Contemplating the history Fed hikes and recessions

| May 4, 2023

While waiting for the big TWO TRILLION dollar company that is Apple ($AAPL) to report earning after hours on Thursday (story), I’m contemplating the likely outcome of accelerated interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Obviously concluding that “inflation in transitory,” as the Fed Chair commented after the pandemic, was the incorrect assumption … and […]

Federal Reserve hikes: “despite a .. recession later this year”

| April 12, 2023

Guess when this Fed news came out?  High inflation and tight labor markets led Federal Reserve officials to signal they could raise interest rates at their next meeting despite a higher likelihood the economy would enter a recession later this year. Fed officials considered skipping a rate increase at their meeting last month but concluded […]

The stock market begins the trading year 2022 with a roar

| January 3, 2022

Even with all the negativity around Covid19 and the rapidly spreading, but somewhat more tolerated, Omicron variant … investors chose to shrug off what looks to slow down the economic re-openings around the world. The saying I keep hearing is that “I’m done with it.” My view for the strong stock market start on the […]

Investors are concerned as the Fed tapers and inflation rises

| October 16, 2021

A friend contemplating rolling over his 401K to an IRA asked me a bond investing question the other day as he would like to balance his portfolio of stocks by adding some bonds after the rollover. Since he has never owned a bond (outside of a managed fund), the question was, “what’s the impact of […]

Do you build or buy a new house this year or put it off?

| March 18, 2021

Real estate has been on a tear in many markets as the coronavirus has people moving from cities to the suburbs and their own piece of land. In my opinion it is not just COVID19 related, but that fact that cities aren’t as secure or as tax friendly to live in, especially on the east […]

Low inflation. Will it continue? It depends on who you ask.

| January 5, 2020

An interesting take on “inflation” and how different generations perceive the possibility of it accelerating in the next decade or so … and perhaps the effect it can or will have on our lives. For example, in the graph below, pick your birth year and note the color bars to determine how many years of […]

Oil drops to $59/bbl. Will it change the inflation forecast?

| February 9, 2018

With the rapid drop in oil prices, and equal "10% correction" in the overall stock market, will improving wages offset by falling commodities (oil) cause the Federal Reserve rethink their concern that inflation is picking up? Current thoughts were that we could see three quarter point rate hikes in 2018 if the economy continues to […]

Desultory - des-uhl-tawr-ee, -tohr-ee

  1. lacking in consistency, constancy, or visible order, disconnected; fitful: desultory conversation.
  2. digressing from or unconnected with the main subject; random: a desultory remark.
My Desultory Blog