Time to wake up with the world’s largest rope swing
Posted By RichC on February 17, 2012
Pinterest – is it worth using another social kind of site?
Posted By RichC on February 16, 2012
How much is too much social networking … and how will they all make money?
Traffic to the website—which lets users create online scrapbooks to share images of projects or coveted products—has grown tenfold over the past six months. In January, the number of visitors on Pinterest.com was almost a third of that on Twitter.com.
via online.wsj.com
Nickel and dime style increases continue at Sprint
Posted By RichC on February 16, 2012
Although I’ve stayed with Sprint for mobile service for over a decade, I’m constantly irritated with their tweaking. 
Just when I was starting to calm down from the last couple go-arounds over a discount structure and then AirRave billing, the monthly invoice increased again. Not by much mind you, but enough to increase my bill each month (quite a bit if you multiple it by 12 months).
Once again I jumped on the phone and worked my way through their billing phone tree in order to talk with a representative who could explain — Paraphrased: “Sprint has changed the way they apply the corporate discounts on the shared minutes service plan. We will only be applying the discount to "one” phone and the second share phone line (which was free) will be billed at the regular additional phone rate.”
Has natural gas hit a bottom. If so, how to invest?
Posted By RichC on February 15, 2012
Besides trading in an out of the depressed Natural Gas market in the past month, I’ve been pondering how to “eventually” capitalize on what I see as a bottom in the commodity price for NG and a possible upside down the road. How far down the road, who knows?
I’ve been doing some reading regarding different ways to profit on future demand. First, the new “fracking” drilling method now makes it possible to extract more gas from the same wells. This increases the amount of natural gas and decreasing the cost … so that will need to be calculated into the producer picture. There are companies strategically positioned to capitalized in hydraulic fracking – I’ve added a small position in Heckmann Corp (HEK).
Another piece of advice that I’ve picked up is to stick with companies that make money from moving natural gas … pipelines. One of the pluses to investing in companies like Spectra Energy, El Paso Pipeline Partners and Williams Partners LP; Williams owns nearly 14,000 miles of pipelines and charge a fee for every cubic foot of natural gas they move through their pipes. Supplies don’t matter as these companies make money whether NG is cheap or expensive … and at a time when the U.S. is moving towards clean natural gas as an alternative to coal for electric power plants and as diesel replacement in trucking, they should do do well. Another option rather than individual companies is to invest in an exchange traded note like JPMorgan Alerian MLP Index (AMJ). AMJ yields 4.83% but charges 85 cents for every $100 invested … so beware of the costs associated with buying ETNs.
I’m not comfortable investing in the drillers and those companies that are drilling new wells yet, as these companies are dealing with such low NG prices that there is little incentive to keep their rigs drilling. They are also battling the environmentalist who have targeted the process of injecting water and chemicals in the underground cracks and have suggested that this method is contaminating drinking water and creating earthquakes.
Another option is to look for companies that benefit from the lower natural gas prices. These are companies that use NG in their products such as chemical, plastic and fertilizer companies. A couple of the big boys are Dow Chemical (DOW) and DuPont (DD) (which I mentioned in December 2011).
Dow Chemical Co, for instance, depends on natural gas to manufacture plastics used in everything from toys to artificial turf to diapers. The company is expanding its capacity in the United States to produce ethylene, a key plastics component that is derived from natural gas.
Dow Chemical may be something of a momentum play. It is up 14.6 percent so far in January, and trades at a P/E of 13.5. It yields 3 percent.
Companies like DuPont, meanwhile, will likely see costs for producing fertilizer, plastics and other products decrease, said Doyle from Morris Capital Advisers. Natural gas is a component of ammonia, which is used in fertilizer production.
That will likely help them both at home and overseas. Demand for fertilizer alone, part of the $700 billion chemical industry, is expected to grow by 3 percent worldwide in 2012, according to the International Fertilizer Industry. The chemical industry is one of the top U.S. exporters, according to Zacks Investment Research.
DuPont is up 14 percent this month. It trades at a P/E of 13.4 and yields 3.3 percent.
Natural Gas ETFs:
Natural gas price tracking exchange traded funds is another way to make money if there is a rise in the price for natural gas. The downside is that if gas continues to head south (possible but the move has been significant already) or that it will trade in the current range for years to come. I’m of the school that natural gas is near a low and although I’ve never been accurate at “picking a bottom,” I do think that the downside risk is lower than the upside.
- United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) (note this warning*)
- Dow Jones-AIG Natural Gas Total Return ETN (GAZ)
- Teucrium Natural Gas Fund (NAGS)
- United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund (UNL)
- Claymore Natural Gas Commodity ETF (GAS-TSX)
- Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Natural Gas Bear Plus ETF (HND-TSX)
- Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Natural Gas Bull Plus ETF (HNU-TSX)
- Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Natural Gas Inverse ETF (HIN-TSX)
- NYMEX Long Crude Oil/Short Natural Gas Spread ETF (HON-TSX)
- NYMEX Long Natural Gas/Short Crude Oil Spread ETF (HNO-TSX)
- Winter-Term NYMEX Natural Gas ETF (HUN-TSX)
- ETFS Forward Natural Gas ETF (NGAF-LSE)
- ETFS Leveraged Natural Gas ETF (LNGA-LSE)
- ETFS Natural Gas ETF (NGAS-LSE)
- ETFS Natural Gas Sterling ETF (NGSP-LSE)
- ETFS Short Natural Gas ETF (SNGA-LSE)
* LINK to article warning about UNG
UNG is forced to continuously sell the front month and buy the forward month. This is a problem because of the contango in the natural gas market. Below are the prices for Henry Hub Natural Gas futures over the next year.
- Jan 2012- $ 3.12
- Feb 2012- $ 3.17
- Mar 2012- $ 3.20
- Aprl 2012- $ 3.26
- May 2012- $ 3.31
- Jun 2012- $ 3.35
- Jul 2012- $ 3.41
- Aug 2012- $ 3.44
- Sep 2012- $ 3.45
- Oct 2012- $ 3.47
- Nov 2012- $ 3.88
- Dec 2012- $ 4.03
As you can see, prices for natural gas are higher in each month that is "further out" on the futures curve. This means that UNG loses the difference between each month. So, if natural gas prices remain flat and end December 2012 at 4.03 UNG will lose the enormous 89cent spread between Jan and Dec natural gas.
The natural gas stocks are a much better way to play natural gas itself than UNG. Companies that hold natural gas underground will receive higher prices going forward. These stocks include Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Anadarco (APC), Sandridge (SD), and other smaller natural gas companies. Major integrated oil companies such as Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Conoco Phillips (COP) also have major natural gas holdings. These should benefit from any upside in natural gas. The (FCG) is another way to play it, this ETF owns a group of natural gas stocks. Investors looking for more risk could consider Cheniere (LNG), Cheniere is hoping to export natural gas from America to foreign nations where gas prices are much higher.
Conclusion: Investors who believe in natural gas should be buying the natural gas companies, not UNG.
Happy Valentine’s Day
Posted By RichC on February 14, 2012
Once again we are faced with the dreaded Saint Valentine’s Day … well “dreaded” for those of us men who fall short in the thoughtfulness category, 
or end up buying the cheesy and over-marketed box of chocolates, flowers or — gulp — jewelry. Thankfully I have a wife who isn’t all that difficult to please and really never “acts” like she expects anything (I like that). So this year it was a silly card with a couple cute photos with notes and a box top for one of her favorites snacks … Brown Sugar Cinnamon Pop Tarts. She was happy and appreciated the card and thought … and I was happy to have survived another Valentine’s Day.
Here’s a blog post from a female perspective that I thought it was fitting …
Valentine’s Day is barely on my radar these days. I hate to think my husband feels obligated to buy me chocolate (I love it, but don’t need it – and in fact, should stay away from it); send me flowers (I have a lovely garden that he provided); take me to dinner (he’s a fantastic cook); or give me diamonds (I’d rather go away for the weekend with him).
He shows me his love in myriad ways that are more expressive than being suckered into meaningless gifts.
Want to know the nicest thing he ever got me?
A 99-cent shaker of cinnamon and sugar because he noticed I ate cinnamon toast on cold mornings, and I was always making a mess trying to get the sugar/cinnamon ratio right. I know. This man has bought me houses, new cars, dream vacations, and diamonds, and the gift I loved most of all was a little bit of spice.
Could a magnetic highway charge a car more than it uses?
Posted By RichC on February 14, 2012
For years automotive postulaters have envisioned a car being charged by embedded coils in the highway, but a comment in an article attributed to one researcher at Stanford sounds a little far fetched … maybe even stretching the laws of physics?
Stanford researchers say they can develop what’s essentially an electric highway that one of the researchers said may give an EV a higher charge after driving than before the trip started.
I’m a little skeptical unless the car is rolling downhill, has a very efficient charging systems with solar panels on the roof and some kind of induction charging device in the roadbed besides the passive magnetic coils.
That said, it will be interesting to see where EV is heading over the next few decades … I have no doubt that we’ll all being driving some form of an electric vehicle … maybe even a diesel-hybrid in a year or two (what’s taking so long?)
Just the Facts:
- Volvo on Tuesday said its 2013 V60 plug-in diesel hybrid will be priced at $75,218 — about $27,000 more expensive than a conventional V60 wagon — when it goes on sale in Europe in early 2012.
- The U.S. is not included in the initial market launch of the V60 hybrid.
- Volvo said it will build 1,000 units for model year 2013, with production increasing to 4,000-6,000 cars in model year 2014.
GOTHENBURG, Sweden — Volvo on Tuesday said its 2013 V60 plug-in diesel hybrid will be priced at $75,218 — about $27,000 more expensive than a conventional V60 wagon — when it goes on sale in Europe in early 2012.
Volvo has said that estimated fuel costs will be one-third compared with a conventional combustion engine. The diesel-hybrid wagon was unveiled at the 2011 Geneva Auto Show. Volvo says the fuel economy is the equivalent of 124 mpg, with CO2 emissions of just 49 g/km.
Getting a mention on CNBC can sometimes move up a stock
Posted By RichC on February 13, 2012
Every once in a while those interviewed on widely watched financial television channels have an opportunity to mention individual stocks … not a big deal when the companies are larger. Unfortunately mentioning a couple lessor known companies can move the prices.
Today CNBC’s Bill Griffeth on his Closing Bell segment interviewed an analyst from Oppenheimer who suggested that shippers might be undervalued. Carter Worth compared the trend to the Dow and suggested trading a couple of the laggards. Bill pressed him for a couple of names and Mr. Worth complied (can you tell by the charts when he mentioned these two stocks?)
… one way to then, you know, sort of get involved here is to try to play transports by those that have lagged by shippers. Are there shippers that you like or should you buy the group? There are groups that I like but the Baltic Index is at an all time low. So the cost of leasing a boat is going down to record lows the stocks themselves are actually starting to come up off the bottom and there are two that looked good among others, but DryShips (DRYS) is one, and if you look at the chart, it shows that a well established down trend, 7-2, and then we are breaking above the downturn, an important development, stock leading the the way, while shipping rates stay down.
Another one, Genco (GNK), 25-5 and here too, you see the down trend and moving above the down trend, there’s wisdom in price. the prices of these shippers and many others are starting to move up while the shipping rates are at lows. what you are acknowledging is that there’s strength in the key sector, you are trying to find the bargains. again, everything else is robust …
Having a last minute Magical moment before heading home
Posted By RichC on February 12, 2012
Although we had a relaxing week “on the boat” … we opted to spend our last day in Orlando and visiting the Epcot center and dinner at the California Grill atop Walt Disney World’s Contemporary Hotel (thanks Gary!)
Enjoying the day sailing and looking for sun on the beach
Posted By RichC on February 9, 2012
Just archiving a few photos from our wind blown day on the beach Wednesday and rough day sailing on Thursday – winds were a bit strong from the NE and 4-6 foot waves not all that much fun. Cloudy mornings – sunny early afternoon turning back into overcast and clouds later. We had a good time even with the green water on the decks a few times.
The 2013 VW Beetle TDI debutes in Chicago
Posted By RichC on February 9, 2012
The expected Volkswagen Beetle TDI made its appearance at the Chicago Auto Show Wednesday 
all squished down and sporty looking. It is to be offered as a 2013 model and will have the 2.0 liter diesel. The new model will be offered with the manual six-speed transmission or the VW six-speed DSG automatic and will deliver 236 pound–feet of torque with its 140 HP TDI engine.
Prices haven’t been announced for the Beetle TDI but Volkswagen expect fuel efficiency numbers to be 29 mpg city and 39 mpg highway. The TDI will have 17-inch alloy wheels, additional exterior chrome along with special badging and instrument pod with a turbo boost gauge, oil temperature gauge and a stopwatch.
Desultory - des-uhl-tawr-ee, -tohr-ee
- lacking in consistency, constancy, or visible order, disconnected; fitful: desultory conversation.
- digressing from or unconnected with the main subject; random: a desultory remark.