My Desultory Blog

Posted By RichC on July 28, 2014

I regularly eyeball the government’s reported CPI inflation data (although question the applicability for real living in America?), and am concerned for those planning or already retired living on their “conservatively” invested savings. Many that I’ve talked with moved to cash positions after the 2008 recession or moved to much more conservative investments. Others hold a good chunk of their personal IRAs and 401K savings in low paying CD, bonds or even lower with money market savings. They do it thinking that they are protecting their capital … but fail to look at what the dollar is worth in buying power. A quick look (above) at what inflation can do to $50,000 sitting in cash over ten years should be a wake-up call when it comes to trying to live off ones saving for 20 or 30 years.

Inflation of goods and services averages about 3.2% a year.* Right now, we are in a period of very low inflation. But over time, inflation will return, maybe at the high rates we experienced in the early ’80s or maybe at lower rates. The smart bet is to plan on about 3% a year. While that doesn’t sound like much, here’s what it means: If you need $50,000 to live per year in retirement today, in 25 years you’ll need $100,000 per year to maintain the same standard of living. That’s because at 3% a year, the value of your money will fall by 50% over 25 years. Social Security is adjusted for inflation, giving you some protection, but your specific inflation rate might be different from the general inflation rate as a result of rapidly rising healthcare and long-term care costs.

You have to keep growing your investments throughout retirement or you could find your standard of living dropping each year. Another way to say it is that investments like CDs, bank accounts and certain bonds that protect 100% of your principal will give you the illusion of safety while slowly guaranteeing a reduction in your buying power over time. A smart financial plan accounts for inflation and can help in the pursuit of a lasting retirement income.

Category: Financial | No Comments »
Tags: 401k, cpi, finance, inflation, ira, planning, retirement

Posted By RichC on July 27, 2014

The interesting Elio “personal vehicle” has interested me since I first saw the companies marketing some time ago, but recentely decided that I wanted to get my reservation (with the 50% promo) in before it expires. The car, if you call it that, is price much lower than one would expect and looks to offer just about everything needed in a budget minded commuter vehicle … including great fuel economy – 84mpg. Sure I’d prefer a diiesel or hybrid, but then that would add to the cost and complexity. This new all-American company could be the next Tesla, although I wonder if their business model with current promoted pricing, reminiscent of the Yugo of the 1980s, will be profitable? Personally I expect that the price will be higher when the vehicle is finally available.

That said, I’m “in” with this little 3-wheel commuter and really want to see them do well. Get your pre-order reservation in before September 1, 2014.

Category: Automotive, Business, Financial | No Comments »
Tags: cars, elio, tesla, vehicle, yugo

Posted By RichC on July 26, 2014

It is pretty easy to be cynical as a squeezed taxpayer seeing the waste and excess by those who manage public money. I regularly deride the inefficiencies in publically funded programs … particularly those highlighted in the news. (ie. VA, IRS, quirky grants and crony project contracts like Solyndra or “the bridge to nowhere” – I could go on forever!) I actually had a discussion on “squeezed taxpapers” this week with my dad about my brother retiring from WPAFB as a  federal civilian worker at age 52 and wondered just how much longer the Average Joe/Jane will support the current benefit packages?  Currently it seems if public employees have significantly better retirement options than those who also pay taxes and will be working well beyond the accepted retirement age … some may never feel they can retire?  I have no ill feelings for those who are enjoying early, mid and late 50s retirement with an actual pension (what’s that? – sarcasm) and fully paid healthcare insurance … reminiscent of plans that existed before implementation of the Affordable Care Act – Obamacare … but does this model really work long term? I’m not sure it can since our nation is nearly $18 Trillion in debt and has fewer private sector citizens with pensions and company paid health insurance … let alone the option to receive it in their 50s.

Whoa … did I go off track! Back to my point of “praise” for teachers.

Both of my children were fortunate have an excellent public school education. Well I say “fortunate,” but really it says something about the choices we parents make as well. We “chose” the community we live in based on the school districts reputation. In fact, it may have been the primary consideration when we moved here. We also took an interest in how our schools were managed and tried to stay involved with our kids education … sort of a working partnership with their teachers. If any of the above is missing, don’t expect a positive outcome. Still there are differences in teachers. Some treat it as a paycheck while others see it as a “calling” or at least a profession. My praise is for two of the many “public school teacher” that were part of my children’s education. 

For my daughter it was her Lakota East High School Physics teacher, Sandee Coats-Haan, who besides being an excellent teacher, went beyond in her off time to suggest and write a letter of recommendation that awarded Katelyn a summer internship in the NASA Sharp program out in New Mexico. What an excellent growth experience as well as something that enhanced her college résumé.

For my son, that special teacher was John Severns who besides being an excellent science teacher, decided not to pick a top student to be his teaching assistant. Instead, he gave the extra classroom time and job of teacher’s pet assistant (smile) to Taylor which kept him focused on a a subject that was challenging for him. Taylor worked a bit harder in that class so as not to disappoint Mr. Severns  and was an experience that prevented him from giving up in science. This past week, 6 years after graduation from both high school and college and now gainfully employed, Taylor reconnected with Mr. Severns, and his son, who were traveling through Williston, North Dakota on vacation. I sure was nice that they took time and stopped for a visit. It likely was rewarding for both.

I doubt many teachers realize it at the time, but their extra effort can impact students in profound way. I’m glad “some of them” put in the extra effort.  Parents –  pick your community wisely, elect a passionate school board and make sure you give your local schools what they need in order to hire and retain the best teachers (of course with unions this opens up an entirely different discussion — another day). 

While I’m at it, t is probably a good place for me to remember a couple teachers in my life too … Mrs. Hopkins (6th grade) and Dana Stahlman (High School); I don’t think either knew how they impacted me, but thanks … AND thanks to all those teachers who strive to be like Sandee and John.

Category: Education, Personal | 1 Comment »
Tags: katelyn, lakota, ohio, school, taylor, west chester

Posted By RichC on July 25, 2014

Did you know that in July of 2012 that the earth was nearly hit by a CME (video)? According to the Nation Academy of Sciences, the cost of a large CME similar to the July 20, 2012 “storm” could cost $2 Trillion.

On July 23, 2012, the sun unleashed two massive clouds of plasma that barely missed a catastrophic encounter with the Earth’s atmosphere.  These plasma clouds, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), comprised a solar storm thought to be the most powerful in at least 150 years.

“If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces,” physicist Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado tells NASA.

More at the WashingtonPost

Category: Environment, Space, Weather | No Comments »
Tags: disaster, science, space, sun

Posted By RichC on July 24, 2014

A miscellaneous filler video that I found interesting both for the silencer on a shotgun (haven’t seen that before) and the slow motion.

Category: Sports, Video | No Comments »
Tags: shooting, shotgun, silencer

Posted By RichC on July 23, 2014

Last weekend while traveling in North Dakota, we ran into the smoke from the many boreal forest fires burning in the Northwest Territories in Canada on Sunday. At first I wasn’t sure why the normally crisp clear skies were so hazy, but then Taylor told us about the smoke blowing south from the 156 currently burning forest fires in Canada. According to the ClimateCentral blog, one of the fires stretch over 250,000 acres (see photo from that Birch Creek Fire below and smoke over Alberta, Canada at the left). Boreal forest (or Taiga – new word for me) burning is common each year, but this year the number of fires is “six times greater than the 25-year average to date” according to Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center.

An aerial view of the Birch Creek Fire complex, which seared 250,000 acres as of Wednesday.  Credit: NWTFire/Facebook

Fires in NW Territories in Line with ‘Unprecedented’ Burn

For the past few weeks, dry and warm weather have fueled large forest fires across Canada’s remote Northwest Territories. The extent of those fires is well above average for the year to-date, and is in line with climate trends of more fires burning in the northern reaches of the globe.

… See more from this post by Brian Kahn

Category: Environment, Travel, Weather | No Comments »
Tags: boreal forest, canada, climate, fires, north dakota, smoke

Posted By RichC on July 22, 2014

After my recent visit to North Dakota and the oil fields … AND seeing what has happened in one short year, I talked with my son ways of trying to invest in this oil boom (the “invest in what you know” philosophy). Of course I tried to look at what he sees from a “planners” perspective, but the more I looked for ideas, it sort of felt like I was late to the game. The Bakken boom is far from over when it comes to oil, but it is more challenging to find right way to invest in this American boom. Currently the players are companies like Continental Resources ($CLR), Kodiak Oil and Gas ($KOG) or Whiting Petroleum ($WLL) — the last two will become one. I also discussed the safer (?) Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway play ($BRK.B) since so much of the 1 million barrels of oil per day (new record for North Dakota) are moved on the expanding Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railways.

Then there’s the real estate angle where single bedroom apartments rent for over $2000 per month and even modular homes sell for $250,000. You’d be hard pressed to find a nice “small” city lot home for $300,000 in Williston. I even saw in-town older homes on a postage stamp listed for nearly a half million dollars! Maybe real estate?

On the other hand, a hands-off North Dakota Master Limited Partnership with “decent” management might be the way to invest … although I suspect in this “wild west” big money boom one could get bitten?

As an investor, I’ve owned a few shares of $KMP for a couple years (one of the largest pipeline MLPs), but for the most part this is more of an income stream than a speculative high growth company.  Still, with one of the few favorable tax treatment investments available to the ordinary investor and there aren’t many other industries able save on corporate taxes low and pass the income to shareholders (except Inversions). From my reading, this special MLP structure came from the 1986 tax code which was purposed to explore, develop, mine, produce, process, refine, transport and market minerals and resources here in the U.S. Not many industries receive this generous tax structure … which offers the ability for the organization to send more of its profit to shareholders rather than the IRS.  Over the years, this so-called “loophole” has enable the Master Limited Partnership to pass revenue through to investors of American energy who receive dividend checks somewhat larger than companies who pay high U.S. corporate taxes. This might be particularly helpful for those saving outside a tax sheltered IRAs and 401Ks or attempting to supplement income with a quarterly check. It’s obviously attractive in today’s low interest environment where neither bonds or cd can meet investment targets. If oil remain “in demand” and trades consistently around $100/barrel, a well managed MLP should be able to return a conservative 7% for years to come.

We saw several names up in Williams County … so I’m researching a few of them including Enbridge Energy Partners $EEP and their North Dakota connections.

Category: Business, Energy, Financial | 1 Comment »
Tags: bakken, investing, mlp, north dakota, oil, stocks, trading

Posted By RichC on July 21, 2014

Time moves forward and it is always noticeable when the steady stream of celebrities and notable figures retire from public life or succumb to illness or age. One such favorite of mine was James Garner, an actor I enjoyed while growing up, died in his home at age 86 this past weekend. His role as Jim Rockford was a favorite … as mentioned before.

Actor James Garner, whose wise-cracking but affable character made hits out of the TV shows Maverick and The Rockford Files, has died. He was 86.

Los Angeles Police confirm that Garner was found dead of natural causes at his home in Brentwood on Saturday.

Garner had a long career and remained active as a TV and film actor well into his 70s. His style as a leading man who was quicker with his tongue than his fist was established early as gambler Bret Maverick in the 1950s TV Western Maverick, as The Associated Press notes:

"His quick-witted avoidance of conflict provided a refreshingly new take on the American hero, contrasting with the steely heroics of John Wayne and the fast trigger of Clint Eastwood.

"At a time when the networks were crowded with hard-eyed, traditional Western heroes, Bret Maverick provided a fresh breath of air. With his sardonic tone and his eagerness to talk his way out of a squabble rather than pull out his six-shooter, the con-artist Westerner seemed to scoff at the genre’s values."

Garner carried that smooth-talking charisma into the private eye business in the ’70s TV show The Rockford Files, for which he won an Emmy. Among his work on the big screen are roles in The Great Escape, Victor Victoria, Space Cowboys and The Notebook. He was nominated for an Oscar for the 1985 film Murphy’s Romance, which co-starred Sally Field.

Garner’s childhood in Oklahoma was marked by the early death of his mother and the scattering of his brothers. His father reunited the family, People reports, bringing an abusive stepmother into an already dysfunctional relationship:

" ‘My dad worked hard as an upholsterer and carpet layer,’ said Garner, ‘but he was a rake and he drank a lot. He’d come home bombed and make us sing to him or get a whipping.’

"From that experience, Garner developed a lifelong sympathy for the underdog. ‘I cannot stand to see little people picked on by big people,’ he said. ‘If a director starts abusing people, I’ll just jump in.’ "

Garner received a Screen Actors Guild Life Achievement Award in 2005. Back in his hometown of Norman, Okla., stands a 10-foot bronze statue of Garner as Bret Maverick.

NPR

Category: Audio, Movies, Music, Obituary | No Comments »
Tags: hollywood, james garner, Music, Obituary, rockford, television

Posted By RichC on July 20, 2014

After our visit with Katelyn and Drew in Minneapolis ( 7/18 & 7/19), we flew up to Williston, North Dakota to see Taylor. Flight and weather were great and after dinner our first night we stopped at Taylor’s Williams County Zoning and Planning office (below) and took an evening hike along the levy east of town (above). Great view and enjoyable conversation. We do miss being closer.

On Saturday we roamed a bit further and he gave us a taste of what his “site visits” are like in a few areas being developed in the county. Beautiful area … even with the many, many oil rigs and wells peppering the prairies and farm fields.

For Saturday dinner we took Taylor and one of his friends (also “Taylor”) out to a nice local steakhouse called the Williston Brewing Co. Great food and taxidermy.

On Sunday we headed to the next town with “shopping” options, Minot, ND, and picked up a few items for Taylor (called it an early Christmas) and enjoyed a lunch at Olive Garden (chains restaurants are somewhat a luxury for those living a distance from a larger city).

For those of you connected with me by Facebook, I’ve added a few more personal family photos and video.

Category: Archive, Personal, Photos, Travel | No Comments »
Tags: brenda, family, oil, rich, taylor, vacation, williston

Posted By RichC on July 19, 2014

Katelyn forwarded a few of her photos from our visit to Minneapolis. We really did have a great time visiting and KNOW that they will “enjoy” at least the next three years while in Minnesota for Drew’s hematology fellowship; at this point I can see them staying far longer … but then again, it’s not winter!

 
Ice cream with Justin, Maddy and Evan at Lake Harriet near their house.

Category: Archive, Personal, Photos, Travel | No Comments »
Tags: brenda, drew, family, justin, katelyn, minneapolis, rich