RichC | December 18, 2024
The Federal Reserve is less sure about how much it’ll keep cutting rates after agreeing to a reduction this Wednesday afternoon. Chair Jerome Powell admitted that the decision was a close call (see WSJ and rate chart from 2000-2024 below). The latest cut, approved by 11 out of 12 Fed voters, will lower the Fed’s […]
RichC | October 25, 2024
Nobody really knows when the next recession will come, but economists and those of us who monitor investments would really like to know before it arrives. This week while moving a few more dollars to the sideline, at least until after the November 2024 election and until mid-January 2025 (parked in a 3-month CD) … I […]
RichC | September 18, 2024
Investors and traders on Wall Street started today in a pensive mood as all impatiently waited for the much telegraphed “first rate cut since 2020.” Market journalists debated if Chairman Powell and the Federal Reserve board members would see the slowing economy as a sign that their tightening polices had stifled inflation enough to managed […]
RichC | December 17, 2023
My buddy Jeff and I enjoy debating and learning from each other while sharing what we are reading. We are far from experts on anything (I should speak for myself), but that doesn’t stop us from opining. HA! Last week with the Federal Reserve “pausing” on interest rate hikes with inflation coming down and semi-telegraphed […]
RichC | June 8, 2023
If the answer is “not enough” … check out this short YouTube video explainer.
RichC | May 4, 2023
While waiting for the big TWO TRILLION dollar company that is Apple ($AAPL) to report earning after hours on Thursday (story), I’m contemplating the likely outcome of accelerated interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Obviously concluding that “inflation in transitory,” as the Fed Chair commented after the pandemic, was the incorrect assumption … and […]
RichC | April 12, 2023
Guess when this Fed news came out? High inflation and tight labor markets led Federal Reserve officials to signal they could raise interest rates at their next meeting despite a higher likelihood the economy would enter a recession later this year. Fed officials considered skipping a rate increase at their meeting last month but concluded […]
RichC | November 9, 2022
Skywatching and politics have little in common, unless one is stretching for a to put the two together in a morning after a November midterm election blog post. In the early Tuesday morning hours, before the election polls opened, the Blood “Red” Moon was being photographed and viewed by skywatchers — often referred to at […]
RichC | August 26, 2022
It was an ugly day on Wall Street as investors reacted to comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell who indicated “that the Federal Reserve must continue to raise rates” and “hold them at a higher level until they are confident inflation is under control.” Some economists highlighted in Barron’s Magazine last week, have suggested that […]
RichC | May 13, 2022
FoxBusiness/WSJ graphic For the good or bad, whenever I’m away from my daily routine, it seems like the financial markets lose stability and investors go into crisis mode? The past couple of weeks, those invested in stocks, bonds and crypto know that it has been painful; there have been very few refuges from the sharp […]
RichC | April 26, 2022
The financial markets have been following the Federal Reserves messaging regarding tightening their easy money policies and has been selling off the last few days. The more aggressive, but late stance to slow inflation is one needed piece of the puzzle … although also heights concerns over slow growth or even a recession. That news […]
RichC | April 23, 2022
As the Fed finally starts to deal with inflation, the market took note this month and seems to be selling off across the board. The expectation is that the economy will slow and as they say in the investing world, “don’t fight the Fed.” There isn’t a silver bullet that can keep businesses booming, paychecks […]
RichC | March 2, 2022
I’m not an expert on how the events in Ukraine will impact the world, but I do pay close attention to geopolitical events, the financial markets and the economy … and can’t help but wonder how this will reshape our future. For the past year or so I’ve been grumbling about how the Biden administration’s […]
RichC | February 12, 2022
Although this is really not a smooth continuation from yesterday’s “Inflation Hot” post, the financial and economic theme remains the same … so it will be considered “part 2.” The post left off with trying to stop inflation in the 1980s and forcing a recession, actually “back to back recessions.” We can all hope that […]
RichC | February 11, 2022
It is pretty obvious to most consumers that even with years of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates low, printing money and Congress spending, inflation remained in check at under 2%. Unfortunately after the last round of easy money policies during the pandemic, business shutdowns and government giving away money, this is no longer true. […]
RichC | January 3, 2022
Even with all the negativity around Covid19 and the rapidly spreading, but somewhat more tolerated, Omicron variant … investors chose to shrug off what looks to slow down the economic re-openings around the world. The saying I keep hearing is that “I’m done with it.” My view for the strong stock market start on the […]
RichC | October 16, 2021
A friend contemplating rolling over his 401K to an IRA asked me a bond investing question the other day as he would like to balance his portfolio of stocks by adding some bonds after the rollover. Since he has never owned a bond (outside of a managed fund), the question was, “what’s the impact of […]
RichC | June 23, 2021
Although I’m likely tainted in having lived through a period where inflation was real and uncontrolled, I do worry that people living today either ignore or downplay the negative impact inflation, stagflation or worse … hyperinflation … can make on our country. For those who know me, I’ve likely been the “boy who calls wolf” […]
RichC | March 18, 2021
Real estate has been on a tear in many markets as the coronavirus has people moving from cities to the suburbs and their own piece of land. In my opinion it is not just COVID19 related, but that fact that cities aren’t as secure or as tax friendly to live in, especially on the east […]
RichC | November 28, 2018
The Dow closed up 618 points on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell indicated that "interest rates are just below the neutral level that neither aids or hinders economic growth." Investors looking for something positive as they wait hoping for some good news during the G-20 meeting between President Trump and China’s Xi […]
RichC | November 13, 2018
After Monday’s selloff (see below), what lies ahead for the U.S. economy? That thought has some of seriously thinking the next economic downturn could come sooner rather than as expected … later. The sell off … "again" … has me wondering if we are prepared for the next recession? Is the U.S., or the world, […]
RichC | November 2, 2018
As the positive economy in the U.S. continues to grow America out of the "great recession" and rebound off the slow growth Obama years, we are seeing signs of inflation, hopefully just the right amount. Wages are rising and businesses sense they have pricing power and can raise prices (their cost are up too). Consumers […]
RichC | October 12, 2018
Q: Why am I not surprised to see U.S. stocks extend Wednesday’s ugly losses with more selling on Thursday? A: Because it is October! Well because the talking heads that “I listen to” point out just how strong our economy is and that corporate earnings are strong, consumer confidence high and the regulation and tax […]
RichC | February 9, 2018
With the rapid drop in oil prices, and equal "10% correction" in the overall stock market, will improving wages offset by falling commodities (oil) cause the Federal Reserve rethink their concern that inflation is picking up? Current thoughts were that we could see three quarter point rate hikes in 2018 if the economy continues to […]
RichC | July 12, 2017
The United States is healthy enough to absorb further gradual rate increases and the slow wind down of the massive bond portfolio accumulated by the Federal Reserve during the financial crisis, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in prepared testimony to be delivered to Congress Wednesday morning. Source: Fed’s Yellen says economy steady enough for more […]
RichC | June 14, 2017
Sort of a surprise to most Fed watchers today as the consensus was for the Federal Reserve to raise rates a 1/4 point in September, not June. Perhaps it won’t make much difference for the whole year, but Chair Janet Yellen obviously wants to stay ahead of the curve. The target inflation rate remain 2% […]
RichC | June 5, 2015
The jobs numbers were relatively positive considering the weak growth earlier this year, but still concerning in that the post-recession job growth is not was is normally expected after a recession. Still, one positive is that we are not facing inflation or seeing numbers that would indicate the U.S. is slipping back into a recession. […]
RichC | September 14, 2014
There was a spirited debate this past week concerning the Federal Reserves’ exit strategies and what will happen when the Fed balance sheet is deleveraged. The equity bulls continue to believe the U.S. will see economic grow as interest rates remain low and continued tame inflation numbers (some like Wilbur Ross are more concerned about […]
RichC | August 24, 2014
The stock market roars to new highs as the summer comes to an end, but investors continue pouring money into higher risk equities as if they have forgot what can happen. This is in part due to the low yield in fixed income assets and the new indice highs have more than a few economy […]
RichC | June 18, 2014
Lots of odds and ends in the news this Wednesday afternoon. First the Fed is not talking inflation and will be continuing with the expected $10 billion taper. Second, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezo introduced Amazon’s newest device called the Fire Phone … looks nice, but time will tell. It’s a 4.7” screen device with a […]
RichC | June 18, 2014
Ukraine continues to be under siege, SE Asia and Africa have unstable countries, Afghanistan will most likely go back to Taliban control, Iraq is imploding … but European markets are said to be in “recovery” and U.S. stock indices continue setting new highs and generating overly inflated annual returns for those “fully” invested (since when […]
RichC | May 6, 2014
Outspoken President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Richard Fisher, talked with Maria Bartiromo on her new Sunday Morning Futures program this weekend and laid out a good case lower tax rates. His point is that money and investment flows to where it is treated the best and in turn jobs and […]
RichC | May 2, 2014
Love him or hate him, billionaire “business magnate, politician and philanthropist” Michael Bloomberg clearly understands the effect the Federal Reserve has when it comes to pumping money into the economy. So simple and so true when it comes to who benefits the most from government trying to solve business and wealth inequity problems. He is […]
RichC | June 19, 2012
There's way too much speculation in the thought the Federal Reserve will again "try" to prime the economy when serious regulation and tax changes are what we need from Washington DC. If Bernanke and crew sit quietly on their hands or even suggest the economy doesn't need additional stimulus, we'll most likely see another stock […]
RichC | August 9, 2011
Although I’m tiring of watching the fickle up and down action of the stock market … as are those who might stumble across my blog these couple of weeks … it is better to be able to say that the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished near session highs today. The 429.92 points – 3.98% gain […]
RichC | June 22, 2011
It should come as no surprise, but after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered his remarks on Wednesday saying the U.S. economy was recovering more slowly than expected, Wall Street had little interest in continuing to move indices positive. More than likely the fact that the Fed saw no reason to tighten money supply in […]