My Desultory Blog

Posted By RichC on January 3, 2008

Is it a good time to go contrary in the drugstore stock sector? Thursday financial news has release some poor performance numbers in the nations’ largest drug store chains and traders/investors are exiting positions CVS, Walgreens and Rite Aid.

US Retail Stocks Flat; Drug Stores Under Pressure
By Andria Cheng Last update: 1/3/2008 10:49:38 AM
Retail-sector shares traded flat Thursday, a session marked by selling pressure brought to bear on drug-store operators Walgreen Co. (WAG), CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS) and Rite Aid Corp. (RAD).
Shares of CVS Caremark fell 6.7% and Walgreen dropped 5.7%. Both companies reported December sales that fell short of analysts’ estimates.
Meanwhile, shares of Rite Aid dropped 6% after the company reported an unexpected decline in December sales.
The drug-store chains blamed generic drug introductions and a slow flu season that hurt same-store pharmacy sales.
CVS Caremark said sales at stores open at least a year rose 1.8%. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had been expecting growth of 4.5%.

The pharmacy chain said December sales missed its estimates because of “adverse weather early in the month, a slowly developing flu season and general economic conditions.” The company, however, said full-year profit would be at the high end of its previous forecast as a result of expense controls and improved margins.
Rival Walgreen said monthly same-store sales rose 2.6%, missing the 5% average estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial, and that total sales rose 7.8% to $5.51 billion. The December results included a 3.3% increase in comparable pharmacy sales, while comparable front-end sales increased 1.7%.
Broadly, the S&P Retail Index rose slightly to 402.41, steadying after retreating earlier at the open.

Traditionally these companies tend to trade higher in the spring and early summer … perhaps its a good time to speculate and bottom fish?

Although I sold WAG last month (dumb luck), I think I’ll put some of that money back to work and dollar cost average a few shares of RAD at $2.39 today (down over 10% today, even more over the last two days) with the plan to add a few more share if it goes lower. Nevertheless, I see a short term gain by spring or early summer.

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Posted By RichC on January 2, 2008

After violence breaks out in Nigeria, the price of light, sweet crude futures for January delivery rose $4.02 to $100 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The prices continue to rise due to the expanding economies of China and India according to analysts. Tensions around the world continue to create unrest for traders and speculators which according to some could drive prices even higher. Besides the Nigerian situation, weather has affected Mexican exports as ports have been closed and a report indicating that OPEC might not be able to meet global demands have added concerns.

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Posted By RichC on January 1, 2008

I’ve been a fan of Clive Cussler and his novels for years and received his new book “The Chase” as a Christmas gift from a friend. Although this current novel differs from the norm (ie. Dirk Pitt or Kurt Austin NUMA storylines), the story of a steam locomotive recovery from the days of the old west looks entertaining. According to a summary, the historic “thriller” takes place in Montana where a locomotive involved in a 1906 string of bank robberies and murders are connected. Can’t wait to find the ‘quiet’ time for this pleasure reading … thanks Jeff!

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Posted By RichC on December 31, 2007

My family has been enjoying some time out of town and away from the computer, cellphone, Internet and WORK! In full disclosure though, I did make an attempt a post from my Palm Treo 700p as I wanted to comment on my daughter’s new iGo Keyboard, but wasn’t able to get the post and photo uploaded.
Nevertheless, in winding down the year, its the time many investors and watchers of the economy check up on their investments. Although the U.S. markets overall had gains this year, the trouble in the sub-prime financial markets and the effect on housing really put a damper on an otherwise positive year.

Here are a few 2007 changes:
DOW Industrials were up 7.24%
“Tech heavily” NASDAQ up 11%
S & P Healthcare up 6.33%
S & P Technology up 17%
S & P Telecom up 11%
S & P Materials up 21%
S & P Financials down -21%

Oil was up on the year nearly 60% which pushed the energy sector higher an impressive 34%. Hmm … will the biggest returns for 2008 be in a financial stock rebound??? If so, does one invest in the group (mutual fund or ETF — ie. XLF, VFH, KBE) or try to pick the strongest companies?

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Tags: flickr, igo, keyboard, treo

Posted By RichC on December 30, 2007

Popular Mechanics has a great article in their January issue on the coming clean diesels noting “Hybrids beware!” The author Ben Hewitt points out that the new breed of diesels from companies like Volkswagen are capable of better fuel economy (74.3 mpg for the VW Polo TDI) and produce fewer greenhouse gases than some gas/electric hybrids.

Hewitt begins with positive accolades for the preproduction 2009 Volkswagen Jetta TDI due to be release in late summer 2008. He comments that in his drive on I-75 in Michigan averaged nearly 50 mpg and that “what’s coming out of the tailpipe is no dirtier than the emissions from the 35-mpg econoboxes I can now see in my rearview mirror. Speed, fuel efficiency and minimal emissions? These aren’t characteristics usually associated with diesel-powered vehicles. But they will be.”

Great article … check it out here.

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Tags: hewitt, hybrids, jetta, popular mechanics, tdi, volkswagen, vw

Posted By RichC on December 26, 2007

Although Car and Driver teases TDI drivers with a few MPG one-liners, the fever to get a new TDI is growing. Check out the list of 10 in December’s Car and Driver article:

2008 Volkswagen Jetta TDI
31 mpg city/39 mpg highway (est)
Vee-Dub diesel die-hards, particularly those who live in the states tied to California emissions standards, are dancing an oily polka, because their diesel messiah returns in the form of the 50 state legal, state-of-the-art Jetta TDI. The rest of us are just excited about a car that should regularly return more than 50 mpg. Official fuel-economy figures aren’t out yet, but we expect to see something like low 30s in the city and high 30s on the highway from normal use, although we’re sure diesel-huffing fanboys (and -girls)—the sort of people who debate the optimal drafting distances for differently shaped “tow vehicles”—will employ their favorite mileage-stretching strategies to crush the Prius’s 45-mpg highway figure.

An expected jog to 60 mph in 8.0 to 8.5 seconds, although not embarrassing, does fail to express how well this car will dispatch day-to-day driving duties. With torque available from idle to redline, the stress of sphincter-clenching maneuvers such as country-road passing and sprints across busy intersections is much mitigated.

The federal mandate for ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuel, long available in other parts of the world, facilitates the use of emissions-control technologies developed with Mercedes and others under the BlueTec label, although Volkswagen will continue to use its TDI moniker. Unlike the Mercedes-Benz E320, the Jetta TDI makes do without urea injection, instead employing a storage catalyst that traps nitrogen oxides until enough have built up to be burned off. No word yet on the rumored Grateful Dead–edition TDI equipped with an NOx-to-nitrous-oxide converter with dashboard-mounted balloon inflator.

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Posted By RichC on December 24, 2007

Last night my wife and I enjoyed reading the small Max Lucado coffee table book “One Incredible Moment” in front of our Christmas Tree. Although the book was published in 2006, the segment included below, Mary’s Prayer, was originally part of the Lucado book “God Came Near.” As you prepare for your Christmas celebration and enjoy your presents, take a moment to ponder the Greatest Gift — Jesus.

God. O infant-God. Heaven’s fairest child. Conceived by the union of divine grace with our disgrace. Sleep well. Sleep well. Bask in the coolness of this night bright with diamonds. Sleep well, for the heat of anger simmers nearby. Enjoy the silence of the crib, for the noise of confusion rumbles in your future. Savor the sweet safety of my arms, for a day is soon coming when I cannot protect you.

Rest well, tiny hands. For though you belong to a king, you will touch no satin, own no gold.You will grasp no pen, guide no brush. No, your tiny hands are reserved for works more precious:
to touch a leper’s open wound,
to wipe a widow’s weary tear,
to claw the ground of Gethsemane.
Your hands, so tiny, so tender, so white—clutched tonight in an infant’s fist. They aren’t destined to hold a scepter nor wave from a palace balcony. They are reserved instead for a Roman spike that will staple them to a Roman cross. Sleep deeply, tiny eyes.

Sleep while you can. For soon the blurriness will clear and you will see the mess we have made of your world.
You will see our nakedness, for we cannot hide.
You will see our selfishness,for we cannot give.
You will see our pain, for we cannot heal.
O eyes that will see hell’s darkest pit and witness her ugly prince . . . sleep, please sleep; sleep while you can. Lay still, tiny mouth. Lay still mouth from which eternity will speak. Tiny tongue that will soon summon the dead, that will define grace, that will silence our foolishness.
Rosebud lips upon which ride a starborn kiss of forgiveness to those who believe you, and of death to those who deny you lay still. And tiny feet cupped in the palm of my hand, rest. For many difficult steps lie ahead for you…

Do you feel the cold sea water upon which you will walk?
Do you wrench at the invasion of the nail you will bear?
Do you fear the steep descent down the spiral staircase into Satan’s domain? Rest, tiny feet. Rest today so that tomorrow you might walk with power. Rest. For millions will follow in your steps. And little heart . . . holy heart . . . pumping the blood of life through the universe: How many times will we break you?

You’ll be torn by the thorns of our accusations.
You’ll be ravaged by the cancer of our sin.
You’ll be crushed under the weight of your own sorrow.
And you’ll be pierced by the spear of our rejection.

Yet in that piercing, in that ultimate ripping of muscle and membrane, in that final rush of blood and water, you will find rest. Your hands will be freed, your eyes will see justice, your lips will smile, and your feet will carry you home. And there you’ll rest again—this time in the embrace of your Father.

The Corbett Christmas Letter for 2007 (PDF)

Category: Archive, Books, Holiday, Misc, Personal | No Comments »
Tags: archive, book, brenda, Corbett Christmas Letter, family, katelyn, pdf, rich, taylor

Posted By RichC on December 23, 2007

The timing belt replacement is the bane of Volkswagen TDI ownership — partially due to the complexity and cost of servicing, yet it needs to be taken seriously as in any zero-clearance engine. Understanding what’s included in changing timing belts of any car can help one better understand what should be included in this service.

Pat Goss reviewed timing belts on in a current episode of Motorweek, and although the reference is not TDI specific, the . Due to improving the timing belts, the life of a belt is much longer, but what other replacement parts need to be considered?

For many small diesel owners, the timing belt change can be the single most costly service they encounter, and it can quickly increase the cost of ownership. We know that recommended service on earlier TDI can be as low as 40,000 miles or in later models as high as 100,000, so it is important to note these service intervals. If you are an ambitious weekend mechanic and have access to special VW oriented tools, the extensive repair can be done at home. You might want to observe someone else doing a timing belt change first, either in person or on video since the service is relatively extensive. Parts and kits are available from TDI specific vendor — I’ve mention two sources in an earlier post.

For those of you spending the big bucks at you local dealership to have this service done, you might note the number of bearings, waterpump, fuel injection pump, etc that are managed by the timing belt in the below video clip. (not a TDI displayed) THEN think about accessing this belt while the engine is IN the car … you’ll soon realize why it is costly and more importantly why it is important to replace the idlers, waterpump, etc when changing the timing belt. Its better to replace a half worn $50 water pump when the engine is apart than having to do it a few thousand miles after you replace the belt!

Category: Automotive, Diesel, Volkswagen | No Comments »
Tags: diesel, parts, repair, tdi, timing belt, video, volkswagen

Posted By RichC on December 22, 2007

Our backporch project is S-L-O-W-L-Y progressing; about the only thing slower is the airplane project!
😀
The slightly warmer weather this week permitted our contractor a window to pour and stamp concrete although we are in for a change come tonight. Nevertheless, I’m glad to at least get the concrete poured!

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Tags: addition, back porch, backporch, construction, house, project

Posted By RichC on December 21, 2007

Although I didn’t watch it on NBC TV … or even pay all that much attention to it, the “Clash of the Choirs” reality show saw Nick Lachey’s Team Cincinnati come out on top. (article) In an impressive cappella rendition of Flight of the Bumblebee (video below), the 20 person choir from Cincinnati stunned even their competitors. In a connection that is close to home, several members of the choir were associated with our local Lakota schools. Great job Lisa Baldwin, April Hilen, Christy Ledden and Lakota math teacher Chuck Merk!

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