Book: “The End of the World is just the Beginning” – Peter Zeihan

Posted By on October 29, 2022

My friend Jeff and I enjoy discussing and debating nearly every topic under the sun, but few subjects have held our attention over the decades like the impact of technology on society, TheEndOfTheWorld_PeterZeihan._mgeopolitics and how changing governments handle or don’t handle the demographics shifts.

I tend to look at it from the perspective of an investor and “pretend” economist; Jeff often looks at it from the bigger “doom and gloom” economic collapse of society picture (and often how it relates to Biblical revelation).

The latest book we are reading together is the 2022 book by Peter Zeihan,The End Of The World Is Just The Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization.” Neither of us bought the book, but instead borrowed it digitally from the library. I prefer using the Libby app (for libraries using Overdrive) since I can often read it on my Kindle, but this time the only copy that was available was on Hoopla which only let’s me read it on the iPad, but also had an audio copy available – sometimes nice too (here’s the PDF from Harper Collins and a “Future of Agriculture” map).

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Tech Friday: Apple has new iPads and upping Services pricing

Posted By on October 28, 2022

AppleTV4KimageFor those using Apple products and subscription services, the monthly cost is going up. The company announced new version of their iPad lineup this week followed by the news that they are hiking fees for Apple Music and Apple TV+ subscription services this week for the very first time.

In the U.S., the cost of Apple TV+ for new and existing subscribers will increase to $6.99 per month. That’s a 40% increase form the original $4.99 per month, the price point it originally launched at in November 2019.

Apple Music is increasing from $9.99 to $10.99 per month for the individual plan, while the family plan (which provides up to six accounts) will increase $2, from $14.99 to $16.99 per month. It’s the first price hike for the service since it first bowed in June 2015.

In addition, the price of the Apple One bundle — which includes Apple Music and Apple TV+ — will increase starting Monday (Oct. 24), rising $2 from $14.95 to $16.95 per month for the individual plan. Apple One also includes Apple Arcade, iCloud+, Apple News+ and Apple Fitness+.

READ MORE

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As a $AAPL shareholder, seeing “subscription services” revenue increase as content improves (and inflation rises) is a good thing. With a steadily growing (and hooked) subscription user base, Services now accounts for 23.6% of Apple’s sales.

Services Growth to Slow Down in Q4

Apple expects Services revenue growth to be lower than the June-end quarter due to challenging macroeconomic conditions and unfavorable forex. In the fiscal third quarter, Services revenues grew 12.1% from the year-ago quarter to $19.60 billion and accounted for 23.6% of sales.

LINK

The question in my mind is that with a slowing economy either currently in, or heading into a recession, will consumers continue to pay for more and more streaming services from the growing number of providers? At what price point will even Apple devotees jump ship?

The 1986 Mazda James Garner ad was a favorite #TBT

Posted By on October 27, 2022

Favorite actors pitching products has been a staple in the advertising business for a long time … probably because it works!

Shortly after this Gigi and James Garner commercial came out for Mazda 323 in 1986, we bought a “new” 1988 Mazda 626 turbo that replaced a Volkswagen Golf (MK2 Wolfsburg edition). To this day the 626 Turbo remains Brenda’s favorite car … even with the crazy “strangling” automatic seatbelts!
 

Weekend BMW X5 35d Eurol Oil 5W-30 and Filter changes

Posted By on October 26, 2022

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Last Saturday’s project was some overdue maintenance on what was a very nice day her in SW Ohio. The temps were warm at 77 degrees and the sky clear. I took the opportunity to Costco_NewLibertyTwpOH221022start draining the oil in the BMW X5 35d with 195K miles in the morning, then drove the Mercedes 300d Turbodiesel to meet my buddy Jeff for brunch … which turned into lunch instead (the wait was 45 minutes at Bob Evans) and even check on the new Costco going in just off Liberty Way here in Liberty Township. Who knows … Brenda and I may even eventually get a membership?

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As mentioned earlier, the Ravenol oil that I’ve used previously was getting way too expensive … just as is was the previous change. In 2020, I switched to Rowe brand 5W-30 full synthetic. This go around I opted for a Eurol 5W-30 full synthetic kit (actually 2 of them) from Blauparts and don’t expect to notice anything difference; it is still a premium European spec oil designed for the BMW diesels.

I’m sticking with the Mann Filters for both oil and air, although gave thought to just cleaning the air filter out with the vacuum cleaner since it still looked pretty good (probably not a good idea … so I put the new air filter in too). The X5 should be good until 210,000 miles as besides noticing cosmetic wear, mechanically it is sound.

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Our granddaughters’ First Ohio State Buckeyes football game

Posted By on October 25, 2022

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Music Monday: Fox Business on TV, Disco and the Bee Gees

Posted By on October 24, 2022

OfficeTV_BeeGees221021Music Monday triggers can come from anywhere. Today’s was from segment music on a morning Fox Business program and triggered a“disco” flavored song from the Saturday Night Fever soundtrack in 1977.

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  “More Than a Woman” was a Bee Gees song and was paired with a serene Minnesota early morning lake photo (new TV on office wall).  This late 1970s music memory were enough to capture my attention … even if I wasn’t a disco music listener … although I did own a m”odest” leisure suit in high school.

Since including this song from YouTube (concert in 1997), I’ll also attach this “The Very, Very Beginning of the Bee Gees” article by Juliet Bennett Rylah (and outdated post, but still an interesting read).

Inflation and the 2023 tax year Federal tax bracket

Posted By on October 23, 2022

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The Federal tax brackets are adjusted each year by the IRS based on inflation numbers in an attempt to stop “bracket creep.” This prices have soared as in September 2022 consumer prices were up 8.2% compared to 2021. It is likely most Americans have not seen that kind of wage increase which means their buying power is reduced and quality of life diminished. An interview with a politician commented that “if you’re living on the same income as last year, with inflation running at 8+%, it is as if you are working one month for free.”

According to an Axios article, the good news (cough, cough) is that …

Worth noting: The jump could have been higher if not for a tax overhaul signed by former President Trump in 2017, the New York Times reports.

  • Republicans at the time tied the adjustments to the chained Consumer Price Index, which tends to rise at a slower pace than the standard CPI.
  • In September, chained CPI grew 0.2 percentage points slower than the standard CPI compared to 2021.

LINK

  Hm, I don’t hearing many taxpayers cheering with excitement?  #sarcasm

Is it going to be a wet or dry winter?

Posted By on October 22, 2022

The answer from NOAA is that it depends on where you live.

The general prediction is for a bit dryer in the south and a bit wetter in the northwestern US and Great Lakes .. but perhaps we should check with the authority? 🙂

Archiving: A trip to NW Ohio to see our granddaughters

Posted By on October 22, 2022

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Changing the 2010 BMW X5 35’s oil is getting very expensive

Posted By on October 21, 2022

BMWX535din2017With inflation raging and oil prices sky high, opting for the most premium synthetic oil is no longer and option for my aging 2010 BMW X5 35d diesel. I’ve been using Ravenol and usually do my own oil and filter changes and although self-changing the oil on a premium diesel model is still better done at home, but adding 7 or 8 quarts and a filter still costs me $100 for even another European full-synthetic brand – Eurol. Previously, the Ravenol and filter was $86.38, but that same order is now $171.95 (Oct 2022 price bottom right) plus shipping.

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After a frustrating few minutes of Internet shopping, diesel focused site, Blauparts, offered a recommended oil for a bit less … plus if I doubleShock_OilChangeKitBMWX535d ordered, it was  another 10% off … plus free shipping. Still $15 more per self-change, BlawpartsLogobut better than $90 more (w/ shipping).

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Desultory - des-uhl-tawr-ee, -tohr-ee

  1. lacking in consistency, constancy, or visible order, disconnected; fitful: desultory conversation.
  2. digressing from or unconnected with the main subject; random: a desultory remark.
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