Posted By RichC on July 12, 2018
While adding a photo to a post about Katelyn, Drew and Annalyn on Put In Bay earlier this week, I had a few more from our pre-kid days that might make for a good Throwback Thursday #TBT post. So here are a couple more sailing on Lake Erie from 1985 aboard Brenich our Baba 30.
A couple are from the north cove on Kelley’s Island, a couple from Put In Bay and a few more below sailing to and from.
Posted By RichC on July 11, 2018
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Posted By RichC on July 10, 2018
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Posted By RichC on July 9, 2018
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Posted By RichC on July 8, 2018
As the current bull stock market gets long in the tooth (average is 7 years, we’re now closing in on 9 years), financial analysts are beginning to write regularly about preparing for the next slowdown. Few are declaring it over at this moment, but most advise prudence as it comes to what investments are being held.
A couple articles I’ve been looking at point to the #TariffTiff (I like that term) that seems to be part of President Trump’s negotiation with U.S. trading partner countries as leverage. Depending on your point of view (pro or anti-Trump), you either think he is using tariffs to gain leverage or is foolishly willing to see things escalate into a #TradeWar believing the U.S. ends up winning — personally just as with any war, there will be casualties on both sides. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail and the U.S. will just end up with "fairer" trade deals in the end?
Back to predicting the end of the bull market. Barron’s in their June 30, 2018 article points out that "the economy has been juiced by the tax cuts and fiscal-spending package that Congress passed at the end of 2017—a stimulus that should last another year or so." As interest rates rise and the Fed shrinks its $4 Trillion dollar balance sheet, the economy will no longer have the stimulus. "Put them together and you have a drag big enough to slow the economy, while stamping a bright expiration date on the bull market: 2020."
And it isn’t just permabears who are gloomy of late. Ben Bernanke, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, recently said that after two years of stimulus, “in 2020, Wile E. Coyote is going to go off the cliff and is going to look down.”
Even less-pessimistic economists and market watchers acknowledge that economic expansion will slow in 2020, while corporate profits, though still increasing, will do so at a slower pace than they had previously. Global economic growth could also feel the pinch if the European Central Bank begins raising interest rates toward the end of 2019, as it has suggested it might. These conditions are far different than what has existed in the bull market.
Much of the talk in economic circles is in regard to an accurate "predictor" of bear market — that being an inverted yield curve. We are not there yet, but the convergence of short term and long term treasuries has moved much closer. Barron’s gave a good explanation:
In good times, the longer-term yield should be higher than the shorter because it means a bank can borrow at the lower short-term rate and make money lending at the higher longer-term one. When short-term yields rise above long-term ones, there’s no incentive to lend, and that “inverted yield curve” has typically preceded a recession by six to 24 months.
So … now that we know the end is closer than it was and that we are currently in a #tradetiff, how do we prepare for the inevitable slowing of the economy … if not a steep market drop leading us into a recession? Traditionally investors shifted to bonds for safety along with precious metals. Neither seems to be attractive at the moment, even if adding them steadily to a portfolio might be wise. CNBC published a article recommending U.S. based utilities or sector ETFs like $XLU. The thinking is that steady dividend income and protection from a #TradeWar could be had with utilities. Another recommendation would be the traditional defensive stocks that are domestic and consumer oriented — I’ve been adding $PG and $CVS, but am concerned their exposure worldwide could be a negative?
The best advice is to at least start thinking that the party will end and invest new money with caution. Perhaps consider CALL options as a way to at least protect stocks you aren’t quite ready to sell (just my thoughts)?
Posted By RichC on July 7, 2018
When this is our Butler County sheriff on the 4th of July …
… I know that I am living in the correct Ohio county! 
Posted By RichC on July 6, 2018
It is never fun playing plan games with wireless carriers, especially if you have been 100% satisfied with everything "as is." After switching to VirginMobileUSA last year due to a SUPER promotion, I could not be happier with Virgin’s special price and service … but all good things seem to come to an end.
This month the 8 cents per month promo ends and the full priced InnerCircle plan of $60 for my phone (with 10GB mobile hotspot) and $50 for Brenda’s phone kicks in … and so the shopping began. We could probably switch back to Ting, which was just fine, but required us 
to monitor our use or end up paying for the next tier service (although we always had a fair bill and would highly recommend them for light users of data, etc).
Option 2 was to take advantage of the 55+ AAA promotion with Sprint; two line (BYOD) and unlimited service with a year of Classic AAA paid by Sprint. Nice! BUT … after several phone calls and a trip to the Sprint Store I remembered why I hated dealing with Sprint. The absolute worse customer service and stupidity. Their first answer was that you can’t switch to the Sprint plan because your phones are on Sprint — Virgin uses Sprint towers. Their second answer was that I could buy a new device and get a new number – nope, dumb idea. Third, switch to a non-Sprint carrier then switch the phones back again and "port" my number back to Sprint. Huh? Fourth was "maybe" they could "migrate" our numbers rather than "port" them, but the three different reps were unsure it would work and didn’t know who could confirm I would not lose our phone numbers. 
Brilliant … #sarcasm! 
Thankfully another phone call to retrieve my unpublished account number from Virgin in order to switch to Ting gave us ONE more option. Virgin must be losing enough customers that they offered a better plan with have as much "hot spot data" – 5GB vs 10GB; I can live with it. To make the plan even sweeter, if I auto-pay with a credit card, they will discount each line another $5 per month … bringing our TWO lines of unlimited talk/text/data wireless service with hotspot to $60 plus taxes (that’s fair). After the waste of time both in the Sprint store and on the phone I was thrilled to not have to change carriers and save money and feel the effort was worth it. Thank you VirginMobileUSA … I’m happy to stay with you.
Posted By RichC on July 5, 2018
Although Mt Wilber in Glacier National Park is beautiful (photo left, what a trip!), there is also something to be said for another beautiful thing … the signs behind President Trump at his Great Falls, Montana rally.
Like the POTUS or hate him, he seems to be the rare politician working diligently to fulfill many of the promises that he made to the American people when he was running for office. As the banners stated in Thursday night’s rally:
Promises Made, Promises Kept
Refreshing … even if you are not a fan of the heated rhetoric, boastful claims, juvenile name-calling or just disagree with his politics and the direction he is taking the country.
Posted By RichC on July 5, 2018
Well finishing the kitchen upgrade at the condo was my goal, but since Brenda was with me, more than the condo kitchen was worked on! The guest bathroom’s minor vanity update grew into a MUCH larger project. One thing lead to another and before I knew it, my wife had me doing more tile than the kitchen backsplash (what I had planned!)
So now, the kitchen is finished (almost) but the bathroom a mess of ungrouted tile, missing vanity and toilet and a debate over a shower door that nearly lead to one of us walking out! She wants a very expensive heavy roller door requiring a Hulk to lift, special order and extra support since the heavy glass "hangs" from a rod. I would have preferred spending fewer dollars and installing a medium weight/thickness door that was instock at a Home Depot or Lowes. I’m still not sure I "alone" can install such a heavy door? Suffice to say, we stopped talking about it and I at least did the support so "if we go that way" it can be installed — maybe by an installer???
Posted By RichC on July 4, 2018
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