Powertrain Projections Show EVs Stalling Through 2031
Posted By RichC on July 8, 2026
While EV sales have cooled considerably, hybrid powertrains are seeing strong growth and are projected to capture a significantly larger share of the market in the coming years.
“Hybrids are the breakout star of the U.S. car market as EV demand fades”
Marketwatch – July 2, 2026
A chart from Murphy Automotive Partners (shared via WSJ/MarketWatch reporting) illustrates the decisive shift: Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles continue to decline in share, hybrids are rising steadily, and pure EVs remain a relatively small slice even by 2031e. 
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- 2025: ICE ~78%, Hybrid ~14%, EV ~8%
- 2027e: ICE ~74%, Hybrid ~21%, EV ~5%
- 2031e: ICE ~66%, Hybrid ~27%, EV ~7%
Hybrids offer the best of both worlds for many drivers — better fuel efficiency and lower operating costs without the range anxiety, higher upfront costs, or charging infrastructure challenges of full EVs.
The article notes that hybrid volume is up 82% over the past three years (per Cox Automotive), making it the fastest-growing powertrain option. Many consumers are prioritizing practical fuel savings amid elevated gas prices rather than jumping fully into EVs. Toyota’s shift to hybrid-only models like the Camry is a strong market signal.
Owning a 2019 Tesla Model 3 SR+ (now with CCS retrofit and ~83k miles), I appreciate the efficiency and performance of electrification. However, the data reinforces what many practical buyers are realizing: hybrids provide meaningful real-world benefits today without some of the trade-offs of battery-only vehicles — especially for longer trips, cold weather, or areas with limited charging access.
This trend aligns with broader consumer preferences for reliability and total cost of ownership over mandates or hype. It will be interesting to watch how automakers respond — ramping up hybrid offerings while EV infrastructure and battery tech continue to mature.
Are you considering a hybrid for your next vehicle, sticking with traditional ICE … or going full EV?
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