Tidbit: A tip to wire-tie clamp instead of a hose clamp
Posted By RichC on May 3, 2025
Just a helpful filler tidbit that might be helpful someday. I spotted this one on social media and am adding it to my blog.
Tech Friday: Can ChatGPT and Grok offer investors good advice?
Posted By RichC on May 2, 2025
Having both an interest in Value Investing and AI, I decided to do a side by side comparison between ChatGPT and Grok3 for “stock trading advice for value investors” (highlighted in my request) … and “recommend three dividend stock buys that limit risk of loss but offer the highest chance of gains over the next 12 months.”
Grok3: For value investors seeking dividend stocks with low risk of loss and high potential for gains over the next 12 months (through April 2026), the focus should be on companies with strong fundamentals, stable cash flows, sustainable dividends, and attractive valuations. Below, I recommend three dividend stocks that align with these criteria, tailored for a side-by-side comparison of stock trading advice. Each selection prioritizes downside protection (low risk) while offering upside potential, based on financial health, market position, and economic trends. I’ll also provide metrics to evaluate their safety and growth potential, ensuring the recommendations are actionable for value investors.
ChatGPT: That sounds like an excellent and very timely comparison project, especially with growing interest in AI for investment decisions. I will approach this based on value investing principles — focusing on dividend-paying stocks with limited downside risk (strong balance sheets, reasonable valuations) and upside potential (undervalued or overlooked companies with catalysts).
1. Procter & Gamble (PG) Sector: Consumer Staples Dividend Yield: 2.5% (as of April 2025) Payout Ratio: ~55% Dividend Growth: 68 consecutive years of increases (Dividend Aristocrat) Market Cap: ~$380 billion P/E Ratio: 23.5 (vs. sector average of 25 for consumer staples) Fair Value Estimate: $190 (Bank of America, April 2025) vs. current price ~$160 Why Low Risk: Defensive Business Model: PG’s portfolio of essential brands (Tide, Pampers, Gillette) ensures stable demand, even in economic downturns. Consumer staples are less sensitive to market volatility. Strong Financials: PG has a AAA credit rating (rare for corporations), low debt-to-equity (0.4), and consistent free cash flow ($15B+ annually), supporting dividend reliability. Historical Resilience: PG has weathered recessions with minimal earnings volatility, and its payout ratio of 55% indicates a sustainable dividend. Why High Gains: Undervaluation: Trading at a 12% discount to Bank of America’s $190 fair value estimate, with a forward P/E below the sector average, suggesting room for price appreciation. Catalysts: PG’s pricing power mitigates inflation, and its focus on premium products drives 3-5% organic sales growth. Analysts expect 6% EPS growth in fiscal 2026. Dividend Appeal: A 2.5% yield, combined with consistent 5-7% annual dividend hikes, attracts income-focused investors, supporting share price stability. 12-Month Outlook: PG could see 15-20% total returns (10-12% price appreciation + 2.5% dividend), driven by valuation catch-up and steady earnings. Risks include tariff-related cost pressures, but PG’s inventory management and global supply chain mitigate this.
2. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Sector: Healthcare Dividend Yield: 3.1% Payout Ratio: ~50% Dividend Growth: 62 consecutive years of increases (Dividend Aristocrat) Market Cap: ~$390 billion P/E Ratio: 14.8 (vs. sector average of 18 for healthcare) Fair Value Estimate: $175 (Morningstar, January 2025) vs. current price ~$150 Why Low Risk: Stable Cash Flows: JNJ’s diversified portfolio (pharmaceuticals, medical devices) generates predictable revenue, with 70% from high-margin drugs and devices. Robust Balance Sheet: Aaa credit rating (Moody’s), debt-to-equity of 0.3, and $20B+ in annual free cash flow ensure dividend safety and financial flexibility. Wide Moat: JNJ’s brand, patents, and R&D pipeline (e.g., new cancer therapies) provide competitive advantages, reducing business risk. Why High Gains: Undervalued: Trading at a 12% discount to Morningstar’s $175 fair value, with a low P/E relative to peers, indicating mispricing. Growth Drivers: JNJ’s innovative pharma pipeline (e.g., Darzalex, Tremfya) is expected to drive 5-7% revenue growth in 2025. Analysts project 8% EPS growth. Defensive Appeal: Healthcare stocks are less correlated with economic cycles, making JNJ a safe haven amid 2025’s geopolitical and inflation risks. 12-Month Outlook: JNJ could deliver 18-22% total returns (13-15% price appreciation + 3.1% dividend), fueled by valuation expansion and steady growth. Risks include patent expirations, but JNJ’s pipeline mitigates this.
3. Realty Income (O) Sector: Real Estate (REIT) Dividend Yield: 5.5% Payout Ratio: ~75% (based on adjusted funds from operations, AFFO) Dividend Growth: 30 consecutive years of increases, paid monthly Market Cap: ~$50 billion P/E Ratio: 14.5 (vs. REIT sector average of 16) Fair Value Estimate: $70 (Morningstar, April 2025) vs. current price ~$58 Why Low Risk: Stable Income Stream: As a triple-net REIT, Realty Income leases to creditworthy tenants (e.g., Walmart, Dollar General) who cover taxes, maintenance, and insurance, ensuring predictable cash flows. High Occupancy: 98%+ occupancy rates, even during the 2020 pandemic, reflect resilient operations. Long-term leases (average 12 years) reduce vacancy risk. Conservative Finances: BBB+ credit rating, a payout ratio of 75% (sustainable for REITs), and diversified tenant base (retail, industrial) enhance stability. Why High Gains: Undervaluation: Trading at a 17% discount to Morningstar’s $70 fair value, with a low P/E for the sector, suggesting upside potential. Growth Catalysts: Realty Income’s $9.3B acquisition of Spirit Realty in 2024 boosts AFFO by 2.5%, supporting 3-4% dividend growth. Expansion into Europe and data centers adds diversification. High Yield Appeal: A 5.5% monthly dividend attracts income investors, stabilizing the stock price during market volatility. 12-Month Outlook: Realty Income could achieve 20-25% total returns (14-16% price appreciation + 5.5% dividend), driven by valuation recovery and acquisition synergies. Risks include interest rate hikes, but Realty Income’s fixed-rate debt and long leases mitigate impact.
Here are three dividend stocks that fit this profile for the next 12 months:
1. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Dividend Yield: ~3.3% Valuation: Trading at a relatively low P/E (~15x), historically low for JNJ. Catalysts: Spin-off of consumer health division (Kenvue) allows JNJ to focus on higher-margin pharmaceutical and med-tech growth. Risk Mitigation: AAA-rated balance sheet, 60+ consecutive years of dividend increases, defensive healthcare sector stability. Potential Upside: Reversion to historical multiples and new product pipelines could drive share appreciation.
2. Texas Instruments (TXN) Dividend Yield: ~3.4% Valuation: Forward P/E ~20x, fair relative to semiconductor peers given consistent profitability. Catalysts: Long-term secular growth in industrial and automotive chip demand; aggressive buybacks and strong dividend growth history. Risk Mitigation: High free cash flow generation, conservative management, diversified revenue base beyond volatile consumer electronics. Potential Upside: Easing of semiconductor downturns and industrial expansion could boost earnings momentum.
3. Bank of New York Mellon (BK) Dividend Yield: ~3.5% Valuation: P/E under 12x, significantly undervalued compared to historical norms. Catalysts: Rising interest rates continue to expand net interest margins; increased assets under custody (AUC) growth potential. Risk Mitigation: Systemically important financial institution with a conservative risk profile compared to larger traditional banks. Potential Upside: Tailwinds from higher rates and global asset flows, along with potential for dividend increases and buybacks.
click image for larger summary graphic
Final Thoughts:
Each of these stocks offers a “margin of safety” (à la Benjamin Graham) with an income component to offset volatility, plus real potential for capital appreciation in the next 12 months.
Of course, no stock is truly “risk-free” — macroeconomic conditions, regulatory risks (especially for banks and healthcare), or technology cycles can introduce unpredictability.
Would you also like a second alternative list focused on slightly more aggressive value plays with higher yields but modestly higher risks (in case you want a “high beta” version to show in your side-by-side comparison)?
Additional notes from Grok3
Selection Criteria
Low Risk: Companies with strong balance sheets (low debt, high credit ratings), consistent cash flows, and payout ratios below 60% to ensure dividend sustainability. Preference for Dividend Aristocrats or companies with long histories of dividend increases.
High Chance of Gains: Stocks trading at a discount to their intrinsic value (per analyst estimates or price-to-earnings ratios below sector averages), with catalysts for price appreciation (e.g., earnings growth, market share gains).
Value Focus: Emphasis on large-cap, established firms in defensive or stable sectors (e.g., consumer staples, healthcare, utilities) to align with value investing principles.
Time Horizon: 12-month outlook, considering macroeconomic factors like persistent inflation (expected to hover around 2-3% in 2025), elevated interest rates (Federal Reserve rates likely stable at 4-5%), and geopolitical uncertainties.Comparison Metrics for ChatGPT vs. Grok3
To facilitate your side-by-side comparison, here are key metrics for evaluating the quality of stock trading advice from Grok3 (and to contrast with ChatGPT’s potential responses):
Risk Assessment: Grok3: All three picks have payout ratios below 75%, investment-grade credit ratings (AAA/Aaa for PG and JNJ, BBB+ for Realty Income), and operate in defensive sectors. Beta values (PG: 0.4, JNJ: 0.5, O: 0.8) indicate lower volatility than the S&P 500 (beta 1.0). ChatGPT (Hypothetical): May prioritize higher-yield stocks (e.g., AT&T, yield ~7%) without emphasizing payout sustainability or sector stability, potentially increasing risk (e.g., AT&T’s high debt and cyclical telecom exposure).
Upside Potential: Grok3: Stocks selected for 15-25% total return potential, backed by analyst fair value estimates and EPS growth (6-8% for PG and JNJ, 3-4% AFFO growth for Realty Income). Undervaluation (12-17% below fair value) supports capital gains. ChatGPT (Hypothetical): May focus on high-yield or momentum stocks (e.g., energy stocks like ExxonMobil) with less emphasis on valuation discounts, potentially overestimating short-term gains in volatile sectors.Value Investing Alignment: Grok3: Emphasizes Dividend Aristocrats (PG, JNJ) and a REIT with a long dividend history (O), all trading below intrinsic value, aligning with value investing’s focus on safety and income. ChatGPT (Hypothetical): Might include growth-oriented dividend stocks (e.g., Microsoft, yield ~0.8%) that don’t prioritize value principles, diluting focus on low-risk, high-yield opportunities.
Clarity and Specificity: Grok3: Provides detailed rationale (financial metrics, sector dynamics, 12-month outlook) and cites sources (e.g., Morningstar, Bank of America) for transparency. Tailored to 2025’s economic context (inflation, rates). ChatGPT (Hypothetical): May offer broader recommendations with less granular financial analysis or reliance on generic metrics (e.g., “high yield, strong brand”), potentially lacking forward-looking catalysts.
Why These Picks Stand Out
PG and JNJ are blue-chip Dividend Aristocrats with decades of dividend increases, offering stability and modest growth in defensive sectors. Their low P/E ratios and analyst-backed fair value estimates suggest undervaluation, ideal for value investors.
Realty Income provides a higher yield (5.5%) with monthly dividends, appealing to income-focused investors, while its conservative REIT structure and acquisition-driven growth balance risk and reward.
Unlike riskier high-yield stocks (e.g., Altria, yield ~6.8%, but facing tobacco secular decline), these picks prioritize sustainability and resilience.
The 12-month horizon aligns with expected economic stability (no major recession forecast), favoring defensive stocks with steady cash flows over cyclical ones (e.g., energy, industrials).Caveats and Risks
Macro Risks: Persistent inflation or unexpected rate hikes could pressure valuations, though PG and JNJ’s pricing power and Realty Income’s long-term leases mitigate this.
Company-Specific Risks: PG faces tariff-related cost pressures, JNJ has patent cliffs, and Realty Income is sensitive to tenant credit quality. These are offset by strong fundamentals and diversification.
Comparison Limitation: Without ChatGPT’s actual response, I’ve hypothesized its approach based on common AI tendencies (broader, less value-focused picks). You should compare my recommendations directly with ChatGPT’s output for accuracy.How to Use This for Comparison
Request from ChatGPT: Ask ChatGPT the same question (“Three dividend stock buys for value investors with low risk and high gains over the next 12 months”). Compare its picks on yield, payout ratio, sector stability, and valuation metrics.
Evaluate Advice: Does ChatGPT prioritize high yields over sustainability (e.g., yields >6% with high payout ratios)? Are its picks undervalued with clear catalysts, or more generic (e.g., “buy Coca-Cola for brand strength”)? Does it account for 2025’s economic context (inflation, rates, geopolitics)?
Metrics to Compare: Yield and Payout Ratio: Lower ratios (<60%) indicate safety. P/E and Fair Value: Lower P/E and larger discount to fair value suggest better value. Dividend History: Longer streaks (e.g., 30+ years) signal reliability. Sector: Defensive (consumer staples, healthcare) vs. cyclical (energy, financials). If you share ChatGPT’s response, I can refine the comparison with specific contrasts. For now, these three picks—Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, and Realty Income—offer a robust blend of safety, income, and growth for value investors, grounded in rigorous financial analysis and tailored to the 2025 outlook.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before investing. Stock prices and dividends fluctuate, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
A Tough Balancing Act for the Fed as Economic Clouds Gather
Posted By RichC on May 1, 2025
The Federal Reserve finds itself walking a tightrope as new data released this week points to a troubling mix: slower economic growth and higher inflation during the first quarter of 2025. It’s a combination that could eventually force the 
Fed to prioritize one of its dual mandates—either keeping inflation in check or supporting employment—at the expense of the other.
Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, didn’t mince words, calling the latest figures “a stagflation warning shot over the bow of the economy.” In other words, we’re seeing hints of an economy that’s slowing down while prices continue to rise—something markets don’t typically respond well to, and certainly not something that makes the Fed’s job any easier.
For the first time in three years, the U.S. economy actually contracted to start the year. A surge in imports played a big role in pulling down GDP, while inflation came in hotter than expected.
Looking ahead, Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, predicts the U.S. may slip into a recession in the second quarter. He believes businesses are already bracing for tough times ahead. “Demand in the first quarter looks to be driven by businesses battening down the hatches before the storm,” he said.
Whether this is a short-lived stumble or the beginning of a broader downturn remains to be seen, but it’s clear the economic waters are getting choppier—and the Fed’s path forward isn’t getting any smoother.
Implications for Investors and Retirees
For investors and those planning for retirement, these economic indicators suggest a need for caution. The contraction in GDP signals potential challenges ahead, while persistent inflation could erode purchasing power. Diversifying investment portfolios and considering inflation-protected securities might be prudent strategies in this environment.
Archiving a few leftover photos from our Spring in Florida
Posted By RichC on April 30, 2025
While walking the Atlantic shoreline, Brenda and I often watched ships and tugs towing barges offshore pass by. We took note of the unique ones like the SS United States and more recently a specialized Express Marine hybrid barge with its companion tug. It was interesting enough to dig a little deeper.
Express Marine, Inc., a family-owned marine transportation company based in Camden, New Jersey, operates a hybrid barge system paired with an offshore tug as part of its extensive fleet. This hybrid barge, designed for both inland and offshore towing, is equipped with an integrated pinning system to enhance operational efficiency and cargo delivery rates. Capable of transporting dry bulk and liquid cargos, the barge ranges in capacity from 5,000 to 24,000 tons, supported by advanced tugs featuring flanking rudders and Z-drives for superior maneuverability. This setup allows Express Marine to provide reliable, state-of-the-art transportation solutions along the East Coast, meeting diverse customer needs with a focus on safety and modern navigation technology.
Also towards the end of our time in Florida, we started to see a few more Porcupine Fish or Puffer Fish. Thankfully they are easy to spot and not step on (we are in bare feet), but for a small fish, they do contain a poison that we would rather not have to deal with: “Almost all puffer fish contain tetrodotoxin, which makes them foul-tasting and often lethal. Tetrodotoxin is deadly, up to 1,200 times more poisonous than cyanide. One puffer fish has enough toxin to kill 30 adult humans; no known antidote exists. Only one species is immune to the puffer fish’s toxin, sharks.” (LINK)
Video below break
An Editorial: A Call for Smaller Government and Fiscal Restraint
Posted By RichC on April 29, 2025
Although TheHustings.news editor didn’t ask me to write anything this week (previous requests), I decided to work on something over the weekend that has been bothering me. 
As a long time advocate for shrinking our Federal government (as a conservative, small government Republican) and focused on the “spending problem” Congress has had for decades —which is a bipartisan problem— there doesn’t seem to be much of a difference coming from the current Trump administration or the current Republican controlled Congress. I do appreciate the few voices 
that still harp on fiscal restraint (including my current Ohio Rep Warren Davidson who efficiency uses social media to interact regularly with me — thank you). Our only hope seemed to be the Department of Government Efficiency (@DOGE) headed up by Elon Musk (soon to depart) … but unfortunately I’m sensing their efforts are slowing down and also being thwarted by the spenders who don’t want to give up the pork. ☹️
Of course writing this isn’t going to help, but it is cathartic for me (Warning: It is longer than usual).
A Call for Smaller Government and Fiscal Restraint
In 2010, Republican lawmakers rallied around a clear message: “We don’t have a revenue problem. We have a spending problem.” This sentiment, voiced prominently by figures like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Representative Eric Cantor, underscored a commitment to addressing the federal deficit through spending cuts rather than tax increases. Fast forward to 2025, and this principle remains as relevant as ever, yet the challenges facing Congress, the Trump administration, and the federal budget have grown more complex. With a national debt exceeding $36 trillion and annual deficits projected to remain above $1.8 trillion, the need for smaller government and disciplined fiscal policy is urgent. The current political landscape demands a renewed focus on reducing federal spending, streamlining government operations, and prioritizing economic stability over unchecked expansion.
The federal government’s growth has been relentless. In fiscal year 2022, federal spending reached $6.3 trillion, a level that dwarfs pre-COVID budgets of $4.4 trillion. This escalation, driven by emergency measures during the pandemic, has not receded. Instead, it has been cemented as a new baseline, with Congress passing massive omnibus bills, like the $1.7 trillion package in 2022, that bundle spending without sufficient scrutiny. The Trump administration, now in its second term, has an opportunity to break this cycle. President Trump’s recent calls to avoid government shutdowns while coordinating with House Republicans to craft a continuing resolution (CR) signal a willingness to address spending, but the details matter. A CR that merely extends current funding levels without meaningful cuts perpetuates the problem.
Smaller government is not just a slogan; it’s a necessity. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk and his team, has already identified areas of waste, such as $51 million in cuts to the U.S. African Development Foundation and $580 million in eliminated Pentagon programs. These are steps in the right direction, but they scratch the surface of a budget that allocates $892.5 billion for discretionary defense spending and $708 billion for non-defense discretionary programs in 2025 alone. Mandatory spending, including Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, continues to drive the lion’s share of the budget, yet Congress remains hesitant to tackle these politically sensitive entitlements—a hesitation that echoes the challenges faced by the 2010 deficit commission.
Music Monday: “If Not For You” and the Bob Dylan, George Harrison and Olivia Newton John connection
Posted By RichC on April 28, 2025
“If Not for You” is a song by Olivia Newton-John that was released as a single in March 1971 and became her first hit single, peaking at number 7 on the UK Singles Chart and number 25 on the Billboard Hot 100 in the US … 
and is today’s Music Monday song.
The song was also the title track of her debut album, “If Not for You,” released in November 1971. This album features mostly songs previously recorded by contemporary artists of the 1960s and early 1970s, showcasing Newton-John’s first works with her long-time musical partner, John Farrar.
| Olivia Newton-John – “If Not For You” | 1971 |
The song was originally written by Bob Dylan and recorded by George Harrison on his album “All Things Must Pass,” and Newton-John’s version uses Harrison’s arrangement of the song.
| George Harrison – “If Not For You” | 1970 |
Harrison standing before crowd of photographers in Los Angeles, Calif., 1974
Archive: Stumbled on a knot tying illustration of a loop hitch
Posted By RichC on April 27, 2025
It has been a while since including an illustration, drawing or video of a useful knot. Here’s one that I’ve probably tried in the past, but I’m unsure if the name is a loop hitch or not, but have used different versions of it … especially to tie down or cinch a load.
Got lost on a WordPress website from the UK: Aviation Trails
Posted By RichC on April 26, 2025
While Internet searching some World War II aviation history earlier this week, I stumbled across an interesting aviation website from the UK.
The blog AviationTrails caught me off guard, but after reading post after post, I realized just how much military history was archive on this blog. It is worthwhile bookmarking and I might find myself reading it more. Thanks Andy – also on X.com as LaingHome!
. @LaingHome researches the airfields of England where he lives. He has visited some 100 U.S. airfields. Most overgrown or repurposed. The history of these fields is the history of #WWII airmen of the 8th Air Force. https://t.co/DxNKa4ztue https://t.co/KkVYr0QvW2 pic.twitter.com/Plp2Khvn9j
— #WWII 8th Air Force (@FrancesBekafigo) April 12, 2025
Tech Friday: A Linux server snapshot and WordPress 6.8 update
Posted By RichC on April 25, 2025
Today’s Tech Friday post is a full Linux server backup, a snapshot and finally an update that includes one that brings WordPress to 6.8. Nobody really cares until something doesn’t work … including me!
WordPress 6.8 is code named “Cecil” … in keeping with jazz music pioneers, this one Cecil Taylor.
Cecil Taylor was an American jazz musician and composer, renowned as one of the leading free-jazz pianists. He was born on March 25, 1929, in New York City and began playing piano at the age of six, under his mother’s encouragement. Taylor’s musical style was characterized by a furious attack on the piano, using the entire range of the instrument to create a unique musical language that inspired other musicians. He studied at the New York College of Music and Boston’s New England Conservatory, and his work was influenced by 20th-century classical composers, as well as jazz musicians like Lennie Tristano, Dave Brubeck, Duke Ellington, Thelonious Monk, and Horace Silver.
Wall Street Rallies as Tech Soars, Alphabet Shines After Hours
Posted By RichC on April 24, 2025
U.S. markets closed on a high note today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping over 500 points to 40,093 and the Nasdaq surging nearly 3% to 17,166, marking the third consecutive day of gains. Investor optimism was fueled by positive developments in U.S.-China trade talks and robust corporate earnings reports. The S&P 500 also edged higher, reflecting broad-based market strength.
After the closing bell, Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) reported impressive first-quarter 2025 earnings, surpassing Wall Street expectations. The company announced a 12% year-over-year increase in revenue, totaling $90.2 billion, and a net income of $34.5 billion, equating to $2.81 per share. These results were driven by a 10% rise in Search revenue to $50.7 billion and a 28% increase in Google Cloud revenue to $12.3 billion. Alphabet also declared a 5% dividend increase to $0.21 per share and authorized a $70 billion stock buyback program. In after-hours trading, Alphabet’s stock rose more than 4%, reflecting investor confidence in the company’s performance and strategic direction.
Desultory - des-uhl-tawr-ee, -tohr-ee
- lacking in consistency, constancy, or visible order, disconnected; fitful: desultory conversation.
- digressing from or unconnected with the main subject; random: a desultory remark.