Who knows when we are closing in on a stock market top?

Posted By on June 9, 2021

LittleBookValueInvestingWhen it comes to investing, I’m primarily a “value investor” who relies on fundamentals, but as for “trading,” which I have tinkered with for 30 years now, I’m an advocate self imposed rules and focusing on channel trading. Of course there are zillions of gurus boasting how they have perfected buy and sell signals, I continue to remain skeptical that any “trading system” is foolproof.

In other words, who really knows when it is time to buy and time to sell … or what kind of outside event will trigger the next crisis … or bailout will degrade our dollars buying power? About all we can do is to gain an edge on things and looks at statistical odds and use a little common sense in determining that markets seem a bit out of whack. You would not be alone in wondering when the pendulum will  swing in the other direction once government support and the Fed’s easy money policies disappear. Only a true MMT-er believes government can debt fund forever without consequence.

I saw this S&P 500 vs Morgan Stanley’s Market Timing Indicator interesting … and like every indicator these days, I get nervous about holding even dividend paying values stocks as we continue to see the indexes climb. 



Desultory - des-uhl-tawr-ee, -tohr-ee

  1. lacking in consistency, constancy, or visible order, disconnected; fitful: desultory conversation.
  2. digressing from or unconnected with the main subject; random: a desultory remark.
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