My Desultory Blog

Posted By RichC on July 11, 2005

EAA Chapter 284 had another great meeting on Sunday afternoon. The weather was warm and atomsphere at Red Stewart field enjoyable. As always, I enjoy the feeling of stepping back in time surrounded by flying antique aircraft and the the rustic grass field (40I) that many taildraggers call home. Long live Red Stewart Field. 🙂

After our cookout of burger, brats and a variety of side items we enjoyed an informative talk and question/answer conversation with Frank Black on ‘rotorcrafts. He explained the many advantages of his unique designs and was pretty convincing that the ‘rotorfan’ jet aircraft will eventually be used in place of traditional blades found on helicopters, etc in improving vertical flight. The model Modus Verticraft was shown (see photo) to demostrate the Jet Limousine possiblity of this design. The high lift rotorfan concept allows the blades to be retracted for horizonal high speed flight and extended slightly for low speed vertical flight and manuvering. Theoretically the Verticraft could exceed all helicopter designs todate and cruise in excess of 600 knots at altitudes up to 35,000 ft. For those of us in attendance, it was a real treat as the concept is something seriously in our future.

Our thanks to Frank for giving us a great survey from his many years of study into ‘better’ rotorcrafts. His building, flying experience and research was quite impressive, in fact impressive enough for him to have received a couple patents and the ear of the United States military.

He is a longtime member of the Cincinnati Rotorcraft club that meets east of the city and has had membership struggles just like most aviation clubs. New, ambious ‘younger’ members are not always easy to find … don’t we know it.

Before leaving the airfield, we also had the chance to take a look at a recently aquired Pitts project down a couple doors from our chapter hanger. It was a great find on ‘Trade-a-Plane” and looks to be in excellent shape. From what we could tell, the workmanship was excellent.

I did have an opportunity to take a few photos of Pat Letarte as he fly home; I forwarded the full sized photos to him, but will include a couple here since flying always tops off a chapter meeting. Great meeting, great food, great people.

Category: Aviation | No Comments »
Tags: eaa284, flying, red stewart

Posted By RichC on July 8, 2005

* Year to Date figures for VW in the Americas
Painfully for VW, its a continual release of news from reporters covering the VW scandel and lousy business performance. Just today another article was in published in (July 8, 2005) Wallstreet Journal.

In summary (and opinion) of the many articles I’ve read over the last several days, I’ve concluded that VW has an long uphill climb, not easily recognized from a US perspective. As Stephen Power, a WSJ reporter, indicates, “much of Germany is riveted by an investigation in to bribery allegations at VWAG” and the internal shake up happening “behind the scenes at Europe’s largest car maker in terms of sales.”

Much of Germany’s debate is whether to keep Gerhard Schroder as chancellor … but to many, attempting to figure out how to keep VW from losing money is even more critical. The problem stems from “poor product quality, underutilized plants and German auto-manufacturing wages – the highest in the world.” One major problem is that the US division of VW accounts for 60% of unit sales and had a shocking 52 million dollar lost last year … in part due to Dave’s slumping stellar sales. I added that last bit to see who is still reading. 🙂 Most likely the real impact is slumping US auto sales and the difficulty in selling a retooled VW lineup against the heavily discounted ’employee pricing’ marketed brands. The US sales problem for VW is that their sales have fallen 24% in the last year … over what was not necessarily a stellar previous year.

Volkswagen AG has hired a American educated DaimlerChrysler AG guy, Wolfgang Bernhard, and charge him with the turning VW around in both quality and profitablity. At the Chysler Group he did this with slashing costs in production development. Little is being said publicly about his ideas, but concerns between labor in Germany with a 11.6% unemployment rate and high Eurodollar-to-other currency exchange rates will make moving more jobs overseas (ie. Mexico, etc) a necessity although complicated task when dealing with German labor. This problem has been faced by US automakers, but is particularly a problem in Europe in that the largest shareholder is the German state of Lower Saxony … which in keeping with German law require half the seats on the company board to be worker representatives. (again … at a time of 11.6% German unemployment.)

Obviously the bribery scandel is adding fuel to the fire. The allegations are that top Volkswagen officials paid bribes to the company’s top labor leaders as a way to secure cooperation in contract negotiations. Their is also allegations the these Volkswagen officials themselves accepted bribes from parts suppliers. What a mess. The scandel and poor performance is bound to have an effect on management and we are already beginning to see the rats jumping ship. Klaus Volkert, head of the works council, unexpectedly resigned but has denied any criminal wrongdoing.

The industry analysis have pretty much concluded that success at VW will depend on the willingness to cut jobs as capacity is only at 81% which is far below their competitors. (93 and 95% for Toyota and RenaultSA) According to Stephen Cheetham an analysis with Sanford Bernstein, any decisions to cut jobs “has implications for the whole of Germany and German employment.”

VW has made a decided push to improve quality, it has yet to have been seen, but is part of Bernhard’s focus. Seemingly his goal is to raise quality and reduce complexity in Volkswagen cars. The move toward a ‘premium brand’ has not worked well and sales of the popular Golf have fallen as well. He has told his engineers not to worry about keeping up with brands like Mercedes-Benz and focus on competing on value with Toyotas that have been gobbling up European marketshare. (Reminds me of US automakers?) Mr. Bernhard has told his engineers to review their new models and find way to eliminate needless frills. According to the Volkswagen spokesman, Mr. Grosse-Leege, Berharhard says to the staff, “we have to cut this amount of cost from the car or we’re are not going to build the car” He goes on to indicate that “the Japanese are attacking Europe … and that we are going to have to fight them.”

A continual message is “quality,” and Bernhard delivered a “blunt message to VW workers” that they need to raise quality. A bonus structure is being offered to managers that is tied to quality improvements.

There is no question that VW as a whole is in an uphill climb. There quality is lagging, sales are down, desired models unavailable and inefficient German labor connections already experiencing high unemployment dragging on a turnaround. Add to this the allegations of bribes that go both ways along with a management shake up and making VW profitable again becomes even more of a challenge.

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Posted By RichC on July 7, 2005

The comment from a shaky Abigail Milner (15 meters from a London blast) asked the question poised by many: “Why?”

It is difficult to understand the desire terrorist choosing to kill civilians in exposing their hate for our way of life. It only proves to continually show their cold blooded murdering ways throughout the world. At some point those building democratic governments with assistance of coalitions actions, will value freedom for their children and be the biggest help in this war. Stay the course as it is one that will eventually be the way to defeat worldwide terror.

For those of ‘ours’ on the front lines combating terror … please keep the pressure on those committing these atrocities and stamp out those spreading their idiologies. If you needed a shot in the arm to continuing your mission, these kinds of heartless actions by our enemies should help your resolve that your battle is honorable.

The fight is not only against the insurgents in Iraq and Afganistan (or the special forces missions), but a fight to eliminate the training of terrorist and their leaders from preventing these kinds of attacks. (including those in a defensive posture here at home) Passivism that believes these horrific terrorist actions will stop if we backdown and disengage from the places terrorists are most active, IMHO would only give a free pass for growing and continuing even bigger and more damaging attacks. Let’s use these cowardly acts to step up the fight, build an even more agressive coalition of those respecting human life to eliminate those chosing violence against civilians. As Britian’s Prime Minister stated this morning, “We shall prevail, and they shall not.”

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Posted By RichC on July 5, 2005

About a week ago my daughter and I took a weekend trip to Chicago primarily to take in the Nextfest. We had a great time and some steamy hot summer weather. Prior to the doors opening on the Navy Pier we had a breakfast downtown and walk down the 3100 foot structure that makes its way out into Lake Michigan. Its an impressive structure and offer quite the view of the city for those who have never been there.

I particularly enjoyed the sailboats rounding the end of the pier and special time spent with my beautiful daughter. 🙂

The Nextfest is a display of technology not unlike the Worlds’ Fairs of many years ago. About 30,000 people attended this years Nextfext from June 24 -26th and experienced everything from the latest in electric cars (ie. The pride of OSU’s Buckeye Bullet) to the commercial experimentation with Hydrogen fuel cells.

Although this particular car isn’t something we see on the road yet, GM had several current Hydrogen models that looked a bit more conservative, from the minivan to the Hummer. If your taste was a bit smaller, there was a Smartcar on display as well as several other vehicles.

I was of course drawn to things that fly such as the AMV-211 that I posted on before and the M400 Skycar from Moller International. According to the information, this 350mph flying comuter will be available by 2009 and run on alcohol.

NASA had several exhibits as well. From their current advancements in spacesuit technology to robotics. The scaled model for the next generation space plane as well as several solar sail deployment options were also on display.

Computer technology and interfaces were everywhere as well. From video games that you become part of on the big screen to tiny PDA’s with cameras where a virtual train is controlled on a track.

There were displays of artificial intelligence and new forms of explosive detection. One particularly interesting interface was in mind control of a computer. The one below is a competition between two players who struggle to slow mind activity. The one who can relax their mind the most is able to push the ball toward the other player.

All in all, Katelyn and I had a great weekend in Chicago. Its a great city and the Nextfest made it truly worthwhile. (although even without that there was plenty to do) Katelyn enjoyed some shopping, I enjoyed just sitting in the air conditioned greenhouse (see below) and we both enjoy eating outside overlooking Grant Park at Bubba Gumps. Our biggest problem was staying cool and the heat eventually encouraged us to take in an afternoon IMAX movie: Batman Begins. Not that I’m an avid movie goer … but this was a great movie!

Category: Automotive, Aviation, Personal, Photos, Technology | 9 Comments »
Tags: chicago, katelyn, navy pier, nextfest, wired

Posted By RichC on July 1, 2005

I’ll get a jump on the weekend with a couple of Independence Day suggestions:

If you’ve never owned a US flag make this year the year to show your pride and appreciation for our country. It is a good way to reflect and remember those that founded, fought and continue to protect this great nation of ours, as well as a symbol of our national unity to others. Although Americans differ in how we see the virtues of our country preserved, I believe most are thankful for where we live and the opportunities being an American offer us. This was reinforced in listening to my son when I picked him up from the airport after returning from Romania last night. Indulge me …

Taylor, my high school sophomore, returned from spending a couple of weeks working with handicapped children in Constanta, Romania (with my brother-in-law’s outreach ministry, Romanian Handicapped Ministries). The experience for a normal self centered suburban teenager was far better than I expected. He came home with an appreciation for his American wealth and shared with me a heart of compassion for those he worked with. He (and I) really had very little concept of what living in Romania, that on the surface seems civilized, but underneath is corrupt and uncaring.

I expected that in working with ‘throw away’ people in Constanta (it is how they view the handicapped), that he would have compassion for humankind and develop an appreciation for how fortunate his life is. What I didn’t expect was that he would observed the overall cultural differences that is truly self centered and uncaring. (some by necessity… survival of the fittest) His ability to compare what he knows of most Americans (even as self-centered as we are) to those he observed in Romania was a stark contrast. I was surprised at this, thinking we Americans are often uncaring and unmoved. His opinion was that it is a rare American that is without heart, but it was a rare Romanian that hand any compassion or caring for those less fortune.

He observed the extraordinary split in economic classes; there were those with noticeable wealth such as the organized crime syndicates as well as the street gypsies. He talked about the Bentleys, Mercedes and exotic sports cars seen in the midst of the poverty that was everywhere. Although there were people with noticeable wealth, there was a seemingly an uncaring attitude for the conditions around them; almost as if it were not even noticed. It is ‘just’ normal???

The family that my son worked most closely with was one with Downs Syndrome. They were in a two bedroom house/apartment with and outdoor kitchen and bathroom. Besides the medical care offered by RHM, visitor plan field trips to get them out, arts and craft activities and just socialization with the children and their families were part of their days. Most families and handicapped kids/adults were amazed that someone even cared about them. “I was sick and you took care of me. Just as you did it to one of the least of these who are members of my family, you did it to me.” Matthew 25:40

There has been change in the area over the past 5 years since Jerry established RHM. The daycenter offering health services and minimal job training is still small, but is able to offer at least some medical care and checkups to the handicapped of Costanza. This Black Sea port town has become a staging stop for our military personnel and has experienced a influx of American dollars. Unfortunately it also exacerbates the difference in wealth between the officials, organized crime and those living on the edge. The Russian/Romanian Mafia is noticeable and shows no concern for those scrounging at the poverty level.

I’m off the point in sharing what my son really came away with; he noticed that although there is a divide between classes here in the United States, the poorest here are wealthy and have opportunity in comparison with many he saw in Romania. Our wealthy class is still compassionate, in generous and helps to create opportunities for those capable of helping themselves … and assistance to the truly needy. Here in the United States, there are many charities, churches and groups willing to help; assistance is abundant in comparison to Romania.

These last couple of weeks provided my son a good opportunity to rethink his ‘condition’ … I only hope he will remember the blessings in his life the next time he has to ‘sufferwithout movie money’ or brand name clothes. It is easy o complain about the inequality of our society here in the US, but even as the wealth gap widens … the quality of life for the majority in the US continues to advance. The quality of life for all in the US is good and continues to improve despite our self-criticism; we as a whole are good examples to each other and to the world.

Perhaps in appreciation this 4th of July … we could in a small way thank someone that is on the front line keeping this ‘way of life’ improving. These military men and women are not only protecting our United States, but are sharing our hard fought freedoms with others around the world in hopes they also can build a better life.

TAKE A SOLDIER TO THE MOVIES

An easy way to bring a little bit of home to our soldiers overseas is to “take a soldier to the movies.” This project was started by Bernie and Kathy Hintzke of West Allis, Wisconsin (near Milwaukee). The Hintzkes have a 22-year old son, Adam, who is serving in the Army and is deployed to Iraq.

The idea was to bring a Saturday night out in America to the troops. Operation: Take a Soldier to the Movies sends soldiers packages that contain:

A new or used DVD movie
Two (2) packets of microwave popcorn
Two (2) packets of presweetened powdered drink mix
Assortment of movie theater-style candy (no chocolate), and
A letter from the person or family contributing the contents
All of the items come packaged in a special patriotic popcorn box. You can contribute any of the items above or make a cash donation by sending to:

OPERATION: Take a Soldier to the Movies
c/o Hintzke & Associates, Inc.
10617 W Oklahoma Ave U1
West Allis, WI 53227-4152

Category: Travel | No Comments »
Tags: constanza, flag, rhm

Posted By RichC on June 30, 2005

National Public Radio’s Morning Edition ran an interview with Mike Pelly (Olympia Green Fuels) on biodiesel on June 29th. It was a well done short 4 minute PR interview (right click/save-as for MP3 Audio)that was balanced politically.

Mike Pelly tells Steve Inskeep about biodiesel in this short interview. Pelly is a well know biodiesel advocate that has been working with biodiesel for 10 years or so. His information can be found in many forums and several websites including Journey to Forever.

Category: Audio, Biodiesel | No Comments »
Tags: biodiesel, npr

Posted By RichC on June 29, 2005

The President of the United States addressed the nation on Tuesday night (June 28, 2005) and outlined the continuing War on Terror. (right-click and save-as this MP3 audio to listen) The polite and respectful Airbourne Army troops at Fort Bragg, NC hosted their commander in chief and listened intently to the accurate review and complementary statements President Bush communicated to both the personnel of the armed forces and the American people.

Interestingly President Bush has remain steadfast to his plan and continues to believe that those serving will look back at Afghanistan and Iraq as keys to peace and instrumental in democracy for millions. Those serving are doing exactly as asked and securing our nation. The President quickly connected those insurgents (Iraqi or foreign) to terrorist that hated Americans and democracy and likened them to those attacking New York, Washington DC and Pennsylvania on 9/11. He posed the question, “Is the sacrifice worth it?” and answered, “It is worth it and it is vital to the security of our country.” Despite the violent campaign by the terrorists that continues, he said, they (the terrorist) are no “closer to achieving their strategic objectives.” The conclusion that many have made is that we either fight them in Iraq and Afghanistan or wait for them to strike America.

Most of us need a reminder that although the terrorist that we have captured from from Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran, Egypt, Sudan, Yemen, Libya and other nations are striking in Iraq, that they have yet to successfully target civilians here in the United States again. Those charged with protecting the nation can take pride in that; be they our elected officials, military men and women taking the fight to the terrorist, the coast guard and harbor patrols protecting our borders, airports and airlines, police and undercover agents or the electronic intelligence community. Reflecting on the years since 9/11, I am impressed at how well this multi-pronged defense and offense has protected our people, yet am concerned in seeing the numbers of radicals that are recruited as terrorist in Iraq. Thankfully as our President reminded us, our enemy is no “closer to achieving their strategic objectives.”

In answering the many calls for timetables, deadlines and the removal of our troops from Iraq, the President said a timetable would be “a serious mistake” that could demoralize Iraqis and American troops and embolden the enemy. “America will not leave before the job is done.” He also said sending more troops would undermine the U.S. strategy and that “Sending more Americans would suggest that we intend to stay forever.” He will send precisely what is asked for by the general in Iraq. In one especially accurate line, President Bush stated “Our progress has been uneven – but progress is being made.” His timetable for our troops coming home was represented with a memerable statement, “We have a clear path forward,” he said. “As the Iraqis stand up, we will stand down.”

I thought the speech and where it was delivered was one of the President’s best … and the time to deliver it was overdo. I know the adminstration would have liked to have shared better news and show us an end, especially for the soldiers and their familys, but updating and reinforcing the clear resolve is important too. One of the interviews after the president’s speech that I found most interesting was that of retired General Wesley Clark. (right click and save-as Clark/Hume MP3 audio response) It would be great if all Democrats (and others) that have differences with the current administration would handle themselves as he does. There is no question he disagrees, but there is also no question that he puts Americans and America first. More should emulate Wesley Clark rather than subverting our nation’s mission.

Category: Millitary, News, Politics | 6 Comments »
Tags: bush, president

Posted By RichC on June 28, 2005

Matthew R Simmons, a Harvard educated Texas investment banker’s recent book leaves more questions than it does answers to the accuracy of Saudi oil reserves. Mr. Simmons through the 422 pages of his current book claims that the secrecy and mystery behind the regularly stated claims that the Saudis’ proven reserves are 25% of the worlds oil and that their current production of 10 million barrels of oil could be doubled. Simmons believes that Saudi Arabia is deceiving the world and themselves.

Twilight in the Desert by Matthew R. Simmons and BP Graphic

To counter the claim, Peter Odell of Rotterdam’s Erasmus University points out that “since 1971, over 1,500 billion barrels have been added to reserves. Over the same 35-year period, under 800 billion barrels were consumed. One can argue for a world which has been ‘running into oil’ rather than ‘out of it’.” (see graphic above) What Mr. Odell doesn’t point out is that the oil added to the reserves is not easy to extract, in fact some extraction is not even possible with today’s technology.

Before doubting the Saudis’ claims, Mr. Simmons had an opportunity to tour the Aramco factilities in 2003. He became suspicious of their claims of 25% of the world’s reserves and continued his research, turning to the Society of Petroleum Engineers electronic library to review papers by field geologists. After reviewing over 200 papers by Aramco personnel, Simmons concluded that 90% of the Saudis production comes from 6 giant fields. These fields were all discovered before 1967 with the 2000 square mile Ghawar field being the largest. (largest in the world)

Prospecting by Aramco geologist continues outside these know fields, but have found nothing significant. The concern by Simmons is that these 6 fields are producing at near capacity and have been for 40 years. At some point these field will begin to show their age and perhaps are already as they require extensive water injection to maintain the current flow of crude. Mr. Simmons doubts that Aramco can increase output as the Saudi’s claim. He believes they may have already peaked.

In this mystery, are the Saudi’s believing what they want to believe and deceiving the world for continued dominance? Perhaps we are in for a major shock if the deception proves to be true. If you are seeking another “Peak Oil” book, I highly recommend Twilight in the Desert.

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Posted By RichC on June 27, 2005

I read and interesting article this weekend that detailed the events and price points of oil adjusted for inflation. Without including the Subscription copywritten Data, I found it interesting to note that during the years 1979 – 1985 we actually sustained prices higher than our current $60/barrel. (peaked at $90/barrel* adjusted for inflation according to the WSJ)

Information not included in the data were that most consumers in the 70s and early 80s had already experience high inflation for several years which had greatly zapped their buying power (different from current conditions) and most had less excess income in which to devote toward energy costs that peaked a 1/3 higher than today’s. Point two is that the vehicle choices, housing, office building, lighting, appliances, etc. were less efficient as a whole in comparison to what most Americans have available today. I don’t mention this to belittle $60 oil … but to question whether we really should be complaining?

I did not realized that only 15 years ago in 1990 that the adjusted price per barrel was on par with the current price. Hopefully the attention we are seeing devoted to our current energy cost will create an attitude of conservation and promote alternatives aggressively that stick this time … but frankly looking at history, I’m not holding my breath.

A final point is that if we compare the economic boom in China (not that we can), to Japan in the 90s … a collapse in the Chinese economy like Japan’s in mid 1997 could easily ‘half’ the price of crude just as in the late 90s when we saw $15/barrel oil.

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Posted By RichC on June 23, 2005

As the trade and economic battle between China and the US escalates, the questions begin to arise at the best way to handle the situation. The recent battle over the company Unocal between Chevron and Communist China’s government controlled CNOOC has brought the situation to the forefront. (WSJ Article) The rise cost of oil (today just under $60/barrel) and the increasing demand on the world supply primarily by China new added thirst, is placing an increase concern on the economic health of the United States. Today’s offer of $67.00/ share for Unocal plus a $500 million dollar breakup fee by CNOOC will allow the government controlled Chinese company one more asset in securing addition oil reserves. Is this a security risk to the United States or an asset that will always be available for the right price?

In free markets, this would not be a concern, but in this case an open market company would go under the control of a Communist government. The purchase from China’s standpoint makes sense as the oil fields controlled by Unocal are located primarily in Asia. The securing of these assets by a government are a bit different than the independent controlled companies in a capital system, so there is a concern. My personal thought is that it is difficult for independent capital corporations to compete with governments in acquiring companies.

Today is also a day that tariffs and value of the Yuan to the dollar is being discussed before congress. Greenspan will be a guest speaker and I assume he will not support protectionist tariffs or attempting to ‘force’ change in the valuation of the Yuan to the dollar. As a free market believer, I do agree with Greenspan on this, but in the case of China (unlike Japan in the 1980s) the playing field between privately owned companies in a democracy and the government controlled companies in communist China are not equal. John Snow is also slated to speak to congress and perhaps will enlighten us as to what kinds of talks are going on behind the scenes to keep business flowing between our two countries. I sense an eventual showdown economically between China and the US … and if congress gets involved, they most likely will side on protectionist strategies. (understandable if the points below are valid)

Congress is already getting heat from industries in the US that are attempting to compete for business with Chinese companies. These struggling US companies will cite intellectual property theft, unfair employee practices and abused environmental laws in China and other Asian countries. US citizens as well are concerned with the loss of jobs due to the low labor costs available to companies in China and the increasing economic power of these government controlled companies to acquire US corporations. The problem is not going to go away and will probably continue to escalate unless changes are voluntarily made by China, US citizens question their exacerbating this problem with their buying habits or congress intercedes with pressure, threats or tariffs against Chinese produced products. It is interesting to know which companies our government would allow to going into the hands of the Chinese?

I think most Americans approve of competing where the playing field is level and are concerned only when they personally feel the pain of lost jobs or buying power. Perhaps we are nearing that point when communist governments can gain control of oil reserves (be they only 1%), exploit cheap labor, ignore environmental and copyrights/patents and acquire corporations that control assets vital to our economy and perhaps security? Stay tuned as this Unocal bid might be the “striking of the match”or the “Ripple in the pond.” Let’s just hope its not a tsunami in the making.

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