Dealing with rising prices and the Fed hitting the brakes

| April 23, 2022

As the Fed finally starts to deal with inflation, the market took note this month and seems to be selling off across the board. The expectation is that the economy will slow and as they say in the investing world, “don’t fight the Fed.” There isn’t a silver bullet that can keep businesses booming, paychecks […]

War, inflation, recession, oil prices and inverted yield curves

| March 26, 2022

The “pain at the pump” is definitely real if you are buying fuel and if you have spend the last decade with gas and diesel at 40+% lower than we are seeing today. That said, in inflation-adjusted dollars, we are still off the highest per barrel prices that we have seen (chart below). Most oil […]

Inflation, rising food and fuel prices could trigger a recession

| March 12, 2022

Nobody wants to really hear or see anymore written about inflation. We’ve all seen it with our own two eyes and our wallets have felt it since the Biden administration took office. No more though than the last couple of weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine as the  West’s political miscalculations and head-in-the-tar-sands polices have made […]

Inflation Hot? (Part 2): Inverted Yield Curve and Recession

| February 12, 2022

Although this is really not a smooth continuation from yesterday’s “Inflation Hot” post, the financial and economic theme remains the same … so it will be considered “part 2.” The post left off with trying to stop inflation in the 1980s and forcing a recession, actually “back to back recessions.” We can all hope that […]

Inflation Hot? Stop it with a recession or two. (Part 1)

| February 11, 2022

It is pretty obvious to most consumers that even with years of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates low, printing money and Congress spending, inflation remained in check at under 2%. Unfortunately after the last round of easy money policies during the pandemic, business shutdowns and government giving away money, this is no longer true. […]

Down, Down, Down the stock market goes on #COVID19 fears

| March 11, 2020

Although I suspect all the selling on Wall Street has to do with needed cash or the “sell and re-assess later” attitude, I’ve been puzzled that gold (usual safe haven) and utilities have been hit as well. Personally I thought these areas might balance exposure to industrials, tech and energy. Obviously not as Wednesday’s market […]

How prepared are we for the next economic downturn?

| November 13, 2018

After Monday’s selloff (see below), what lies ahead for the U.S. economy? That thought has some of seriously thinking the next economic downturn could come sooner rather than as expected … later. The sell off … "again" … has me wondering if we are prepared for the next recession? Is the U.S., or the world, […]

Predicting the end of the bull market and how to prepare

| July 8, 2018

As the current bull stock market gets long in the tooth (average is 7 years, we’re now closing in on 9 years), financial analysts are beginning to write regularly about preparing for the next slowdown. Few are declaring it over at this moment, but most advise prudence as it comes to what investments are being […]

Predictors of the next recession: Inverted yield curve?

| June 26, 2018

How does on plan for the flattening yield curve – or even inversion (spread between 10-yr and 2-yr Treasury Bonds)? Barron’s – June 2018: “Inversion has an amazing record of forecasting recession…but stocks have typically continued to rise (sometimes sharply) after the inversion with a median gain of 13.1%.…Bottom line: the flattening yield curve is […]

Fed Minutes indicate little reason to raise interest rates in June

| May 20, 2015

The Federal Reserve officials doubted they would be ready to raise short-term interest rates by midyear, according to minutes of the meeting released Wednesday. Fed officials, along with most economists, are struggling to make sense of a first-quarter economic slowdown. The normal pattern of post-recession growth has been non-existent as job growth has been tepid […]

Pension plans continue to fall behind as stock market gains

| January 10, 2015

One would think that a “rising tide lifts all boats” when it comes to gains for financial markets, but that is not the case for conservatively managed U.S. pension funds. The strong stock market returns during 2013 and 2014 have helped most individual investors recover from the 2008 financial collapse, so as long as they […]

Recession Remedy: Do something different with your life

| July 26, 2013

These are the kinds of stories that I need to keep away from my job-seeking son … but that I would have used as “dream material” when in high school or college! ESCAPING THE RECESSION BY BOAT When the Great Recession hit, young people found a million different ways to cope with their battered job […]

Are automaker’s stock prices forecasting a double-dip recession?

| July 23, 2012

I’ve noticed that Americans have been buying a few more new cars this year and that after a few lean years car manufacturers “were” starting to feel the recession ending. Now that sounds like good news, eh? (below: first half 2012 sales increase or decrease based on a new car sales price … all up […]

Dow Jones Industrial lower for 5th straight week

| June 3, 2011

The Dow Jones Industrial average continued its slide back towards 12,000 and most other indices followed suit. Unfortunately the stream of negative news relating to the economy has been pressuring buyers to either remain on the sidelines or sell shares in all but a few hot IPO offerings. From companies slow to hire new workers, […]

If the dollar is worth less, is the economy really improving?

| April 29, 2011

Call me a negative Nellie, but one has to wonder if we are really seeing much of an economic recovery? With prices rising, inflation looming (if not already here) and the buying power of the dollar severely weakened over the past year, how will Americans perceive those elected and appointed to guide the United States […]

Rapidly rising fuel prices renew double dip recession concerns

| March 1, 2011

The pain at the pump over high fuel prices will most likely slow the pace of our tepid economic recovery. For Americans fortunate enough to be fully employed, that means spending more dollars on fuel and less in other areas that might have hired a new workers. For businesses that mean a higher cost of […]

Economic news continues to be depressing

| February 4, 2010

The Dow Jones Industrials moved down over 270 points on Thursday as the economy stumbles yet again despite the promises of recovery from those spending taxpayer dollars in Washington. The move from equities by investors and traders is likely due to a rise in U.S. unemployment claims (up 8000 last week or 480,000 new claims) […]

Desultory - des-uhl-tawr-ee, -tohr-ee

  1. lacking in consistency, constancy, or visible order, disconnected; fitful: desultory conversation.
  2. digressing from or unconnected with the main subject; random: a desultory remark.
My Desultory Blog