear crude oil supplies will be disrupted or short and that it will drive prices higher when it comes to fulfill contracts. Remember they have locked into the price they will sell or buy crude oil based on a future date … the better be close to the right price. Even the smallest price change either way on a single contract have huge leveraged repercussions either for a profit or loss. This unknown or unstable environment is in large part what is causing our current run up. I one is to point a finger, its currently the political unknown around what Iran and the US are going to do. (let’s hope this price spike doesn’t cause a stumble in the US economy in the mean time as that will add fuel to the fire … more ‘fear.’)

For the most part I’ve commented positively on Mac Johnson’s points as he does understand the oil business and futures markets. Unfortunately on the subject of alternatives to oil, he shows is bias told the petroleum industry. Alternatives, conservation and right-sized vehicles can play a big part in slimming down our oil appetite here in the US. I’m not sure we can ‘grow’ our way out of our petroleum addiction, but I do believe it will play a part. Being clean and renewable is and added bonus and is an appropriate domestic alternative to the finite supplies of petroleum. Ethanol from perennial crops other than corn and biodiesel from oil producing plants of all kinds will be able to offset a significant portion of our transportation fuels even though the agricultural industry is primarily supporting ‘corn’ and ‘soybeans.’ Technology will also play an important role as hybrid, plug-ins, fuel cells and hydrogen continue to advance and improve. Let’s not discount them in our nation’s long term planning.

In summary when placing blame, let’s not let the individual citizen off the hook either. We are a gas guzzling people. Take a look even with $3.00 gasoline at how many quick trips each of us make. Look at how many large vehicles (the SUV craze) are on the road commuting from suburbs with one person everyday. Many of us are not doing our part to pitch in and “save-a-gallon.”

Greta Van Susteren asks about gas prices

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Posted By RichC on April 25, 2006

Two totally different topics … “Brain Port” as described at MSNBC and a personal video. (humor me)

First, a concept and device that was introduced 30 years ago by Dr. Paul Bach-y-Rita at the University of Wisconsin; it is know as “Brain Port.” Originally it was a video camera that routed images through electrodes to nerves on a persons lower back. Through experimentation, he discovered that the tongue was an even better receptor.

Dr. Anil Raj (photo) and his team has move forward with this concept and is using 144 microelectrodes to transmit information through the tongue. The brain which can learn to process the signal can quickly help people make sensory decisions their own 6 senses cannot process. The military oriented research is experimenting with soldiers and Navy Seal divers. In the underwater use, the tongue “Brain Port” is used to transmit sonar and directional information to the diver.

In the article, the device was tested with blind people, who “found doorways, noticed people walking in front of them and caught balls.” Although much of the research is being design around the military potential, a commercially produced device could be available soon. The article states that the “Brain Port” could be helpful for those whose vestibular systems of the inner ear are damaged which causes balance problems. On a personal note, this interests me since I spend several years suffering from the effects of Menieres disease and know what loss of balance is all about.

EDIT: Spotted an Engadget post on this … a great site BTW.

# # #

For the personal post, I filmed a little of my son’s Rugby match this past weekend. It was really the first sunny and warm day for a match as the half dozen others took place in the rain or at least damp weather. I don’t know why, but it seems that my son is attracted to sports that I know little about … why couldn’t it be football or baseball?

Nevertheless, several matches into the season I’m beginning to understand the game and am happy to see Taylor enjoying the camradery and physical challenges associated with this rough game. His team has suffered several major injuries (three broken legs) which to Taylor’s positive way of looking at things has moved him to a starter position. (1st year sophomores generally learn the game and are substituted from the sidelines) Another interesting … and embarrassing part about posting this short 4 minute video clip is that this is my wife’s first match … and she knows even less about Rugby that me! (in other words, ignore my comments on the video of me trying to explain the game to her)
🙂

Category: Sports, Video | No Comments »
Tags: rugby, taylor

Posted By RichC on April 24, 2006

I spotted a Volkswagen Jetta advertisement that reminds me of the Volvo ads … stressing safety.An accident can happen at anytime and that selecting a car that is light and fuel efficient might not always be the wisest choice. Realizing just how much I spend on insurance “just in case” … perhaps a few dollars toward a safer vehicle isn’t a bad idea either?

Thankfully for most new car buyers, automobiles ‘over the board’ are far safer than their predecessors. Still, there are few cars that test a little better than others … I’ll point out a couple bias thoughts in case the fuel prices have anyone hybrid shopping:
1) The New Jetta scores top in cars of its size.
2) The VW diesel option (TDI) get over 40MPGs and is not a small underpowered car.
3) The TDI version runs diesel (or biodiesel) which is not nearly as dangerous or explosive in a crash.
4) The VW doesn’t have a high voltage electrical system and a gasoline tank — two items that do not go well together in an accident.
5) Statistics state that the average American is likely to be in FOUR accidents in their lifetime — which car do you want to be in.
6) Diesel vehicles have traditionally outlasted and retained their resale better than most.

Category: Video, Volkswagen | No Comments »
Tags: mp4, safe happens, volkswagen

Posted By RichC on April 23, 2006

Mark Groves had another great VW TDI GTG on Saturday. The central location just 30 minutes from Columbus, the great weather and the many helping hands of experienced owners helped to make this “Spring Dust Off” an enjoyable event. Mark and his wife’s hospitality was appreciated by all; what a great host. (too many things to eat!)

I counted owners from 5 states and all points of Ohio. I did my best to represent the CinciTDI gang and enjoyed meeting new and old TDI Lovers. The day could not have been more beautiful from the aspect of a nice drive and pleasant weather. Several owners were there early starting in on their intake manifold cleanings under the tutelage of Bruce Bowling. (be sure to support the CinciTDI and TDIClub and receive an Intake Manifold Cleaning DVD starring Bruce!) MoGolf (Glen), the world reknown timing belt guru was busy under the hood and of course working none stop. Most car owners had small projects but several of us just came to socialize … it was a good time.

I’ll include a few photos below with a new feature that allows for a large full size photo by clicking on it.















Thanks again Mark, we had a great time.

—-
EDIT and add comments from Mark Grove:

I just wanted to take a minute to thank everyone who attended. The
final count was 25 cars representing 6 states.

Awesome!

Addtionally, I’d like to thank those of you who brought sides,
snacks, desserts, etc. Your generosity in the donation can is greatly
appreciated too.
A special thank you to our “Master Wrench Turners” Glen, Bruce, and
Aaron. Without you guys this thing just wouldn’t have been as
successful.
Thanks to Rich for being our official GTG photographer and for
posting the pix at CinciTDI and on his personal blog. Be sure to
check them out.

Work wrap-up:
3 intake cleanings
1 racepipe installation
1 boost guage installation
1 antenna installation
1 instrument cluster swap
1 oil/filter change
1 fuel/air/cabin filter change
1 TB change
Numerous VAG-COM tweaks and checks

I probably missed a few things so please post them for the record.

IMPORTANT!- I have 1 MK3 plastic belly pan in my garage. Free to it’s
rightful owner. I haven’t found the related installation hardware.
Also, there is one green and white folding lawnchair and a red
plastic Tupperware bowl which are longing to go home.
Contact me via PM and we’ll make arrangements to get those items back
to you.

Once again, Lisa and I thank you all for making it such a fantastic
GTG and hope to see you all at the next one in October!

Mark

Category: Automotive, Volkswagen | 8 Comments »
Tags: cincitdi, grove city, tdi, volkswagen

Posted By RichC on April 22, 2006

The subject is on everyone’s mind once again … Fuel prices. What are we doing about it and is it really a problem of our own making? As several east coast gas stations put the ‘Out of Gas’ signs back on their pumps, Americans are getting worked up once again over potential shortages and the higher price of oil. Crude has been hitting highs at over $70/barrel (over $75 today), but most analysts indicate our stockpiles and inventories are in good shape. “Its the uncertainly with Iran” one Future’s trader commented, “its not a matter of IF we go head to head with Iran over their nuclear program, its WHEN.” I suspect that fear in this case, mixed with a little greed, is what is triggering $3+ dollar gasoline and diesel.

I was reading an email today that got me thinking about oil prices. Perhaps I’ll make this a multi part post … the first taking a look at what world gasoline prices really are. Below are 15 cities around the world with far different burdens on their citizens. Some countries tax gasoline heavily, which boost their price per gallon and others (producer nations) offer their citizens cheap oil. How does one justify 12 cent per gallon gasoline???

Price in US Dollars:

Oslo, Norway – $6.62

London, England – $5.96

Rome, Italy – $5.80

Brussel, Belguim – $6.16

Kuwait – $0.78

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia – $0.91

Hong Kong – $6.25

Tokyo – $5.05

Sao Paulo, Brazil – $4.42

Buenos Aires, Argentina – $2.09

Mexico City, Mexico – $2.22

Sydney, Australia – $3.42

Johannesburg, South Africa – $3.39

New Delphi, India – $3.71

Caracas, Venezuela – $0.12 < === Huh?

Here is a much better chart of pricing as a percentage of income posted on gratefulpatriot.com.

Category: Automotive, Biodiesel, Environment, Financial | 2 Comments »
Tags: biodiesel, diesel, fuel, gasoline