My Desultory Blog

Posted By RichC on February 15, 2022

This post is going to be “a day late (or so) and a dollar short” post … just as the Cincinnati Bengals were in Sunday night’s Super Bowl LVI. Our young Bengals put up a valiant fight, but came away with a disappointing loss: Rams 23, Bengals 20.

As so many have said, 2022 for the YOUNG Cincinnati Bengals team has had a fairy tale season considering their lack of experience, five previous losing seasons and early season analysis that they needed another year of maturing. So as a Wild Card longshot, three playoff wins to earn the AFC title and trip to the Super Bowl was pretty impressive. It excited and inspired fans, the entire city of Cincinnati and everyone living in Ohio and for that matter, the tri-state area.

I’ve heard from friends and rival AFC fans who told me even they were rooting for the Bengals. Having lived 13 years in NE Ohio, it was good to hear from Cleveland fans (Go Browns!), and even Pittsburgh Steelers fans (I don’t know if I could cheer for them – just being honest) … and even a few people in Toledo who favor the NFC Detroit Lions.  I can understand their flipflopping dilemma in rooting for their old quarterback, Matthew Stafford, who QB-ed the Rams this season (I was secretly happy to see him finally win a Super Bowl ring).

Although I was disappointed in the loss, I was really disappointed that such a close game came down to a couple 2-minute referee calls that may have changed the outcome. I know it can go both ways (as it did with a missed call that favored the Bengals early in the game), but considering the referees stay out of the game until the last couple of minutes, it was difficult to stomach. Nevertheless, it feels good going to the big dance for the first time … in my son’s lifetime (last Super Bowl was in 1988 … although still no wins).

I commented on a Tweet from our young team leader and quarterback Joe Burrow … he has given fans something to get excited about; this hopefully will not be the last we see of him and this young and spirited group of guys – they definitely play as a team (and maybe in the off-season the coaches and head office can work on improving the offensive line? – hint, hint!) 

Also …

(more…)

Category: Archive, Idioms, Personal, Photos, Sports | No Comments »
Tags: bengals, cincinnati, grammarist, granddaughters, idiom, idioms, joe burrow, katelyn, LA Rams, matthew stafford, nfl, super bowl, superbowl, twitter

Posted By RichC on February 14, 2022

Considering I grew up listening to Carly Simon and James Taylor, it is surprising not to have included “You’re So Vain” from 1972 Music Monday before now … but as is say since 1386 (Chaucer) … “better late than never” (previous post: “Anticipation”).

In hearing the studio version played on SiriusXM’s “The Bridge” channel the other day, I thought the live concert version from Marthas Vineyard back in 1987 was worth including instead, as much as for the nautical surrounding as the music.

Category: Music, Tidbits | No Comments »
Tags: better late than never, carly simon, geoffrey chaucer, idiom, idioms, james taylor, marthas vineyard, music monday, musicmonday, siriusxm, the bridge, you're so vain, youtube

Posted By RichC on February 13, 2022

We’ve never been all that timely in getting Christmas decorations put away after the holidays, but this year we … and by “we” I mean Brenda … has been slower than usual.

To be fair, most everything has been packed and put away, but there are a few stragglers still around our house. I’m not sure if the Santa Mouse pocket thing made by MomC is still hanging because it was missed or if it is yet to be put away … but I’m not planning to remind her. We’ll see how long it can hang on? 😉

BOOKS:
I ordered a secondhand book on Ebay by famed investor Barton Biggs and am really looking forward to reading it and discussion with my friend Jeff (he’ll read nearly anything I recommend) HA! The book, “Wealth, War and Wisdom,” is a bit controversial and blends World War II and market performance and “lessons can help the twenty-first century investor comprehend our own perilous times as well as choose the best strategies for the modern market economy.” Although 368 pages, will be a quick read since when it is received, it will move to the top of my reading pile and has has my interest piqued.

Category: Books, Financial, History, Holiday, Humor, Millitary, Personal, Photos | No Comments »
Tags: barton biggs, book, brenda, christmas, decorations, house, investing, momc, santa mouse, war, wealth, wisdom, world war 2

Posted By RichC on February 12, 2022

Although this is really not a smooth continuation from yesterday’s “Inflation Hot” post, the financial and economic theme remains the same … so it will be considered “part 2.”

The post left off with trying to stop inflation in the 1980s and forcing a recession, actually “back to back recessions.” We can all hope that isn’t needed in our current inflationary situation, but considering the cyclical nature of an economy, a recession seems likely at some point in the future. So the question becomes … how do we predict a recession and better for those of use planning, when is it likely?

Enter commentary from Michael Foster, an Investment Strategist. Earlier this month he detailed the popular Inverted Yield Curve predictor which tracks short and long term bond interest rates to each other – or the spread in the two rates. In the “inverted” scenario, the normal higher rate for longer term than shorter bonds is actually “inverts” and the shorter term bonds yield more than the longer term bonds. When this happens, followers of this predictor are confident that a recession will soon follow.

This chart shows the difference between the 10-year US Treasury yield and the 2-year US Treasury yield. As I write this, the former is 1.816% and the latter is 1.196%. Thus the “spread” between the two is 0.62, a positive number.

That makes sense. After all, when you buy a 10-year Treasury, your money is locked up for a decade, so you should be compensated for that lack of liquidity. As you can see in the chart, that’s how things normally go.

But six times over the last 45 years, that number has gone negative, meaning investors were getting less interest for holding a longer-term bond. That makes no sense! When it happens, it’s called an inverted yield curve. And every time this setup occurs, a recession follows, often within six to 18 months.

So if we want to predict the next recession, we just need to watch the Treasury yield curve and, once it flips, we know a recession is coming.

Category: Financial, History, News, Politics | No Comments »
Tags: chart, economy, federal reserve, History, inflation, part 2, recession, yield curve

Posted By RichC on February 11, 2022

It is pretty obvious to most consumers that even with years of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates low, printing money and Congress spending, inflation remained in check at under 2%. Unfortunately after the last round of easy money policies during the pandemic, business shutdowns and government giving away money, this is no longer true. Inflation has reared its ugly head big time and is now taking a significant bite out of paychecks and putting the pinch to family budgets. Where the cycle stop in the “prices going up” and “we need more pay and more government assistance” spiral … who knows?

What we do know is that the last time inflation was running this hot, I was going to college, looking for a job, newly married and eventually trying to start a business. Thankfully I was relatively naïve and clueless to anything but living in inflationary times.

Last month I read a "A Grim History Repeats at the Fed" commentary in Barron’s Magazine that reviewed some of the economic goings-on during those days and what eventually had to be done to break the back of inflation. When heard that it eventually required “back to back recessions,” it seemed drastic … but then again after a decade of economists trying to bring inflation under control and failing, policies triggering recession is how the inflation spiral ended.

As Milton Friedman said in 1970, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” Little has changed since then.

For most of the 1970s, Arthur Burns was chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. Inflation was rampant, just like now. Consumer price inflation averaged nearly 7% during his term. As Friedman diagnosed correctly, this rapid inflation was mainly caused by increases in the money supply of over 12% in the years 1971-72 and 1976-77. Instead, Burns attributed the price increases mainly to wage pressures, monopoly power, and the oil shock of the early 1970s.

Sound familiar? Inflation is again soaring, and the Fed blames supply constraints caused by the pandemic while neglecting to look at the increasing money supply as the main cause. It’s always easier to blame external factors rather than something that you control and have responsibility for.

I had the honor of serving under Chairman Paul Volcker on the Federal Reserve Board starting in 1986, when he was trying to bring inflation under control. President Jimmy Carter had appointed Volcker in August 1979 with the mandate to reduce the double-digit inflation rate. President Ronald Reagan confirmed this objective after he took office. With determination, Volcker raised the federal-funds rate to 20% by June 1981 and reduced the growth of the money supply. Not one, but two back-to-back recessions resulted.

The situation in Washington was tense while the monetary policy medicine took its course. But Volcker and the board prevailed and reduced the annual growth rate of the money supply from over 12.6% in 1979 to a much more reasonable 5.3% when he left the Fed in August 1987. Alan Greenspan continued the anti-inflationary policies. By the time I left the board in 1989, consumer price increases had moderated to only 4.6%.

The Fed was on its way to defeating inflation and keeping it under control for the rest of the century. The falling interest rates that accompanied the decline in inflation were a welcome side effect. These low rates supported decades of growth and prosperity.

Full Robert Heller Barron’s Commentary article

Will it again .. and if so when will the next recession come? (see Part 2)

Category: Financial, History, News, Politics | No Comments »
Tags: barrons, commentary, economists, economy, federal reserve, History, inflation, part 1, recession

Posted By RichC on February 10, 2022

In early February 2022, most of the U.S. received a heavy ice and snow storm. There were quite a few shared photos on the social networks and an animated GIF of a huge snowman triggered memories of our Hudson, Ohio winters in NE Ohio.

Back then I had an old Ford 800 that I used around the property with a mower in the summer and a blade for our long driveway in the winter (pre-Bobcat743 days). Another perk of owning a tractor was that it had a bucket for yardwork, tree cutting and hauling from back in the woods and even to build giant snowmen.

  INSERT MISSING PHOTO/VIDEO

After searching for the photos (could it be on video?), I could only find a couple autumn photos of me hauling around my nephews … Ben and David Skinner (photos below). What boy doesn’t enjoy riding around on a tractor … or for that matter enjoy bulldozers (DadH’s).

If I find the snowman video/photos (with my brother-in-law Gary hauling the head in the bucket), I’ll add them to this Throwback Thursday #TBT post to archive the memories.

Category: Archive, Memories, Personal, Photos, TBT, Weather | No Comments »
Tags: ani gif, anigif, ben skinner, bobcat, bulldozer, david skinner, ford 800, gary gerber, hudson, ne ohio, nephews, ohio, snow, snowman, TBT, tractor, winter, youtube

Posted By RichC on February 9, 2022

Last week I had dinner with my buddy Jeff after taking him to pick up his car from a seat repair/re-upholstering job. He previously planned it so we could go to our “old” favorite Acapulco Mexican Restaurant (which is no longer tolerated as well in my digestive track as it was 20 years ago).

He had a “Trivia for the Toilet” book from Christmas to give me, suspecting it would go over well – knowing our long running bathroom humor jokes (all clean by-the-way). He also noticed that I could no longer eat the usual “Cardiac Arrest (our nickname) Number 4 Combo” meal, declaring that I was slipping. We chuckled about getting older and talked about losing a few pounds, doctors pushing meds and eating healthier. The positive is that I have lost a few pounds, but would still like to be down another 5 by summer.

I would be remise not to include the “toilet humor photo” that I sent to Jeff .. in which he declared: “I will NEVER be able to unsee that!”

(more…)

Category: Books, Food, Friends, Humor, Memories, Misc, Personal, Photos | No Comments »
Tags: acapulco, bike, book, Humor, jeff pitts, jeffp, mexican, photo, pink onesy, puddle, Restaurant, trivia

Posted By RichC on February 8, 2022

Trusting the weather on my Fitbit Versa watch isn’t much better than referring to the Farmer’s Almanac for daily weather forecasts. I’m starting to wonder who is feeding the information for our area. All I can see is sun … where’s the RAIN?

Yes .. I really do know that it’s probably an iPhone to Fitbit app to Versa synchronization thing … not the weather app provider thing. 😉

EDIT and updating publish date to 2/8/2022: The next day it happened again … and even after a sync, the Fitbit watch indicates rain but the sky is blue and sunny. Something is goofy.

Category: Gadget, Photos, Technology, Weather | No Comments »
Tags: battery, fitbit, forecast, trust, versa, watch, weather

Posted By RichC on February 8, 2022

This content is restricted.

Category: Archive, Misc, Personal, Photos, Social Media, Weather, Woodworking | No Comments »
Tags: annalyn, cincinnati, east walnut hills, ellerie, family, granddaughers, lumber, perrysburg, playing, project, rocking chair, snow, snowman, taylor, weekend, winter, woodworking, workshop

Posted By RichC on February 7, 2022

This content is restricted.

Category: Music, Video | No Comments »
Tags: 1960s, beach boys, dreaming, escapism, huarache, mp3, music monday, musicmonday, sandals, surfin' usa, video, youtube