Contemplating the history Fed hikes and recessions

Posted By on May 4, 2023

While waiting for the big TWO TRILLION dollar company that is Apple ($AAPL) to report earning after hours on Thursday (story), I’m contemplating the likely outcome of accelerated interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Obviously concluding that “inflation in transitory,” as the Fed Chair commented after the pandemic, was the incorrect assumption … and it looks as if the latest panic to rapidly slow the overheating economy is now creating a banking confindence problem

Fed Fund rates 2002 - 2023

It is never as simple as “one thing” though … as “sticky” inflation has a lot to do with poor management of banks (as in the past), the stupidity in our government when it comes to handing out money as if it grew on trees, spending money we don’t have calling it an Inflation Reduction Act, and targeting America’s energy producers while begging our adversaries to pump more oil. Of course Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a easy scapegoat and distraction … as was/is the unwillingness of Americans to live within their means … or even go to work

Nevertheless, trying to slow inflation, deal with the U.S. deficit and debt, and shore-up our underfunded entitlement programs … all the while trying to keep the economy growing, get reelected and prevent a recession.  These are just the economic challenges that face the POTUS and those running our government in Washington DC; the success or failure wiil impact everyone living in American and likely the world. 

Recessions in the past

These charts are worth thinking about: Will the rapid rate of increase do more than stress community and regional banks and trigger a recession as it often does?


Desultory - des-uhl-tawr-ee, -tohr-ee

  1. lacking in consistency, constancy, or visible order, disconnected; fitful: desultory conversation.
  2. digressing from or unconnected with the main subject; random: a desultory remark.
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