Cheap oil, negative returns and a confused Fed

Posted By on February 11, 2016

Markets took a wild ride today on very weak economies around the globe and oil dropping to nearly $26/barrel. UAE minister hinted at OPEC talking about production cuts, the markets Dow160211Aftercame back from its lows. The pain was particularly hard on banks as monetary policies in more nations move into negative returns (negative interest rates) … and Fed chair Janet Yellen said she would not take it off the table. It is obvious that few know what is happening .

MedAire Travel Risk Map for 2016

Posted By on February 11, 2016

TravelRiskMap2016
(lower resolution JPG image above – download full resolution PDF from MedAire)

MedAire launched its Travel Risk Map 2016 PDF, an interactive map that highlights medical and security risks across the globe. The online map rates regional security as ‘extreme’, ‘high’, ‘medium’, ‘low’ or ‘insignificant’, and medical risks as ‘low’, ‘medium’, ‘high’, ‘very high’ or ‘rapidly developing variable risk’.

One of the strangest presidential primary contests ever

Posted By on February 11, 2016

As a frustrated political watcher, I'm starting to think I may have hitched my wagon behind the wrong GOP horse, although it is still a bit early. I haven't jumped in with both feet or anything, but I thought I was supporting a Republican with “acceptable” values and ability to grow the party … and someone who also has the best chance of beating Hillary Clinton. Up to this point, I felt Marco Rubio held that position, but after a self-inflicted debate flop in New Hampshire … and a kamikaze like suicide attack by fellow Republican Gov. Chris Christie (he dropped out Wednesday, as did Carly Fiorina) … he unfortunately has a big hill to climb again (WSJ photo above doesn't help Rubio … time will tell if he can “joke” his way around of the robotic image?)

Currently, businessman Donald Trump has solidified a strong number one spot, but like many “watchers,” his avid support seems to be tapped out at about 1/3rd of the electorate. He generates passionate support … as well as downright hatred from others. Of course the ever-likable (joking) Ted Cruz splits the GOP about the same way. Even more concerning is that he would be very unlikely to bring across Democrats, even if they are discontented with choosing between the “forked tongue” Hillary Clinton and unabashed socialist Bernie Sanders.

One of the big concerns … or as Bill O'Reilly said “consternation” for GOP primary voters … is that loud conservatives and motivated Republican voters have either aligned themselves with Trump or Cruz … and are leaving pragmatic (but still conservative) Republicans splitting up their votes between several other candidates (link): Bush, Rubio, Kasich and Carson (see checklist in Conservative Review).

We'll see how it goes in South Carolina.

Repairing the AC on the BMW X5 35d in the middle of winter

Posted By on February 10, 2016

NewAC4BMWX5160208My timing is probably not the best considering the temperature is in the teens this week, but since the BMW X5 35d is in the shop, I’m addressing as many “squawks” as possible. One of the known issues was that the air conditioning wasn’t working (paid less for the vehicle) … so after checking the basics at home, it was time for professional diagnosis while plugged into the BMW computer and paying the diagnostic charge ($112-ouch!)  I noticed it was overcharged when I bought the car and figured someone tried adding refrigerant as a quick fix. It measured way over when I check it at home, but going further requires the refrigerant recycling equipment.  I thought perhaps the compressor high pressure switch was tripped (overly optimistic). Of course hat was not the case … but at least the AC system holds pressure! After a look at the drive belt, it was apparent to the service tech that the AC compressor bearing had seized or were at least dragging.

The fix:  BMW “dealer parts,” even if I could get the 20% discount on parts are not cheap, so I passed on the dealer replacing the compressor and went about looking for aftermarket parts since this is a higher mileage vehicle. What I did find was a second-hand (but working) 2011 BMW original AC compressor from import car friend that I could bartered with … and to top it off … I think I have coerced the dealer to put it on since it is a BMW part (they won’t do aftermarket parts). This is a plus since I failed miserably when putting a new AC system in the old Mercedes – and am still chasing leaks.

Speaking of repairs, the number one reason I took the vehicle to the dealer is that the emission particulate filter is kicking a code on regeneration. NewACforBMWX5labelThey say they have “fixed” that problem by doing a “manual burn,” but it still worries me (these are expensive gizmos yet suppose to go 300K).

The broken sunroof part arrived on Monday, but upon installation they broke the new part – I guess it is not an easy or simple install? The most expensive surprise was that the rear differential was leaking at all three seals … something about miles and age which could be true since Taylor’s BMW had those seals replaced when we bought his car. It doesn’t speak highly for BMW engineering — no problems with Japanese cars, I’m just sayin’.  In any case, the differential seals should last longer. Normally I’d probably top off the fluid and keep driving until I notice drips, but since it is a new car for us, I’ll pay the big bucks to have it repaired.

I’m also trying to finagle an update to the navigation maps while the car is in the shop, but if not, I have a lead on the codes and USB stick for $45, not that anybody really needs built in maps anymore (iPhone is probably easier).

Finally there’s the resetting of all the maintenance codes that haven’t been cleared for a while  … hopefully all we be reset and cleared.  I’ll have the dealer do the $89 brake bleed service to get the required codes reset and plan on picking up my own pads in another 5000 miles or so. Let’s hope I’m done with dealer service for a while.

A peaceful morning snow — in black and white

Posted By on February 9, 2016

SnowBackyard160209bw

A bit of overnight snow freshened the air, quieted the surroundings and made the morning commutes in southwest Ohio a little more interesting. Although I tweaked the early morning backyard photo since is was still dark (click photo for larger), I enjoyed remembering what it was like to work in tonal photographyit has been nearly 35 years since I was “souping film” in a darkroom.

soupingfilm

Learning the New American way of Life in the Obamaconomy

Posted By on February 8, 2016

It is well past time that we elect representatives with a little more commonsense than the ones who churned out “feel good” public assistance help from Washington DC and many state houses. They love handing outother people’s money.”  Perhaps they think of themselves as do-gooders and either, don’t see or don’t care, that  the complexity of laws and rules they create …  “that is our bureaucracy” … has holes big enough to sink even the most robust economy (and we definitely don’t have that at the moment).

I saw the newspaper op-ed below being past around and when I shared it with my wife, who works in a less than upscale retail pharmacy, she said … “I see it everyday … including a couple emplyees that unmarried with kids, and of course on government assistance and with live-in boyfriends.” 

NewAmericanWayOfLife2016

What changed in America? Where are the people of integrigy? People like Brenda’s late widowed grandmother who refused to take a handout and instead found a way to scratch out a decent life for herself and infant son – Brenda’s dad. That pre-Greatest Generation American was to me the truly “Greatest Generation.” It’s people like “Granny Howard” that were the embodied spirit of those who founded this country; living by biblical principles, neighbor helping neighbor, self-sufficiency, commonsense spending and having pride in their own ability to take care of themselves and their families. Where are these people today? If they exist – I’m sure they are penalized by our system.

Most of those “up by their bootstraps” types from previous generations have been surplaced by a nation of entitled “takers” (enabled by government). They spend more time focused on self gratification (entertainment, gadgets, clothing, alcohol and drugs) and find ways to take advantage of the generosity (and stupidity) of this giving nation (sorry about the broad brush … but the number of “takers” is overwhelming).  We’re closing in on a point of no return as 71 cents of every dollar our government take in now funds entitlements and the interest on our nearly $19T debt. To make things worse, I’m not sure the next generation is ready make a change … as millinnials seem to be supporting an out and out declared Socialist for president (one who sees nothing economically wrong with a top tax rate of over 90% – talk about disappearing jobs!). And millinnials aren’t alone, as the socialist Bernie Sanders (VT) is competing with impressive success against the leading Democrat, Hillary Clinton. JFK would be rolling over in his grave if he saw what was happening to his Democratic Party. I can only assume is that either the opposing choice is SO BAD (perhaps true) or the generation attracted to Bernie Sanders has been totally brainwashed regarding Socialism by liberal educators (I wonder if Friedrich Hayek’s The Road to Serfdom is required reading?)

"The trouble with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money" — Margaret Thatcher

The Denver defense dominates Carolina in Superbowl 50

Posted By on February 7, 2016

Newton - Manning post game
The Denver Broncos defeated the “team to beat, the Carolina Panthers,” this entire season in Superbowl 50. The game was not pretty as it was dominated by defense … particularly outstanding in SB50 was MVP Von Miller. He and his Bronco teammates shut down the self-proclaimed superman Cam Newton and the the high powered Panther offense. The final score, 24 – 10, was not indicative of the tension most fans felt while watching two of the most capable and explosive quarterbacks in the NFL. “The great,” but aging, Peyton Manning was also well dampered by outstanding Carolina defense. I’d love to say “what a great game to watch,” … but it really wasn’t.

Congratulation to Denver and here’s hoping  Manning has the sense to retire his cleats while he is on the top (something tells me he’ll have a few job offers … and probably a standing offer from Budweiser after his post-game comments!).

Love this Slick TRIP Kickstarter backpack project

Posted By on February 7, 2016

I’d be jumping onboard for this Slick Kickstarter Backpack project if the $249 for the TRIP version didn’t frighten me away. Sure looks like the perfect traveling companion for my many trips — both for weekly work trips and those trips to the boat. It looks like they intend to keep the quality high … but who really know until you see it. Thanks again … if I had $250 looking to back “another” project, this would be it!

A long BMW X3 test drive — well, a loaner car

Posted By on February 7, 2016

While our BMW X5 35d is in the shop and waiting for a few parts, I was given a pretty nice loaner car or the weekend – X3 XDrive 28i.

After buzzing around town for a coupled day, I must say that it is nearly a 10 in my book. I’m impressed with the styling, the large comfortable interior and impressive BMW driving characteristcs.

The 2.8L gas engine has plenty of pep since it is mated to a snappy transmission that can be switched frrom comfort to sport mode. The third setting of eco is most impressive. Love the engine shut off and recharge on braking. Love to be able to really run a full tank of gas on it just to see what would be possible. Maybe they’ll trade my 2010 X5 for this 2016 X3???

Keeping the old diesel running in the wintertime

Posted By on February 6, 2016

DESCRIPTION

It has been surprisingly mild in Cincinnati for February that I decided to get the old girl out of the garage.  It wasn’t particularly warm last night when I got home, but the drier air and snow-free roads were excuse enough to drive the old Mercedes Benz 300D Turbodiesel in the winter  … besides the other car was finally getting a few nagging repairs taken care of at the BMW dealership (ouch!).  The simplicity of the old cars is something I appreciate more and more each year.

Desultory - des-uhl-tawr-ee, -tohr-ee

  1. lacking in consistency, constancy, or visible order, disconnected; fitful: desultory conversation.
  2. digressing from or unconnected with the main subject; random: a desultory remark.
My Desultory Blog