My Desultory Blog

Posted By RichC on October 25, 2024

Nobody really knows when the next recession will come, but economists and those of us who monitor investments would really like to know before it arrives.

This week while moving a few more dollars to the sideline, at least until after the November 2024 election and until mid-January 2025 (parked in a 3-month CD) … I decided to see what Perplexity.AI has to say about predicting recessions and buying US Treasuries if the Fed’s soft landing doesn’t happen. 

Deciding when to buy Treasuries and identifying when a recession is near can be challenging, but there are several indicators and strategies to consider:

Identifying a Potential Recession

Economic Indicators

• Watch the Leading Economic Index (LEI): A sustained drop below zero in the Conference Board’s US Leading Indicator Index is a strong signal of an impending recession.
• Monitor yield curve inversions: An inverted yield curve has historically been one of the most reliable recession indicators.
• Track GDP growth, unemployment rates, and consumer spending: Declines in these areas can signal economic weakness.

Market Behavior

• Observe stock market trends: While not always accurate, significant market declines can sometimes precede recessions.
• Monitor corporate earnings: Widespread earnings declines across sectors may indicate economic trouble.

Timing Treasury Purchases

Interest Rate Cycles

• Interest rates tend to peak about three months before a recession starts.
• Treasury performance typically bottoms around three months before a recession and peaks about five months into it.

Market Sentiment

• Increased demand for “safe haven” assets often signals economic uncertainty.
• When investors become risk-averse, they tend to flock to Treasuries, driving up prices and lowering yields.

Federal Reserve Policy

• Pay attention to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Rate cuts often precede or coincide with recessions, making Treasuries more attractive.

Strategies for Treasury Investments

• Dollar-Cost Averaging: Instead of trying to time the market perfectly, consider regularly investing in Treasuries over time5.
• Laddering: Build a portfolio of Treasuries with staggered maturities to balance yield and flexibility.
• Diversification: Use Treasuries as part of a broader, diversified portfolio strategy to manage risk.
• Long-Term Perspective: Remember that Treasuries can play a valuable role in portfolio stability, regardless of short-term economic conditions.

It’s important to note that perfectly timing the market or a recession is extremely difficult, even for professional investors. A well-diversified portfolio that aligns with your long-term financial goals is often the best approach, regardless of economic conditions

Category: AI, Financial, Technology | No Comments »
Tags: artificial intelligence, federal reserve, perplexity.ai, recession, tech friday, techfriday, treasuries

Posted By RichC on October 24, 2024

It has been a long time since I remembered when stopping quick required a second foot on the brake pedal, but this photo from a 1964 (Camaro I think) reminded me of that wider pedal (think the 1973 Caddy had the two-foot pedal too?)

Back when yours truly was learning to drive, our family 4-door 1967 Ford Custom 500 came with manual drum brakes. There were times as a teenage “want to drive faster” new driver that I remember using heavy two-footed pressure to stop this boat-ish couple tons of steel with a stock 289 cu in Windsor V8 (the first engine I rebuilt). This was our second car (MomC’s daily driver) and the one I learned to drive using and the one I took my driving test in.

It was also my grandparents car before they passed away in 1969 and 1970 and the car we used to tow our Yellowstone camping trailer and Fiberpile sailboat. 

Category: Automotive, Memories, Photos, TBT | No Comments »
Tags: brake pedal, ford custom 500

Posted By RichC on October 23, 2024

My daughter Katelyn forwarded me this impressive fireball image and earthsky.org article with a YouTube video captured by people from Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and even Western NY (she hinted that it was “blogworthy” … so what is a dad to do? Share it, obviously). 🙂

The meteor (??) was clearly seen streaking over Lake Erie from West to East in the evening sky on October 21, 2024. Here’s a snippet from the article that adds a bit more information:

There’s a reason that fireballs are visible from such a large area. That is, they appear at a high altitude of 50 miles (80 km). The Taurid meteor shower is currently active and above the horizon at that time of night. But this fireball was moving in a direction opposite the Taurids. So this event was most likely a random meteor, not associated with any known meteor shower.

LINK

Category: News, Space, Video | No Comments »
Tags: astronomy, earthsky.org, fireball, meteors, space, youtube

Posted By RichC on October 22, 2024

Brenda and I have been working hard to walk the beach while on our annual October vacation to Florida. This year the ocean weather has been windy, a bit rainy … but warm. We’ve found the longer than usual walk challenging as the waves and tide has shrunk the beach and churned the water. We’ve seen sea-foam before, but never really gave it much thought. I sort of remembered that it was associated with pollution run-off that we humans create … but not entirely … some of it is natural.

Sea water is 96.5 percent water and 2.5 percent salt. That only adds up to 99 percent, so what’s the other 1 percent? A lot of things. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), it’s “proteins, fats, dead algae, detergents, and other pollutants,” plus other bits of inorganic and organic material. When these particles get agitated by wind and waves, they froth. You can create the same effect by shaking ocean water vigorously in a bottle.

The sea foam bubbles happen because of molecules called surfactants, which Popular Science explains are “sticky molecules that cling to the surface between water and air.” This sea surface microlayer can come from natural sources, like algae and seaweed, or from human pollution, like fertilizers, detergents and sewage. Ew.

One end of the molecule is hydrophobic – it repels water. The other end is hydrophilic – it attracts water. The easiest shape for these molecules to form is a sphere, with the hydrophobic ends on the inside and the hydrophilic ends pointing outward. Spheres (even if they aren’t perfect) make bubbles. And a lot of bubbles make sea foam!

LINK

Category: Environment, Nature, Photos, Science | No Comments »
Tags: beach, delray beach, florida, howstuffworks, ocean, popular science, sea foam

Posted By RichC on October 21, 2024

After late last month’s Music Monday song from Simon and Garfunkel, it was difficult not to include the Side-A song at some point … and better sooner than too much later.

“Cecilia” was first recorded by Paul Simon and Art Garfunkel for their 1970 album Bridge Over Troubled Water. It reached #4 in the US charts as a single.
   

The “Cecilia” of the title is generally interpreted as being a capricious lover, causing both anguish and jubilation to the singer. However, another interpretation is that Cecilia might refer to St. Cecilia, patron saint of music in the Catholic tradition, and thus the song might refer to the frustration of fleeting inspiration in songwriting. St. Cecilia is mentioned in another Paul Simon song, “The Coast” (from his 1990 album The Rhythm of the Saints): “A family of musicians took shelter for the night in the little harbor church of St. Cecilia.”

Category: Music | No Comments »
Tags: art garfunkel, cecilia, music monday, musicmonday, paul simon, simon and garfunkel, trivia, wikipedia, youtube

Posted By RichC on October 20, 2024

There is probably a better way to archive tips and articles from online magazines these days (it was easier when I just cut it out of the monthly paper magazine), but until then, saving snippets and tidbits to my blog is what I’ll do, even though I have a few ideas saved in my MacBook Air‘s Notes app.

From a recent woodworking magazine issue, here are a couple ideas I wanted to save and try the next time I’m duplicating parts or using dowels (although do have a dowel centering clam — never does seem perfect though?):

1. A template tracking jig for rough cutting and duplicating parts
2. How one long time woodworker uses his drill press and doweling centers with a chamfer to line up joints. 

Category: Archive, Tidbits, Woodworking | No Comments »
Tags: bandsaw, dowels, snippets, template, woodworking, workshop

Posted By RichC on October 19, 2024

It is difficult to escape the political ads, commentary and “web of lies” that continue to be spun by candidates and political action committees. I know that I’m not alone in wanting it to “just be over.”  I’ve told friends and family that they should just ignore everything that is posted on the Internet and said on TV … as the truth is impossible to decipher … and likely even more difficult when the races and issues are state and local.

I read a post by a head of an investment advisor group that I thought was worth sharing as it does sum up how I felt about this year’s presidential race. Thanks … and well said, David Bahnsen!

This entire election season has essentially been a challenge of two sides that act like they do not want to win. Obviously they would never say that, and of course I know it isn’t intentional. But my point is not about intentions. It is about the actuality.

For Republicans, a simple “do you have anyone who didn’t deny they lost the election in 2020, who understands issues and is competent and principled, that could run?” would have been a good place to start. Not one, and not two, and not three, but a minimum of four Republican Governors could have done that. DeSantis. Kemp. Abbott. Youngkin. Some more electable than others but all brutally proficient, principled, competent, Presidential. And anyone would be COASTING to victory right now. Coasting. The contemptible left wing media would, no doubt, be trying to demonize them, too, but at least it would be 100% untrue, instead of only 50% untrue. We’d be paying more attention to the WNBA than the Presidential race with a GOP Governor candidate who was basically a stand-in for some form of Reaganite classical conservatism. But no. We had to double down on a personality candidacy, one rooted in the deepest insecurities I have ever seen in public life, ever. One disconnected from ideology, principle, character, and sense. Sure, some good policies (a few bad ones, too). But in no sane world is Trump the man anyone feels would be the most qualified from this party to be President. Again, like they don’t want it.

So for Democracts, they can’t fumble this away, right? I mean, they beat a guy (barely) four years ago, and THEN he threw a hideous national temper tantrum that resulted in Jan 6, saw a disastrous midterms for Republicans, and has done all he can to alienate independent and moderate voters over and over again. What could they do to lose this one? I know. How about double down on men playing women in women’s sports. Refuse to walk away from the ABSOLUTE CULTURAL INSANITY of the last few years. Nominate someone who can barely get a sentence out without sending like a C-student who has never read a book. Nominate someone who has boldly, loudly, unequivocally advocated for the most radical positions in American public life for years (green new deal, Medicare for all, open borders, massive benefits to illegal immigrants, gender transition surgery for felons, etc.). All they had to do was be normal. All they had to do was not double down on crazy. They couldn’t do it.

Someone does have to win this in the end. It just isn’t going to be a party that acted like they wanted to. It’s going to be an accident – an accidental winner in a country that increasingly acts like it wants to lose, with both parties to blame.

Category: Politics, Social Media | No Comments »
Tags: david bahnsen, election, harris, trump, voting

Posted By RichC on October 18, 2024

Photo is from the internet — not mine. ☹️

(more…)

Category: Photography, Photos, Social Media, Travel, Volkswagen | No Comments »
Tags: alaska, beautiful, camper, condo1718, florida, sunset, Travel, vacation, van, volkswagen

Posted By RichC on October 17, 2024

It has been 15 years since we planted the Dawn Redwood tree in our backyard (tree to the right in above photo) and it is still growing strong. I’m starting to think we may have picked a spot a little to close to the pool, although it is still 40 feet away. A year later in 2010, we added a Bald Cypress which has been a beautiful tree … although both do shed some very fine conifer “lacy needles.”

So for this first Throwback Thursday #TBT of October 2024, check out the “when planted” (photo left below) vs a 2024 photo of the same Redwood tree (below right).

Also, the new photos were also an excuse to test the new iPhone 16 Pro Max camera … so click for larger photos.

Category: Cellphone, Nature, Photography, Photos, TBT | No Comments »
Tags: backyard, bald cypress, camera, dawn redwood, iphone 16 pro max, landscape, TBT, trees

Posted By RichC on October 16, 2024

Two years ago I read Peter Zeihan’s book,  “The End Of The World Is Just The Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization,” on my friend Jeff’s recommendation. We discussed a few thoughts over lunch (as usual) … but instead of a Kindle book for an upcoming trip, I opted to buy the used paperback book, “Accidental Super Power 10 Years On.” 

He’s already read it since Peter Zeihan’s thinking parallels his views in seeing the US in decline … and frankly in moral decay. As much as I want to deny the negative mindset, I  can’t help but wonder if our country has lost its way?

I’m sad to be thinking that this once “shining city on the hill” isn’t shining as bright as it once did … or is on the verge of disappering as did other nations experimenting with democracy.
 

Category: Books, Travel | No Comments »
Tags: accidental super power, discussion, jeffp, peter zeihan, reading, used book