The Quants Run Wall Street Now – @WSJ
Posted By RichC on May 21, 2017
Matched content ads by Google Adsense
Posted By RichC on May 21, 2017
For those of you who are regular visitors to MyDesultoryBlog and are not running an ad blocker plugin on your browser, you may have noticed a small snippet of new ad content in the sidebar. Last month, GoogleAdsense offered an upgrade to this blog’s minimal advertising experiment. 
The new ad content promotes “matched” internal content from similar previous posts their algorithms pick … with 6000 to choose from, it would be interesting to know how “it” decides?
🙃
The new small ad box is not a “pay per click” unit like most online marketing linked ads, but is used as a way to keep a viewer on a site longer. The longer visitors read and view, the more “other” marketing attempts can be put in front of potential customers. According to their research, the “number of pages viewed increased by 9% on average” and the “time spent on site increased by 10%.” Obviously my personal journal style blog is not the ideal place for ads, but it is still surprising to review just how Google is building their marketing powerhouse.
If you are thinking about “matched content ads for your site and if it is right for your site, there are a few limitations:
Matched content is available for sites with multiple pages and high volumes of traffic. Have a look at the site management settings in your AdSense account to see if your site(s) is eligible to run Matched content. Make the most out of your Matched content units with these best practices:
- Let Google help you find the right size by using responsive Matched content units.
- Place your Matched content unit directly below the article and either above or below your ad unit
- Consider using Matched content on long scrolling pages
The economy: 5 Lessons From 1Q 2017 – Jim Glassman
Posted By RichC on May 20, 2017
Every once in a while comes an “it’s a small world“ surprise and one wonders, “why didn’t I know this?” This past week, my sister-in-law sent me a link to an article from her husband Dan Glassman’s brother Jim. The link was to Jim’s Linkedin page and opined on the economy. I figured … we are all amateur economists and doodle our opinions on blogs and social networks since everybody has access the Internet and self-publishing platforms nowadays — I figured I would check it out later.
After finally reading, I found out Dan’s brother is Jim Glassman of JPMorganChase and his opinion as “head economist” is actually a bit more respected than those of us who run around bloviating on the subject; he actually gets paid for his opinion! Obviously a few “higher on the finance education chain” (JPMorganChase) think so too and have found his thoughts worthy of their attention.
Click above image for larger and to read Jim Glassman’s bio
After noting this, I read his latest article on “5 Lessons From the 1Q 2017” with a bit more interest and even search back to read a few more articles … and watched his presentations and TV interviews. Very impressive credentials and worthwhile thoughts. Thanks for sharing, Lynda!
Coming out of the first quarter, the focus may have been on GDP figures, but there are plenty of other lessons to learn from the first three months of 2017, including these five key takeaways.
The primary news coming out of the first quarter was the disappointing GDP figure, signaling US economic expansion slowed to a 0.7 percent annualized rate over the first three months. As discussed in last week’s article, there are broader measures that should also be considered when evaluating the economy’s health. This week, we focus on five key lessons coming out of 1Q.
1. We’re Not “Due” for a Recession
The recovery is wrapping up its eighth year, placing the current period of economic expansion among the longest on record. Fortunately, the business cycle doesn’t run on a calendar, and recessionary risks should remain low until the Federal Reserve fully normalizes interest rates.
Despite having taken the first steps toward normalization, the current monetary posture remains quite accommodative. Not only are short-term rates still at historically low levels, but the lingering effects of quantitative easing have also pushed long-term borrowing costs below their natural level. Artificially low borrowing costs should allow the economy to absorb imbalances that might otherwise lead to a recession.
2. Profit Slumps Don’t Tell the Full Story
Weak profits and falling corporate expenditures have often preceded recessions, but not every period of declining profitability has signaled a downturn. The decline in capital spending and corporate profits that accompanied the oil glut wasn’t a sign of weakness in the broader economy. While capital-intensive oil exploration projects were paused, consumers enjoyed the windfall from falling fuel prices. The resulting benefits from cheap oil are still materializing across the entire consumer sector, but the pain was immediately felt by energy companies and oil patch towns. However, the dislocations from falling oil prices will ultimately be overwhelmed by the benefits accompanying rising household wealth.
3. The Fed Focuses on the Big Picture
With the economy near full employment, the Fed is shifting its strategy toward prolonging the business cycle’s peak. After eight years of above-trend growth, the recovery’s health is no longer in doubt, and the Fed is likely to begin taking a more conceptual approach to interest rate normalization.
Over the coming year, monetary policy decisions will be guided by the long-term goal of withdrawing accommodation in a predictable fashion, even if that means being less responsive to the most recent economic data. Individual economic reports are always volatile, and the importance of monthly figures is likely to fade as the Fed’s focus shifts toward promoting long-term sustainable growth. Expect the Fed to stick to the plan, even in the face of temporary weakness.
4. Economic Activity Doesn’t Stop for Uncertainty
Political uncertainty has done little to slow the markets, as evidenced by the immediate aftermath of Brexit and Donald Trump’s surprise victory. While major legislation hasn’t yet been passed in 2017, equities investors appear to be encouraged about how the administration’s pro-business agenda could impact them in the future.
5. An Equation is No Substitute for Monetary Policy
Some of the Fed’s critics suggest that monetary policy should be governed by a set of fixed rules, eliminating the need for a committee of economists to set interest rates. But an equation linking rate hikes to developments in unemployment and inflation would’ve likely been counterproductive during the recovery.
It’s easy to find points in the recent past when a strict rule-based monetary policy would’ve led to missteps. For example, when the headline unemployment rate underestimated the true level of slack in the labor market, a rule would’ve likely prescribed monetary tightening prematurely, restricting job growth when it was still needed. Additionally, when collapsing oil prices skewed inflation downward, a rule-based reaction might’ve missed the underlying strength in demand and left rates too low for too long, risking an overheated economy. In retrospect, the Fed has done admirably at promoting the recovery, and it’s hard to imagine an equation could’ve capably substituted for experienced judgment.
—Jim Glassman, Head Economist, Commercial Banking May 10, 2017
Obviously some strong microbursts blasted SW Ohio?
Posted By RichC on May 19, 2017
It takes a bit of wind to blow a grill off the patio, but with the wild storm blasts rolling from the south and west the last couple of days, that is just what it did. (and I think the back wheels were locked!)
I picked up the pieces last night (but not on the patio) and the recycled grill is still functioning … although with a few more dents, twists and a torn cover. Perhaps it is time to rethink the location or the wheels. (caster cups?)
Tips on making Gmail easier to use by Joanna Stern, WSJ.com
Posted By RichC on May 18, 2017
Great tips from tech writer Joanna Stern of the Wall Street Journal on dealing with a few Gmail nits most of us using Google’s free services have. See her article at WSJ.com.
1. Priorities, Priorities
You may not know it, but Google’s email bots have not one but two ways of automatically organizing your messages: tabbed inbox and priority inbox.
Tabbed inbox—the default—filters those “A friend liked your post” or “BLOWOUT SALE!” emails into automatically created tabs marked Social and Promotions, respectively. If you want something in a different tab, drag it there, teaching the system where you want to see stuff from that sender.
(Gmail app tip: Cut down on needless notifications by specifying “Primary only” notifications in the app’s settings.)
Priority inbox organizes messages into tiers. It puts unread important emails at the top. Google determines those based on your habits, and marks them with small yellow flags. Below that are your starred emails, below that is everything else. You can enable priority inbox by tapping the gear-shaped icon then selecting Settings > Inbox > Inbox Type.
I wouldn’t dare tell you how to organize your inbox—it’s personal. I prefer threaded conversation view, where emails and replies are all grouped together. If that drives you nuts, you can switch it off in Settings. If you like to keep your inbox empty at all times, give Inbox a try. Google provides tools there to snooze and dismiss multiple messages.
2. Stars, Labels and Flags
Gmail has a tagging problem so pay attention: Use stars to mark emails you need to return to—you can even go multicolor in Settings. Use labels for projects or similar messages (show tickets, receipts, etc.). And use the yellow Important flags to train Google to highlight your most important correspondents (Aunt Bertha, naturally).
3. Find It Faster
Gmail’s search is fast—scrolling through search results isn’t. In the search box, click the down arrow for specific search filters. You can also type shortcuts into the search field (even in the mobile app). To find every email from me, type “from:joanna.stern@wsj.com”. Some standard Google search commands also apply: Add quotes if you want to search exact phrases, use the minus sign to eliminate results containing those words, etc.
4. Easy Writing
On the iPhone or on Android, you can set up keyboard shortcuts to speed up typing responses. You can also lean on Gmail’s Smart Reply. Starting Wednesday, an update to the Gmail apps will suggest quick replies to messages based on text from the previous message. It doesn’t read your mind but the short responses can be useful.
If you find yourself spending too much time writing the same emails or boilerplates over and over you can save them in Canned Responses, a tool from Gmail’s experimental “Labs.” Head to Settings > Labs > Enable Canned Responses > Save. Compose a new email with the text you want in it, click the down arrow in the bottom right corner of the window, select Canned responses, then New canned response… When you want that passage—an address, signature, whatever—again, you’ll find it in that same menu.
5. No Funky Formatting
The Gmail peeve that drives me most bonkers? When I copy text from Word or the web, then paste it into an email, it appears normal on my end. But the recipient sometimes sees text in different formats. Instead of using Ctrl + V, use Ctrl + Shift + V to strip out odd formatting. On your phone, you’ll need an app like Plain Text Paste. (Google says it’s working to improve this issue.)
Speaking of keyboard shortcuts, I am convinced you can save at least an hour a week by learning key Gmail shortcuts. Print the box below and tape it to your computer monitor. Thank me later.
6. Undo Send
We’ve all been there: You hit Send too quick and regret immediately sets in. Gmail gives you a few seconds to save yourself with its Undo Send feature. It’s automatically enabled in the iPhone app (and not available on the Android app). As soon as you hit Send, an Undo button appears for five seconds.
On the website, head to Settings and check Enable Undo Send. Choose the delay period—5, 10, 20, 30 seconds—then hit Save. After sending, an Undo button appears up top.
7. Panes, Not Pains
If you want a deeper Gmail fix—one that makes Gmail look more like Outlook—set up Preview Pane to show your inbox and message contents at the same time.
Go to Settings then click the Labs tab and enable Preview Pane. Scroll to the bottom and save. Activate Preview Pane view by clicking on the icon to the right of the message count.
While this, the most game-changing Gmail trick, is currently five clicks deep, Google says it plans to surface it soon. (Be careful: Many Gmail Labs features may not be ready for you. If you get into trouble, escape using this link.)
8. Stop Emailing
My best email tip of all: Look at how many lengthy threads in your inbox could’ve been replaced with texts, group chat or, dare I say, a phone call. At work, use Slack or Google Hangouts. With friends and family, pick your poison: standard texts, Apple iMessage, WhatsApp or Facebook Messenger.
Birthdays, baby Annalyn, mothers, grandmothers and LOVE
Posted By RichC on May 17, 2017
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New book: White Working Class by Joan C. Williams
Posted By RichC on May 16, 2017
The Kindle ebook reader is my preferred choice ever since getting my "own" ereader. My buddy Jeff has found a new way to entertain me … 
gifting Amazon books (this one for my birthday). I sense that he assumes everybody reads as much as he does? I assure you that I do not … but do start a lot of books … before getting bogged down and moving on to the next.
This week was a new release by Joan C. Williams that analyzes the cultural change from the wealthy old money Republicans of the past in contrast to the working class union Democrats who became this country’s middle class (I think she usually is focused on gender?). Her new book titled White Working Class – Overcoming Class Cluelessness, is timely in that the political types now clearly see a multiple decade change … particularly from the leadership and direction of Democratic Party. The non-traditional left has now clearly taken over to the point that not much room is provided for the "salt of the earth, traditional, hardworking, blue collar, patriotic" Democrats of yesteryear. There views are no longer tolerated by the academics and social issue driven progressives. Although I’ve just started the book, Williams is clearly painting the picture as to why many long term "working class" Democrats have turned to the Republican Party and in particular the hard driving and hard working President Donald Trump for representation in Washington DC. Clearly the Democratic leadership has turned their nose up at blue collar inclusiveness of the White Working Class base … and in particular it "male" component. Who knows if the GOP can represent them …that is yet to be seen … but better jobs and a paycheck would make for a grand start.
Around the world, populist movements are gaining traction among the white working class. Meanwhile, members of the professional elite―journalists, managers, and establishment politicians―are on the outside looking in, left to argue over the reasons. In White Working Class, Joan C. Williams, described as having “something approaching rock star status” by the New York Times, explains why so much of the elite’s analysis of the white working class is misguided, rooted in class cluelessness.
Williams explains that many people have conflated “working class” with “poor”―but the working class is, in fact, the elusive, purportedly disappearing middle class. They often resent the poor and the professionals alike. But they don’t resent the truly rich, nor are they particularly bothered by income inequality. Their dream is not to join the upper middle class, with its different culture, but to stay true to their own values in their own communities―just with more money. While white working-class motivations are often dismissed as racist or xenophobic, Williams shows that they have their own class consciousness.
White Working Class is a blunt, bracing narrative that sketches a nuanced portrait of millions of people who have proven to be a potent political force. For anyone stunned by the rise of populist, nationalist movements, wondering why so many would seemingly vote against their own economic interests, or simply feeling like a stranger in their own country, White Working Class will be a convincing primer on how to connect with a crucial set of workers―and voters.
Music Monday: License to Chill, Carolinas and reminiscing
Posted By RichC on May 15, 2017
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The Volkswagen TDI diesel scandal timeline and summary
Posted By RichC on May 14, 2017
My take after reading the informative Volkswagen Diesel Scandal timeline article published in the New York Times a couple months ago was that the stricter diesel engine emission standards imposed by the U.S. EPA forced Volkswagen in a corner. With the prospect of losing business, they opted to "cheat" in order to continue 
selling their very efficient TDI diesel cars in America.
For years I’ve shared my love for these superbly engineered VW TDIs and pointed out how much more efficient they are over similar gasoline powered internal combustion engine cars. Advocates of the TDI have long coveted the development of a hybrid version or better yet full electric with a smaller TDI diesel generating the power.
In a nutshell, the political bias and lobbying against "clean diesel" engines when it come to how the US measures pollutants drove engineers at Volkswagen to eventually cheat. They realized no matter how they modified VW’s newest small diesel engine (within cost and maintenance constraints) for their smallest passengers cars, they were not going to be able to meet stricter American emission standards and retain the performance expected by VW customers. Perhaps that is not an acceptable excuse, but when artificial standards are set beyond what is cost effective and possible at the time, decisions were made in order to continue to sell TDIs in American (personally I wish the emission standards would have been more realistic so small diesel engine improvements could continue to progress and compete. Instead, choice is limited and a competitive engine option gone).
Below is the timeline article presented by Jack Ewing in his informative article:
Engineering a Deception: What Led to Volkswagen’s Diesel Scandal – by: Jack Ewing – 03/16/2017
In September 2015, Volkswagen was accused of installing illegal software on cars to evade standards on diesel emissions.
Revelations of the deception led to the resignation of the company’s chief executive and have hit the company’s share price and profits.
Here is a timeline of how the scandal unfolded, according to a plea agreement by the carmaker in the United States and other court documents, as well as interviews with some of the participants.
The Planning
2006
Volkswagen wants to increase its embarrassingly low market share in the United States as part of a plan to become the biggest car company in the world. To do this, it resolves to use fuel-efficient diesel engines as a way to compete with Toyota. But engineers realize a newly developed diesel motor cannot meet stricter American emission standards.Nov. 2006
At a contentious meeting at company headquarters in Wolfsburg, Germany, executives decide to install illegal software that can detect when an emissions test is taking place and crank up pollution controls, according to two people who saw a PowerPoint presentation laying out details of the plan and spoke on condition of anonymity. The rest of the time the controls are throttled back to protect engine components from wear and tear.The Deception
Late 2008
Volkswagen begins a “clean diesel” marketing push in the United States, positioning its Golfs, Jettas, Beetles and other models as environmentally friendly alternatives to hybrids like the Toyota Prius.Late 2011
Volkswagen begins selling Passat sedans made at a new, $1 billion factory in Chattanooga, Tenn. Though the cars are equipped with more advanced emissions technology, Volkswagen later admits in court documents that it continued to use cheating software to reduce the amount of customer-level maintenance required.The Investigation
2013
A team from West Virginia University wins a $70,000 grant from the International Council on Clean Transportation to test whether diesel cars produce more emissions during normal driving than during laboratory tests. Road tests reveal that two Volkswagens in the study emit far more poisonous nitrogen oxides than allowed.May 2014
After publication of the West Virginia study, a Volkswagen product-troubleshooter warns top managers in a memo that regulators may investigate whether the carmaker has been deploying an illegal “defeat device.” The company confirms that the troubleshooter’s memo was passed on to Martin Winterkorn, then Volkswagen’s chief executive, but Volkswagen later says that he may not have read it.Spring 2014
The California Air Resources Board, or C.A.R.B., opens an inquiry into the excess Volkswagen emissions uncovered by the West Virginia study. Volkswagen executives and engineers try to cover up the illegal software by feeding the regulators false and misleading data, the company later admits in its plea agreement.Spring 2015
Volkswagen recalls diesel vehicles in the United States, telling regulators that a software update will fix the excess emissions. After tests show only a modest improvement, C.A.R.B. intensifies its inquiry.Aug. 2015
As regulators ramp up the pressure, Volkswagen employees destroy thousands of potentially incriminating documents, the carmaker admits in court documents.The Revelation
Sept. 3, 2015
Volkswagen confesses to the Environmental Protection Agency and C.A.R.B. that its diesel cars are equipped with defeat-device software that detects when emissions tests are taking place and cranks up pollution controls so that the cars will pass.Sept. 19, 2015
The public learns of the fraud after the E.P.A. gives Volkswagen a formal notice of violation.The Fallout
Sept. 23, 2015
Mr. Winterkorn resigns, but says he is not aware of any wrongdoing on his part. Volkswagen insists that the illegal software was the work of a small group of rogue engineers.June 2016
Volkswagen agrees to a $14.7 billion settlement in the United States to deal with civil complaints and consumer lawsuits. The settlement includes compensation to owners and measures to atone for the cheating, such as installing networks of electric car charging stations.Sept. 2016
A longtime Volkswagen engineer pleads guilty in the United States to conspiring to defraud regulators and car owners, the first criminal charges stemming from the American investigation into the automaker’s emissions deception.Jan. 2017
In a separate settlement with the United States Justice Department, Volkswagen agrees to plead guilty to conspiring to defraud the United States government and violate the Clean Air Act. The company will pay a $4.3 billion fine. The formal plea is submitted in March.United States prosecutors separately indict six former Volkswagen executives, including an engineer arrested at Miami International Airport.
Volkswagen agrees to pay a further $1.3 billion to owners of Audi, Porsche and Volkswagen vehicles with three-liter motors not covered by the earlier settlement. The settlement brings the total cost to Volkswagen of the scandal in the United States to more than $21 billion.
The auto components maker Robert Bosch agrees to pay $327.5 million to vehicle owners as compensation for its role in supplying the cheating software, but it does not concede wrongdoing.
German prosecutors say that 37 people are suspected of taking part in the fraud, including Mr. Winterkorn.
March 2017
German prosecutors raid offices of Audi, Volkswagen’s luxury car unit and a major profit center, in locations around Germany, escalating the investigation into the company’s wrongdoing in the United States.Matthias Müller, the Volkswagen chief executive, says at a news conference that the fraud was the work of lower-ranking employees and did not include any members of the current management board.
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Fearing future broken links, this was archived above from NYT published site — READ
Happy Birthday Katelyn – Happy Mother’s Day to a new mom too
Posted By RichC on May 14, 2017
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Desultory - des-uhl-tawr-ee, -tohr-ee
- lacking in consistency, constancy, or visible order, disconnected; fitful: desultory conversation.
- digressing from or unconnected with the main subject; random: a desultory remark.