My Desultory Blog

Posted By RichC on May 23, 2005

Statistically, we all expect the price of diesel fuel to drop and the price of gasoline to rise in the summer. It is usually stated that the summer driving season puts a demand on gas, whereas the winter heating season puts the demand on heating oil. This is probably to simplistic of an answer, but this seasonal trait still always seems to exist.

As we approach the summer 2006 Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) Mandate, this seasonal trend is going to be interesting, particularly in how it will effect our overall economy. The summer/fall 2005 seasonal trends will probably reflect the normal swings … but I believe that the spring of 2006 will bring a shock to diesel fuel buyers, as well as all products being shipped using diesel transit in 2006. Fuel driven inflation could be about a year away.

I believe the 2006 change in seasonal trends will be due to the complexity of the ULSD conversion. Last week, in talking with a mid level fuel buyer and then a separate distribution company associated with Marathon diesel fuels from an agricultural supply perspective, I’m becoming more and more convince of a potential problem.

First, Marathon intends to make the switch to ULSD in the first quarter of 2006 when there will still be a supply of dirty D2 in the market. Why is this a problem? Well, projections from the ‘think tanks’ tell us to expect a 6 to 15 cent per gallon increase, BUT talk on the street has concerns that the demand for ULSD will be difficult to meet. The mid-level fuel buyer that I mentioned (he supplies to the Midwest and East Coast through a variety of shipping methods include the massive pipeline known as “the Centennial Pipeline.” are already locking up supplies will California buyers ahead of the game in securing contracts. To add to the mystery in how we will make this change, once pipelines are purged (a massive ‘do it once’ undertaking) and storage tanks are cleaned, the companies can’t go back. This puts a real bind on tanker trucks and depots that must spotlessly clean their tanks in order to prevent contamination of the new ULSD spec fuels. Spotless might be a strong word but from what I’ve been told, just a small amount of today’s D2 will push ULSD out of spec.

The concern is three fold: 1) Having enough supply of the ULSD available to meet the demand, 2) Purging and cleaning pipes, tanks, trucks, etc so as not to contaminate the higher priced ULSD, 3) Once switched having to compete with existing D2 that will be priced lower than ULSD. Concerns at the retail outlet on up is about maintaining cash flow as they make the rotation. Very few facilities have the infrastructure to carry both products as the same time.

The concerns are if a company converts early, they will lose revenue to those still selling dirty D2 and that the price due to shortages of ULSD will initially be far higher than the projected 5 to 15 cents per gallon. Stay tuned and plan ahead for a change in seasonal patterns and potentially fuel cost related inflation pressures next year.

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Posted By RichC on May 20, 2005

I’ve been thinking about getting back to work on my Sonex project and have been ‘re-intrigued’ with the thought of diesel power. I came across a company, Advanced Propulsion Technologies, that is building extremely lightweight, high powered diesels, especially the 325HP engine. This one clutched to a second is being proposed and tested on light unmanned military helicopters. The more I look at it, the more I keep thinking it would make an interesting airplane engine? I wonder if I could heat the fuel enough to run biodiesel? Its already runs on JP8 so fueling at the airport is not a problem.

My Sonex project (N43SX – reserved) is still sitting on the bench (see webcam shot below), well one wing is on the bench. I’ve been contemplating riveting on the skins, but once riveted will be there to stay. (hence the delay) I’ve plumbed a plastic conduit for wing tip lights or strobes, but I haven’t really been motivated this past winter to do much more than look at it.

Speaking of looking at it, I’ve also been working on my layout for a ‘mini’ glass cockpit and believe that the Stratomaster Ultra is a good choice. I’m not entirely sure that I’m up for an all in one instrument but considering I’m planning on day VFR in this plane it might be the perfect tool. That in combination with a GPS system would offer an emergency instument backup and the navigation simplicity of a GPS.

I haven’t really looked at all the offerings so far … but the AVMap EKP IV is what I would like. The compact color mapping GPS unit features a compact unit profile with a large and brilliant color, sunlight-viewable LCD display.

Enough dreaming for now … I was hoping this would motivate me to get working on the plane. 🙂

Category: Aviation | 2 Comments »
Tags: airplane, aviation, daydreaming, engine, garage, homebuilding, sonex

Posted By RichC on May 19, 2005

The answer for most elected to serve us is that “you don’t want to know.”

Polls are a way of life in the political beltway of Washington DC and our Amreican media. Its also one way in which we get feedback on how our elected officials are performing. I’m not so sure the results of latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey (click for PDF) are all that encouraging? Perhaps those that are running for re-election better have alternate plans?

As I was reading through the results, the common thread I was noticing was that the public’s patience with our elected representatives is growing thin on a variety of issues. Not since the Democratic congress was tossed out in 1994 have Americans been so unhappy with Congress. Interestingly, President Bush has continued a steady 47% approval, and although not stellar, looks good in comparison to the 33% approval and 51% disapproval of congress. That polling is almost at the level of the 1994 revolt: 32% approval to 56% disapproval.

A particular issue that I noticed was the change in how Americans ‘expected’ congress and the President to work together: Do you think that Congress and the President are working together to end the gridlock in Washington, or do you think that things will stay pretty much as they are now because Congress and the President always have differences?

With the 2006 election not all that far away, the Republican controlled congress better get a focus on something? It seems they will be working to unite around the economy as when life at home changes for the better, there is usually a positive response at the polls for those desiring to take credit. About the only thing going for the seated Republicans is that the Democratic Party’s image hasn’t improved either.

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Posted By RichC on May 17, 2005

The new Popemobile??? I hope this is not what VW is counting on.

Is there any question as to how Volkswagen has been managed in recent years? Their strategy to up scale their image and move from the “people’s car” mentality has surely made even the most loyal shareholders doubt. One writer sums up that the “miscalculations started when VW sunk billions of euros and much management time during 1998-2003.” It was during those years that VW moved into the luxury arena and bought Bentley, Bugatti and Lamborghini. Then they went on to build the $60,000 plus Phaeton and unveiled it as their flagship model. It was a costly move into the luxury market and was capped off with the upscale Touareg SUV. The Phaeton, from everything I have read although being a premium automobile, has bombed as a business move. It would have been far better introduced under the Audi luxury marque.

All in all the companies overall performance has not been stellar. Not surprisingly, the company share prices has reflected it in Frankfurt where ordinary shares of VW stock have dropped from a high of €62 in 2002 to about €34 now. This is just where they stood in 1996, when annual sales were a bit more than half today’s.

Adding insult to injury, sales have been hurt by growing competition from Japanese and Korean brands in the U.S. and Europe, and VW has also continued its poor reputation for quality. For more than a decade, Volkswagen has consistently finished near the bottom of J.D. Power’s initial-quality rankings — this year it was 36th among 37 brands sold in the U.S. Only the Hummer has a worse initial-quality rating.

Most analyst believe much as to do with ignoring their bread and butter models like the Golf, Jetta and Passat. Not only have sales fallen in the US and Europe, but VW continued to lose large chunks of China’s auto sales where they once dominated. Volkswagen once held 50% market share in China, which has unfortunately eroded to less than 20%. In the US, as friend that sells VWs puts it, sales have tumbled in part to being treated like the ‘redheaded stepchild.’ The US does not necessarily get the inventory and models needed to compete with offerings from Japan and Korea. Obviously the weak dollar has not helped sales in the U.S. and VWoA continues to show red ink.

Enough gloom … what is VW doing about this? Well believe it or not, there are signs of serious self- improvement in Wolfsburg. Over the past 12 months, the German state of Lower Saxony, which owns 18.2% of VW, the management and even the unions to some extent, realize the company must slash its costs. They are making some big changes and should eventually trim billions of euros in annual outlays and boost operating margins back toward the historic 4% to 5% rate. They have implemented the ‘ForMotion’ cost-reduction program … named after their all-wheel-drive system. It is beginning to yield results according to industry analysts.

To ease its dollar woes, Volkswagen has shifted Jetta production to Mexico, all Jettas/Boras will now come from one plant. For those of us wondering where our Jetta was born … now we can say “solamente en México.” Interestingly VW worldwide now has the most new offerings among volume car-producers, with some 20 models or variants being introduced this year …IMHO this should help reignite earnings growth. China, an extremely important market, is showing signs of stabilization after the reported first quarter.

On the quality front, VW is mounting a massive effort for improvement; Wolfgang Bernhard, the former DaimlerChrysler executive who recently became the VW brand’s head, is making this a priority. I have talked with local dealerships and they are already noticing a big difference with the quality of the new A5 Jetta. They have been informed that instead of making repairs on vehicles when they are delivered those models not up to quality standard will not be shipped out to dealers for repair as in the past.

All in all, most believe the damage has been done and that there is some upside potential. From the most rosy picture of a 20% rise in stock price to a ‘cooler’ look from an analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston analyst. “The market views VW as the most wasteful company in the sector, yet it then doesn’t grant that consequently savings are obviously possible.” Hmm?

Stay tuned.

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Posted By RichC on May 16, 2005

Today was an headline grabbing day for biodiesel advocates as President Bush made a visit to a Virgina Biodiesel Refinery. The public visit was in part a promotion of his stalled energy bill and an incentive to continue our national move toward less dependance on foriegn petroleum. President Bush exclaims, “Our dependence on foreign oil is like a foreign tax on the American dream, and that tax is growing every year.”

His visit was highlighted by a demonstration of how biodiesel is made – and how cleanly it burns in an engine. Bush was given a white handkerchief that had been held on an exhaust pipe of a revved-up 18-wheeler, and deemed it clean enough to hold up to his nose.

“Biodiesel is one of our nation’s most promising alternative fuel sources and by developing biodiesel you’re making this country less dependent on foreign sources of oil,” he said.

For American farmers and those of us promoting biodiesel in our vehicles, it is good to see the President in tune with us. I for one appreciate the exposure of having the Commander in Chief visit a biodiesel facility and point out to the American people what we already know. Clean, renewable, domestic biodiesel is an efficient fuel available to our nation today. Let’s keep the momentum rolling.

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Posted By RichC on May 16, 2005

A Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS) technology demonstration is scheduled for June 5 – 7, 2005 and will showcase some of the operating capabilities developed to make small aircraft and airports more accessible to more people. This is the information technology that is needed to open the door to personal air transportation along with the hardware like I mentioned in my previous post.

In email correspondence with Attila Melkuti he has indicated hopes of a first flight for his AMV-211 aircraft. “At this point I am conducting some initial taxi testing since I finished the landing gear configuration modification. My goal is to fly it before I take it to Chicago.”

I’m am excited in supporting his project and look forward to visiting with him in Chicago.

It is indeed exciting to be part of the aviation frontier (and preservation of its past) as we move forward these next couple of decades. With NASA SATS 2005 project in remapping the air traffic system to included personal aircraft … the “sky (pun intended) is indeed the limit.”

A great 12+ 60 minutes clip was sent to me by a friend, Mark Keener, and I’ve decided to include it for those wanting to see some of the possible future personal aircraft projects. (Recorded on April 17, 2005)

Right click and save will download this DIVX format (free codec) .AVI file: Future of Flight.avi (warning – 33megs)

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Posted By RichC on May 15, 2005

Category: Computer, History, News, Technology, Video | 1 Comment »
Tags: compuserve, internet, newspapers, video

Posted By RichC on May 13, 2005

I enjoy reading and posting in several forums that usually pertain to an area of mutual interest. Over time it is easy to make friends (and occasional nemeses … hmm is that a word?) that move off topic for discussion of divisive issues such as religion and politics. One such issue is on how we go about fighting ‘terrorism.’

A forum conversation in regard to military recruitment has prompted new ideas in regard to recruiting, just as an exposé from a high school journalist, David McSwaine (CBS new article)made the news. The article that spurred the forum discussion was published in USAToday brought forward a new ‘lite’ enlistment that has an initial ‘up’ of 15 months.

After quoting the comments of a senior member of the forum, I’ll included my thoughts not so much on the “lite” enlistment recruiting technique, but on his opinion that this is a “Moron Draft.” (I realize that often frustration is what stimulates strong statements … but it does open the door to an exchange of thoughts)

His comments about the article:
Really scraping the bottom of the barrel for the “volunteer” army. what kind of moron signs on for “1.25 years” when you still get stuck with an eight year commitment in the guard/reserve (the guard/reserve making up half the troopers in iraq and way more than half of the dead/mulitlated bodies, btw).

“Son, with your sign-up bonus – there will be a shiny new mustang waiting for you in 1.25 years….”. “Does that come with handicaped driver modifications?” See forum discussion for addtional comments.

Not to disagree totally with your analysis (because I’m a dad of two at or nearing the age), but there is also a component of “despiration +stupidity +adventure +invunerablity +excitement +youthful exhuberance +less we forget, patriotism/service to country” that factor into the decision. The same risk/excitement/reward thinking that goes into motorcycle riding, rock climbing, hang gliding, etc often goes into those youthful minds joining the US military. By thinking less of those volunteering (ie. “Moron”) to serve is also a discredit to their patriotism.

Unfortunately, for many signing on, there will be a sense of regret and disillusionment. I dislike the ‘overselling’ style recruitment and disception that seems to ‘still’ exist behind the doors in some recruiting offices. I do believe that we have cleaned up much of the flat out ‘lie recruiting’ of the past, but also realize that selling an all expense paid trip to Iraq will probably not include marketing the down side with as much ‘spit and polish’ as the upside.

I’m not fond of your title “Moron Draft” … that is not being honorable to those volunteers choosing to risk their lives in service to our country. Military service is a high risk job. There have been generations of young soldiers who have valiantly come forward when our nation has asked for their service with far less honesty during recruitment. Most men and women walking into a recruiting office today know precisely what they are doing and I’m thankful for their service.

Let me share a story from a friend of mine; a two tour Vietnam Marine:
Tim was a high school graduate enrolled in college during the early 60s. (pre-heavy protest) He choose to enlist in the Marine corp (ie. serve with the best attitude) before being drafted as graduation from college loomed. He spent his first tour leading (literally) young men daily into the jungles and when he became a ‘short timer’ (nearing end of service) was offered increasingly attractive options to re-up. The final straw was as the 30 day mark came and he was ‘promised’ rear duty and an immediate R & R trip to Hawaii and no more trips into the jungle (v. 30 more days of it). Understand the ‘short-timer’ mindset as you watch soldiers dying everyday knowing you only need to make it 30 days and then having the ‘carrot’ of 30 days R&R in Hawaii dangled in front of your nose. Many young marines chose the trip and a second tour as did Tim.

Although stories in the US armed forces recruiting offices still exist, I’ve not heard them continue with this kind of tactic as a regular practice. For Tim … the duty was as promised, rear duty, but no where close to sane. With it came different dangers much like the ones that face our ‘peace’ keeping soldiers today … urban patrols.

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Posted By RichC on May 10, 2005

Next month I’ll have a chance to personally check out the AMV Aircraft. (well not ‘be’ checked out. 🙂 ) Actually it has been seen as the personal aircraft of the future by some and just another prototype design by others. No matter … I like it.

What is unique is that this small two place personal VTOL aircraft offer the vertical takeoff and landing with the cruising speed of a fixed wing airplane. Designers have been working on this kind of plane for decades; we have yet to see many in current use.

The current AMV-211 Experimental Aircraft uses a Mazda turbocharged rotary engine to power its 5 bladed graphite/kevlar 94″ internal prop that powers the 1240 pounds empty weight plane. It has a cruise speed of 250 mph and a range of 1000 miles on 50 gallons of fuel. The 3000 ft/min designed climb rate could be exceptional for short fields or for the potential 40 foot by 40 foot runway. 🙂 Its two place design is only about 20 feet long by 20 feet wide. Will stabilty be a problem?

What makes this particular design unique is that it uses ducting rather than a ’tilting’ mechanism to change the airflow. By eliminating one of the main elements that have plagued previous VTOL aircraft, the AMV-211 can go from providing lift to providing forward thrust without swiveling the engine.

The VTOL aircraft designer, Attila Melkuti, has solved the problem by having the whole aircraft transisition or turn instead. He does this by using a propulsion system called a ducted fan. This is a propeller with five blades that is encircled by a band made of a light, composite material. That makes the aircraft both safer (because there are no stray propeller blades around) and quieter (because the sound is deadened by the encircling band).

What is novel about Mr Melkuti’s design, is that the aircraft’s wings are placed at an angle to the fan. The wings and the fuselage itself also provides aerodynamic lift offering improved ‘airplane’ flight characteristics including power off emergency landings. The craft takes off with the fan perfectly horizontal, blowing straight down. As the craft then rotates, the wings start providing lift, and the fan starts blowing towards the back. To land, you simply reverse the process.

This aircraft is still in the preliminary stages of testing although has received the FAA airworthiness certificate. Most critics question the stability of the the VTOL design and although it has not been fully tested after some engine cooling redesign, Mr. Melkuti believes that stabilty will be easily controlled through the ducting. We shall see.

Katelyn, “a future Astronaut” 😉 and I will be heading to Chicago in June to personally talk to the designer and learn about the company and design. (who knows where my daughter will “land” someday?) I’ll keep you posted and hopefully bring back some photos. Stay tuned.

Category: Aviation, Mazda | 17 Comments »
Tags: aircraft, airplane, amv-211, experimental, flying, VTOL

Posted By RichC on May 9, 2005

Most of us in the US ‘love’ cheap energy … unfortunately what we like isn’t always good for us.

I’ve enjoyed regular forum debates with Mike Briggs, from UNH, on many issues. A recent issue has me rethinking my positions on a ‘new tax.’ Yes … a TAX … shame on me. Mike presented his idea in a rational way that includes a reform that collect a ‘sin’ style tax on petroleum with a matching reduction on the income tax side.

Here’s why this proposal makes sense:

On the plus side … cheap energy while it is available (by boosting supply and protecting these asset with taxpayer funds – exploration, pumping, refining, importing, shipping and piping) creates a better environment for our economy to excel. We drive bigger and more powerful vehicles and ship products by the fasted means. A country the size of our ‘loves’ it. We smile and life seems good.

On the negative … cheap energy places us at the whims of OPEC and other oil producers … including our own ‘highly’ profitable companies. It deters development of alternatives and places us in more vulnerable situation when supplies are also wanted by other developing nations. (i.e.. China and India of late)

The cycle we are being caught in has happened to us twice that I can remember … once in the 70s and now. The rapid price swings have favored foreign manufactures who were already producing efficient vehicles in comparison to our domestic companies. We were caught flat footed back then … and it is happening again. I recall a quick move toward economical cars (Japanese) and alternative forms of energy were quickly considered for heat and electricity. Then as we started to get up to speed …. more oil began to feed the system and prices in comparison to inflation stagnated in oil … and actually pulled back. This through cold water on alternatives and efficiency gave way to more power and bigger cars. The lower oil prices shut down exploration, additional capital intensive refineries and enticed consumer to drive more, order next day shipping and give up on renewable energy options seeing them as offering a poor ROI.

Now here we are again … back on the alternatives and looking for better choices. Japan is first in line with their Prius and Honda Hybrids … VW and Mercedes is leading the pack with highly successful modern diesels and US based corporations are once again flat footed while those pumping the oil in the middle east are smiling all the way to their palaces.

Question is … will petroleum production come back on line after sinking our economy again? (how many times will it happen?) I can see it happening all over again … the petroleum will slowly come into the system controlled by foreign countries and the largest of the oil companies. The new found life toward efficiency and better alternatives to our dependence on oil will find it harder and harder to compete and once again the US addiction to petroleum will continue as interest in alternatives, efficiency and smarter energy dries up.

One option is to have congress evaluate how many tax dollars go toward securing the need for oil. Do we fund projects and protect oil assets around the world? Yes. Perhaps this cost be reflected in the price for oil? We can do this with a petroleum related tax (or call it something else if the word irritate you as much as it does me) and A REDUCTION of the same coming from our income taxes. Not all the far fetched … as anti-tax and free market kind of guy I am … it made perfect sense. I’m open for suggestions if you have a better way to continue to encourage something to break our addiction.

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