Over the Moon … for my granddaughter Ellerie
Posted By RichC on August 21, 2021
This content is restricted.
Look for the beautiful Milky Way in the night sky this August
Posted By RichC on August 21, 2021
The Milky Way Over Monument Valley, 2012. APOD/NASA
This was a great Milky Way photo from 2012 and gives me inspiration if Brenda and I ever do a US road trip. I’d love to plan one once we are retired, but road trips and “the journey vs destination” (and inside joke) are really not Brenda’s thing. Unlike me, who could be talked into inching along on an America Route 66 kind of trip, Brenda prefers highlights and checking off the boxes. A race with a goal or an accomplishment. I get it … two kinds of people … and probably a bunch in-between. Anyway .. if you enjoy looking up at the night sky on a clear night (often August) … check out this August Skymap PDF.
Some thoughts on investing as technology races forward
Posted By RichC on August 20, 2021
Most aging entrepreneurs and investors can “in hindsight” spot their mistakes and missed opportunities, but with age and experience, also comes wisdom. The pace of change is rapidly accelerating and decisions seem to be made much faster and happen quicker nowadays’; I suspect even millennials are learning this faster?
As a more cautious trader and investor (most of the time), I tend not to jump into the untested trades, non-profitable companies or the latest trends … therefore, I often miss opportunities. Owning mature established companies also comes with legacy risk and lethargic decision making by management. I find myself knowing about the “next thing” but not participating … and I often kick myself for being risk-averse. As everyone knows, most “hot” companies and start-ups are just too unknown and therefore risky. I missed picking the Dotcom survivors and finding right ecommerce companies when brick and mortar retailers struggled (like picking $AMZN at a few bucks a share), or support companies like $SHOP. More recently I have not been able to stomach the ups and downs of the crazy Meme stocks, blockchain companies or owning cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum or Doge Coin or even a company like Tesla with stellar products, but a ridiculously high valuation. $TSLA
BUT I also think of myself as a “contrarian” and dislike following the herd. It is something in my genes. I can even still recite lines to my favorite elementary school poem: “The Road Not Taken” by Robert Frost (click arrow for audio). I’m not sure how to apply this to investing, but read something from the investment contrarian Brett Owens and contemplated “what’s next” when it comes to not necessarily buying the next HOT stock, but the technology and backbone companies that makes it grow (see a segment from his newsletter and end of day chart 8/18 from Kiplinger below).
What does ZIP in the USPS “zipcode” stand for? #TBT
Posted By RichC on August 19, 2021
What Does ZIP in zip code stand for … for Throwback Thursday #TBT?
ZIP is an acronym using the first letters from Zoning Improvement Plan.
… and who doesn’t grin at 1963 marketing: Zip Code: With the Swingin’ Six. 😊
The “replacing our driveway project” is finally underway $$
Posted By RichC on August 18, 2021
It is a month and a half late, but concrete companies and for that matter most construction companies are very busy this summer. The COVID19pandemic has put most projects behind and perhaps we should be thankful to be on their schedule.
Tearing out (video from Canary Security Cam) and re-concreting a driveway is one of those expensive home maintenance items that is difficult to stomach since you really don’t see anything “new” for your money (it’s a cement driveway!) … and it is just something you drive on and plow snow off of. Still, our has been crumbling in spots for years and definitely needed to be replaced.
(more…)
A birthday celebration and fun family weekend in Cincinnati
Posted By RichC on August 17, 2021
This content is restricted.
Another albatross to hang around President Biden’s neck
Posted By RichC on August 16, 2021
The situation in Afghanistan is not something most of the civilized world wants to see, but within a few days we’ve watched the Taliban rapidly seize control throughout the country ever since President Biden telegraphed accelerating what was left of our military from our bases. Very few politicians have questioned the desire over the past decade in wanting to bring US troops home … especially after 20 years, 2000 dead American soldiers and a TRILLION dollars in an attempt to build up an Afghan security force and government.
As has happened before, whenever the US tries “nation-building,” it often fails. This time it seems our initial objective was met (hunt down Al-Qaeda and prevent terrorists from training and then attacking the western world and our country) but “helping to create a functioning government so it will not happen again” has failed … and failed miserably. Beside trying to leave with a weak government and security force in place, the Biden administration made the huge blunder in trying to do it during the 
Taliban’s “fighting season” rather than wait for winter when fighters return to Pakistan or the mountains (I assume Biden wanted us out before the 20th anniversary of 9/11?)
For the past 20 years (and decades prior) Taliban fighters were able to hide out in the mountains, smaller town and in Pakistan and continue to fight a guerilla war against opponents within their country (once it was the Soviets – see Charlie Wilson’s War movie). For the last decade, politicians, think tanks, intelligence advisors and our military generals have opined on the best exit strategy as ALL knew America’s patience and support in sending blood and treasure off to the Middle East and Afghanistan had disappeared … even among those who are most “hawkish.” Former President Trump was often criticized in his goal to leave the country and in particular in negotiating with the Taliban (seen as terrorists or at least providing assistance and protection). Most assumed that if he would have had a second term, we would have continued to leave the country … but with conditions (those negotiated by the Trump administration with the Taliban). One can argue the result would have eventually been the same once we left, but most clear thinkers can see that leaving without conditions as Biden is doing has created a far more dangerous situation. I can’t imagine living in a Taliban controlled country if you assisted or befriended the American … or for that matter if you are a girl or woman.
Personally, I wasn’t a fan of rapidly leaving without keeping a secure Air Force base in country. To me, it can be protected at minimal loss (although high cost) and would be able to assist our special forces who will no doubt be called on continually as terror training cells and hot spot pop up. If you don’t see that, you are naïve. I doubt we could have prevented the eventual takeover of the country by the Taliban, but without any presence there, it is almost a guarantee that radical Islamic groups will begin growing, training and 
plotting attacks from Afghanistan once again.
As the helicopters ferrying desperate people from Saigon in 1975 are burned into our minds (photo left), so to will the images of a Chinook hauling people from our embassy in Kabul (above) or the people clinging and falling from our Air Force planes that are attempting to airlift thousands of Americans and Afghan translators and families from the airport. It sickens me as do the continuing blunders from President Biden, VP Harris and his administration on everything from leaving Afghanistan .. to increased crime in our cities (soft-on-crime policies), illegals flooding across our southern border, COVID19 mix messaging, war on energy and higher taxes along with his Green New Deal climate policies and continued “rely on government” handout programs of all kinds. What a mess.
Music Monday: The Coasters, “Yakety Yak” and an aviation tweet
Posted By RichC on August 16, 2021
This content is restricted.
Local banking issues, blockchain technology and the interesting book: Crypto Asset Investing in the Age of Autonomy
Posted By RichC on August 15, 2021
For decades now I’ve had a fairly positive relationship with both business (CPP) and personal banking … and particularly with local banks. I grumbled the 1990s when multiple bank mergers forced out the manager I worked with in NE Ohio. He knew me by name and often pulled
me aside to see if there was anything my business needed. That was helpful for a small business owner and it was appreciated when starting a business. Unfortunately the changes brought “less personal” banking to both the small business and personal side … BUT we adapted and even learned to appreciate the efficiency improvements online banking brought us.
Lately though (the last decade perhaps), it seems banks are becoming desperate in squeezing existing customers and are looking for ways to make a buck here and there; it has been irritating and even a lot less personal (if that is possible). Recently a sneaky $10 fee for not “maintaining a $2500 DAILY balance” on a linked savings account surprised me. Even worse was that the Huntington Bank local branch couldn’t solve my minimal gripe, didn’t have current interest rates and didn’t know the balance requirements for their savings accounts. I ended up wasting a half hour on hold in 
order to talk with a customer service representative for him to tell me the minimum daily balance was $2500 … yet he still could not tell me what the interest rate was nor could he close out my offending account, although I did get the $10 charge reversed. If we are not receiving friendly personal service (or interest on account balances), why should we bank locally if all they are doing is using gimmicks to entice new and existing customers to open new and additional accounts then … drive them off by charging monthly fees? (although it is not quite the “open an account, get a toaster” from my mom and dad’s generation)
The whole fiasco has me wondering if banks, and in particular local banks, are doomed once cryptocurrency digital wallets and connected smart device like watches and phones using blockchain technology go mainstream?
As for the book, my buddy Jeff loaned me an interesting blockchain – cryptocurrency book to read by Jake Ryan called “Crypto Asset Investing in the Age of Autonomy” and he likely is waiting on my thoughts and opinion (we tend to discuss these kinds of things). 
Of course I’ve been intrigued and frightened in watching so many in our society (especially the millennials) leaping onboard without understanding where they are sending their money and what they are buying/trading/investing in … pick your description. I’ve been a fractional shares holder for a couple of years now and am reluctant to call buying Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc “investing” since it current resembles an unregulated artificial asset that resembles a pyramid scheme … or probably more appropriately a privately traded “currently” non-functional currency without something tangible behind it like a precious metal, a commodity, share of a company or even a fiat currency issued by a government. Crypto advocates of all flavors are quick to point out that most other assets we hold that do not have intrinsic value either and are priced in a similar supply-demand fashion … Hunter Biden’s artwork comes to mind (ok, that was a joke … or should I say IS a joke).
As I started reading the “Author’s Note” section, I was immediately intrigued since the author is a much bigger thinker than the narrow mind of someone who just wants to know which cryptocurrencies to buy and which avoid (thinking like a stockpicker). The point Mr. Ryan quickly makes is how much like the “Industrial Age” and “Information Age” … he believe we are in the “Age of Autonomy” where blockchain technology is going to be the way people gain back control of their personal information. If you don’t see it currently, much of big tech for the most part is in the business of collecting your personal information. They then either sell it or market using it … or both. It is one thing when AI scans your social networks and Gmail in order to help sell you what you want (or might want) … it is another when it builds a profile that has everything from your health information, politics, purchase history, who you communicate with and every place you have been for as far back as you’ve been freely giving them your GPS locations. (Check out the Netflix movie: The Social Network – preview)
Competition, the drive for efficiency, and continuous improvement ultimately push businesses toward automation and later towards autonomy. If a business can operate without human intervention, it will minimize its operational cost.
If Uber can remove the expense of a driver with an autonomous vehicle, it will provide its service cheaper than a competitor who can’t. If an artificially intelligent trading company can search, find, and take advantage of some arbitrage opportunity, then it can profit where its competitors cannot. A business that can analyze and execute in real-time without needing to wait for a human to act, is a business that will be able to take advantage of brief inefficiencies from other markets or businesses.
This trend following a thesis that is based on 100 years of proven economic theory. Short-wave economic cycles, those 5- to 10-year cycles, are driven by credit but the long-wave economic cycles, those 50- to 60-year cycles, are driven by technological revolution. We’ve had 5 cycles over the past 200 years with the last wave, the Age of Information & Telecommunications.
We’ve seen evidence that a new cycle has begun. Technological revolutions come by way of a cluster of new innovations. About a decade ago, you started to see AI, robotics and IoT (sensors) delivering on automation. That’s been powerful, but not transformational. It does not force businesses to fundamentally change how they do business. The last piece of the puzzle was cryptocurrency because it allows us to process and transfer economic value without human intervention. Soon, there will be a global race to build autonomous operations. Businesses and organizations without autonomous operations simply will not be able to compete with those that do because … autonomy is the ultimate competitive advantage.
Crypto is the mechanism that will accrue value from being the infrastructure for the next digital financial revolution. Crypto Asset Investing lays out a case that we’ve begun a new technological revolution similar to the Internet Age of the 1990’s. Artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, robotics and cryptocurrency are converging to deliver on a new age, what I call the Age of Autonomy. Understanding the transformation that’s taken place before anyone else can yield enormous investment opportunity. In this book, you’ll learn how and why to invest in crypto assets.
Primer: An retirement savings decision making cheat sheet
Posted By RichC on August 14, 2021
The older I get, the less investment risk I’m comfortable taking. Perhaps it is not the age thing, but having experienced stock market gyrations and what happens to our investments?
For those of us in small business or in the gig economy, and increasingly 
for those who move from company to company, we are our own investment decision-makers. Even for those working at small companies, gone are the days of pensions and company managed investments. For much of America … this mean we are saddled with making decisions regarding saving and planning for your retirement. If you do it well, and stay healthy, then you’ll likely be more comfortable than those who rely on their employer or a government plan. If you do it poorly, your golden years are likely to be filled with regret.
So what are your options?
- A robo-advisor or pay an investment advisor or company a percentage of what you budget to make decisions for you. It is likely they’ll take at least 1% of your assets (likely more) every year whether they make you money or not (watch for the hidden cost too). It is a hard pill to swallow for those who may have independently made decisions their whole life (common for entrepreneurs).
- Choose Mutual Funds which have long been the way individuals have saved and balanced the risk of owning individual stocks and bonds or having to make buy and sell decisions on the assets they hold. Mutual Funds have fees, but many are palatable and smaller percentages. They are easier to cut ties with (sell) if you don’t like their performance and fees or when your risk profile changes when you get older. Mutual funds are priced once each day at 4PM EST but are well design for those who might want to tweak only once or twice a year … if that?
- Open a brokerage account and trade Individual Stocks, Bonds (or CDs, life insurance plans and annuities, etc) – Those who are confident in their decision-making will be happy doing this, but statically they often fail to maintain stable portfolios or even keep up with the professional managers or Mutual Funds after paying fees. Buying single stocks can be is pretty risky and having only a few stocks is like closing your eyes and walking across a country road – probably safe but risky. Still, if consistently done right, you won’t be giving up the saved management fees .. and they can compound year after year and be retained in your portfolio.
- Finally there are ETFs and CEFs. This last segment is becoming increasingly popular since the combination and variety ETFs and CEFs along with online screening tools can help reduce risk and cost. They offer a wide variety of investment options (too many choices) and reduce risk by holding a bucket of stock, etc in one ticker symbol (diversity within similar assets). They can be strictly “index-tracking” related shares or structured to change based on your age. The assets are passively managed (low fees) in the case of ETFs, or actively managed by professionals with those associated risks, but can reward with better returns and higher dividends for their higher fees in the case of CEFs. The advantage for those who want to trade more often, in these days of low and no commissions, is that they can be bought and sold throughout the trading day.
The learning center at Fidelity had a great chart and write-up that might be helpful … and helpful enough to archive below.
Desultory - des-uhl-tawr-ee, -tohr-ee
- lacking in consistency, constancy, or visible order, disconnected; fitful: desultory conversation.
- digressing from or unconnected with the main subject; random: a desultory remark.