My Desultory Blog

Posted By RichC on September 29, 2005

Frank Giovinazzi in his 9/29 podcast on Car Buyers Notebook discusses VW Chairman Bernd Pischetsrieder strong statement in January of ’05 that “diesels were the best hope for conserving petroleum.”

Recently, Frank reviewed a Ford 250 Powerstroke diesel and that got me fired up to write him about our VW TDIs. I know he is in California, but his 52,000 listeners are all over the country. Anyway he was quick to comment with the same questions all of us wonder … with such great cars, weak sales, gas prices and one of the only US players in the diesel car market … why doesn’t VW market TDIs better in the US?

I don’t believe Frank Giovinazzi has enough hands on experience to comment knowledgeably about VW TDIs, but I enjoyed hearing him reply via podcast anyway. 🙂 He is currently stuck on a ‘bigger is better’ trend … it will change. (click here to listen to his .mp3 podcast)

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Posted By RichC on September 28, 2005

There has been a fair amount of discussion racing around the media in regard to where the world sits in relation to the amount of fossil fuel is left … as well as what impact our burning it has on global warming. I doubt anyone has the ability to predict ‘Peak Oil‘, let alone the repercussion of using fossil fuels in regard to global warming? Nevertheless, the debates and information available from them is interesting.

What we do know is that recent hurricanes, Katrina and Rita, along with increased worldwide demand on crude oil has rapidly increased prices and concern over shortages. I couple of recent economic numbers have reflected interestingly as to the short term for fossil fuels. (and most likely will be refective in prices for alternatives) Just days after Rita came ashore and disabled (at least in the short term) a quarter of our nation’s refining capacity, a report was out that gasoline inventories were up 4.4 million barrels. At first look … this is good news, but unfortunately what this surplus refected was the increase imports the US received after Katrina. More than likely this surplus is already gone. Prepare for higher fuel prices and potential shortages as companies work to get refineries up and running again.

A second crisis, that of shortages of natural gas, has yet to hit our citizens; for many of us it will not be noticed until the heating bills start to arrive. Last winter 50% of all US homes heated with natural gas and we all have already experienced substantially higher prices than in previous years. This year it is estimated that we will see bills 50% higher than last year!

Analysts are saying that this potentially loss of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to drive up prices. A real concern is what we don’t know in regards to natural gas infrastruture damage. For example, Katrina caused significant damage to Royal Dutch Shell PLC’s Mars platform, which produces around 250,000 barrels a day of crude oil and 365 million cubic feet of gas a day; about 40 other platforms were also damaged significantly, though they were smaller facilities.

“By Tuesday, more than 4 billion cubic feet a day, or 42 percent, of the region’s natural gas production remained shut down and 67.6 billion cubic feet of output has been lost since Aug. 26,” according to the federal Minerals Management Service.

This time of year most utility companies usually are increasing their underground storage of natural gas in order to prepare for winter demand. Unlike the Strategic Petroleum Reserves, the U.S. does not have an emergency stockpile of natural gas so the pain could be very real.

One energy expert was quoted to say that”Natural gas is the one commodity here that I have very little to say about in the way of good news.” On Tuesday, natural gas futures slipped 3.4 cents to settle at $11.657 per 1,000 cubic feet. A year ago natural gas futures traded below $5. One forecasting model for an energy trading company has shown the potential for $15 per 1,000 cubic feet of natural gas if there is any additional significant damage to underwater pipeline in the Gulf of Mexico.

Quite the change … perhaps it might be a good idea to insulate and caulk a few windows and doors, wrap your pipes and pick up a couple of portable alternative heaters?

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Posted By RichC on September 26, 2005

Thank you Tony Hispie of Worthington, Ohio (photo) for putting together a first Ohio Biodiesel get together at his home. Everyone enjoy the informative time together; it was impressive to see so many people anxious to talk “Biodiesel.” I had an opportunity to demo the titration section of the gathering of over 50 people. The weather was a tad rainy as the gathering started but finished dry and comfortable. There is a group photo available for those interested over at the CinciTDI website’s biodiesel section.

SmokinBubba (see Ohio section of Biodieselnow.com) and his family went overboard in setting up and explaining the ‘appleseed’ processor. His pre-processed tankful of biodiesel was a great way show how well the $25.00 Harbor Freight pump worked in filling up his mist washing tank. (and the shower demonstration was good too! You had to be there.) The mist washing was excellent as was his extra labor in preparing KOH for those looking to purchase along with kits. IMHO his local provisioning of kits for people needs to be supported by people in our area as Bubba has done much of the legwork in pricing. (although Maria Alovert [GirlMark] wasn’t here … she would have been proud of the gathering reminiscent of her own. For those wanting her book … check this link.)

Check out the Link “Biodiesel FAQ” by Graydon Blair for some quick answers to biodiesel and homebrewing.

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Posted By RichC on September 22, 2005

Delta Airlines, the nation’s third largest, is planning to cut 7,000 to 9,000 jobs and reduce domestic capacity by 15% to 20% as part of a restructuring plan. Management is hoping that this will save the airline $3 billion a year and help reduce debt while under the protection of bankruptcy.

Delta stated in June that it had 65,000 employees but has recently commented that total number of employees was 52,000. The Chief Executive, Gerald Grinstein, said that the plan calls for cutting up to 9,000 jobs by the end of 2007. The company will lower management salaries, by 25% to 15% and force the remaining staff to take a 7 to 10% pay reduction.

This new round of ‘bankruptcy restructuring’ cuts is on top of the roughly 24,000 that Delta has already eliminated since the terrorist attack in 2001.

Mr. Grinstein was quoted as saying that his goal is to “save Delta in the near term, so that it can compete and win in the long term.” He said the effort will protect Delta from the threats posed by its competitors and make the company profitable in just over two years.

The airline has lost $10 billion dollars since January 2001 and as is the case with all airlines has been hampered by the high price of jet fuel.

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Posted By RichC on September 20, 2005

The Agricultural and Biological Engineering department at Ohio State University has been experimenting with ‘waste’ energy research using bovine ‘juiced’ fuel cells. According to Ann Christy, an Associate Professor at OSU, the bacteria in manure can be harnessed to produce electrical energy.

In the bovine gastric juice, the organisms in one half liter can generate 600mV of electricity, but it is not easy to ‘plug’ into a cows belly. The next best thing would be to use the fecal matter. Researchers were able to ‘pack’ a fuel cell with this material and continuously supply electrical power for over 30days without a drop in voltage.

Students at the OSU agricultural and biological engineering school were quick to admit that the size of the fuel cell and amount of ‘juice’ (electrical energy) produced was low in comparison to other chemical processes, but that it is possible to produce electricity from cow manure. “Although it’s too early to tell if this kind of fuel cell can produce significantly more electricity,” said Christy, “the fact that the [stomach] fluid worked in our study means that there are additional electricity-producing microbes that we have yet to identify.”

See Ohio State University Research News.

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Posted By RichC on September 19, 2005

Bernd Pischetsrider in a quote from today’s WSJ stated that after so many years of enjoying 50% growth through the 90s, particularly in US demand for the VW Jetta and New Beetle, that VW management really wasn’t listening to what the customer wanted. VW’s new policy will be to ask the question: “how does it help the customer and will the customer pay for it. When we have a test drive, the question is not whether I like it. It’s will the customer pay for it? Or will the customer not even notice.”

Audi, Skoda and Seat will no longer make product investment decisions on their own. They will include top managers like Mr. Pischetsrider who will first decide if the market is there for the decisions are made and “which market niche they want to attack.” They will then ask “is this a niche for brand A, B, C or D?”

Perhaps I’m stretching it here, but noticing in a few prior articles that “there has been a massive interest in demand for the Jetta diesel” in the US according to statements made by Len Hunt, the top U.S. executive for the Volkswagen brand, but maybe that means we’ll get a few more models? Hunt states, “Initially we thought diesel demand might be 15 percent of the Jetta sales in the U.S. and it’s more than 20 percent already and rising. It was under way before, but Katrina has accelerated it.”

Volkswagen has been short inventory of US diesel cars and is has commented that it is particularly short Jettas with “automatic transmissions because traditional diesel buyers prefer a manual gearbox.” Len Hunt states that “many of the new buyers are first-time diesel owners.” I personally believe that the DSG gearbox available in the New Jetta might make a difference too? Texans, which has the largest number of pickup truck buyers that are often diesels, have been quick to purchase the new Jettas with diesels. Sales of TDIs in Texas have more than doubled to about 30 percent of VWoA car sales in that state.

Volkswagen is also working with Archer Daniels Midland in testing diesel models to see if they can operate properly using diesel fuel that is composed of 20 percent renewable components such as soybean oil (see article). Current models are only approved with 5 percent biodiesel (B5), but with the pressure to reduce dependence on foriegn oil see potential in possibly approving a 20% blend. (B20)

Volkswagen is not the only company interested in promoting clean diesel vehicles in the US. DaimlerChrysler AG’s Dieter Zetsche, who will take over as chief executive in January when Juergen Schrempp retires, has said U.S. demand for Jeep Liberty SUV and Mercedes E-Class sedan with diesels was already exceeding initial expectations before the hurricane as gasoline prices rose. Zetsche was head of Chrysler and now leads the Mercedes Car Group.

Mercedes sold 470 diesel versions of the E-Class in August, a “significant” increase from the 250 to 300 diesel models it normally sells, according to U.S. Mercedes chief Paul Halata. He credits the oil shock of the 1980s with helping attracting U.S. buyers to Mercedes in the first place and at one point driving diesels to 70 percent of U.S. sales.

Hopefully those of us seeing the efficient diesel improving the US energy picture will see continued growth in both the vehicle choice and the fuels. If Bernd Pischetsrieder is listening to what the market is indicating here in the US, he needs to start bring us a few more diesel models to the US … and soon.

BTW … several other European manufacturers have announced that they intend to export diesels to the US and are undergoing US federalization. I’m anxious to see something from Audi, as they have announced that the A6 is slated for the 2008 model year.

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Posted By RichC on September 18, 2005

Great reason to drive a great car: For the 9th year, BMW and the Susan G. Kormen Breast Cancer Foundation have teamed up to support breast cancer research, education, screening and treatment.

All you have to do to help is test drive one of the special BMW’s on Oct 4th. Just choose your favorite BMW and take it for a spin. BMW will donate $1.00 to the Susan G. Kormen Foundation for every mile you drive!

To reserve your test drive at the BMW Store on Oct 4th, just call 1-877-4-A-Drive.

Experience the exhilaration of driving a new BMW while joining the fight against breast cancer. In partnership with the Susan G. Komen Breast Cancer Foundation, BMW organizes an annual event, The Ultimate Drive®, to raise money for breast cancer research and outreach programs. Choose a vehicle, take it for a drive, and we’ll donate $1 per mile on your behalf to the Susan G. Komen Breast Cancer Foundation, our partner in raising over $8 million for research in the past eight years. All the information you need to participate is right here, including easy, on-line registration. Sign up today. Together we can turn the corner on breast cancer. Call 1-877-4-A-DRIVE to register.

The Pink Ribbon Collection – show you care with style. Help BMW in the fight against breast cancer. BMW Lifestyle has a line of merchandise, specially-labeled to be distributed at The Ultimate Drive® and through participating BMW centers. For every item purchased, eighty percent of the gross profits are donated to the Susan G. Komen foundation for research and outreach programs.

Information provided by my friend Dave Lewis at the Cincinnati BMW Store.

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Posted By RichC on September 15, 2005

Cincinnati-based Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) slipped more than 6% this Thursday morning after a disappointing financial update and seven … SEVEN … analyst downgrades. Not only did P&G warn that the consumer business was weak, Delta Airline file for bankrupcy protection, but the once well run bank is now exposing its weak management as banking conditions tighten.

In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission released ahead of a presentation to analysts late Wednesday, the company said it expected compression in net interest margins as the direction of interest rates hurt its business.

“We simply think there are better ideas in the regional bank/thrift group. This is not a sell call, as we see value here longer-term, but the risk/reward just isn’t compelling enough to warrant fresh money to the stock,” AG Edwards analyst David George concluded Thursday.

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Posted By RichC on September 14, 2005

The number three airline, Delta Airlines (DAL) proceeds with bankrupcy protection as suspected and stock prices closes the day at 78 cents. Northwest Airlines (NWAC) closes at $1.87 as it to joins Delta in filing Chapter 11 bankrupcy today as well; indications are that its stock will open a dollar lower on Thursday.

Considering Delta is the major airline that hubs in Cincinnati, there may be a concern in regard to flight interuptions. Passengers most likely will not notice any service disruption as the airline intends to operate flights as usual. Be advised though, as a ticket holder that you are considered a creditor and will be at the bottom of the pile in attempting to collect on any dollars that might be due to you in the event the company collapses.

High fuel prices are credited as the final straw for these two Airlines. Delta is based out of Atlanta and has a “crushing debt load of more than $20 billion” and one of the industry’s biggest underfunded pension burdens. It will be highly unlikely that either will be able to recover without government intervention.

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Posted By RichC on September 14, 2005

The last major release in ‘razor hype’ from Gillette was the the “Mach 3” in 1998. They have had several other added components like batteries, and lubrication strips but today’s announcement is a big move, as they move past the Shick branded “Quattro” 4 bladed razor. The new “Fusion” razor will not only contain 5 blades that are closely spaced, two lubricated strips, but the battery version will has a microprocessor chip that will monitor battery power and even optimize the ‘vibration component. (also it will tell you went to change the battery – Gillette brand of course!)

For those needing to be on the “cutting edge” (pun intended) of shaving technology … the new Gillette Fusion is your razor. 🙂 The manual version (pictured above)will be available in North America in the first quarter of 2006 and has a retail price of $9.99 with two cartridges. The power model hits stores at the same time and comes with a one cartridge and a AAA battery for $11.99.

Gillette (G) is trading at down slightly at $53.50 on this announcement. The Proctor and Gamble purchase of Gillette is still on track. This will create an even bigger powerhouse in the consumer product industry.

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