RichC | October 25, 2024
Nobody really knows when the next recession will come, but economists and those of us who monitor investments would really like to know before it arrives. This week while moving a few more dollars to the sideline, at least until after the November 2024 election and until mid-January 2025 (parked in a 3-month CD) … I […]
RichC | August 6, 2024
As an amateur market follower, I have watched economic indicators that signal boom and bust cycles for years. One of the more insightful signals is the spread between treasury yields (inverted yield curve) … especially the 10 and 2 year treasuries. An inversion has been a good indicator of a recession … as posted a […]
RichC | July 26, 2023
Katelyn and Drew brought us back some Rowdy barbecue sauce when they took a trip to Tennessee in the spring. I didn’t get a chance to use it until last week — chicken wings in the toaster oven (better than Buffalo sauce?) Anyway, a belated thanks; it is delicious. A chart/graph in the WSJ last […]
RichC | July 15, 2023
My financial and investment musings have been few and far between lately, but while reading Barron’s Magazine article this past week, it reminded me that we investors often can look to history for insight. If you don’t want to read it, try listening to it — Audio ElevenLabs. ElevenLabs AI reading this content – […]
RichC | May 4, 2023
While waiting for the big TWO TRILLION dollar company that is Apple ($AAPL) to report earning after hours on Thursday (story), I’m contemplating the likely outcome of accelerated interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Obviously concluding that “inflation in transitory,” as the Fed Chair commented after the pandemic, was the incorrect assumption … and […]
RichC | September 15, 2022
As we face another recession (some believe we are already in one – see February 2022 part 1 and part 2), I couldn’t help but notice a post from about this time of the year in 2008 (see chart at left) when we faced a previous self-inflicted recession (banking crisis). The 2007-2008 Financial Crisis was the […]
RichC | September 13, 2022
If you believe the number 13 makes for an unlucky day, you’ll probably point to that as an omen … but the deep, nearly 1300 points, drop in the Dow came as investors and economists were expecting an easing pace of inflation … not continued high inflation. The CPI report indicated a 8.3% rate compared […]
RichC | August 7, 2022
While discussing the “will it” or “won’t it” Inflation Reduction Act being pushed by Democratic leadership in Washington DC as a way to replace the failed 2021 Build Back Better spending plan by President Biden last week, I figured digging into the details might prove better than spewing left or right talking points. The bill […]
RichC | July 24, 2022
UGH! Gasoline may have dropped 40 cent per gallon as American consumers cut back on travel and driving due to inflation and the likely coming recession, but diesel prices continue to remain elevated. There are very few options when “you need to get to go, and need to be able to get where you need […]
RichC | April 23, 2022
As the Fed finally starts to deal with inflation, the market took note this month and seems to be selling off across the board. The expectation is that the economy will slow and as they say in the investing world, “don’t fight the Fed.” There isn’t a silver bullet that can keep businesses booming, paychecks […]
RichC | March 26, 2022
The “pain at the pump” is definitely real if you are buying fuel and if you have spend the last decade with gas and diesel at 40+% lower than we are seeing today. That said, in inflation-adjusted dollars, we are still off the highest per barrel prices that we have seen (chart below). Most oil […]
RichC | March 12, 2022
Nobody wants to really hear or see anymore written about inflation. We’ve all seen it with our own two eyes and our wallets have felt it since the Biden administration took office. No more though than the last couple of weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine as the West’s political miscalculations and head-in-the-tar-sands polices have made […]
RichC | February 12, 2022
Although this is really not a smooth continuation from yesterday’s “Inflation Hot” post, the financial and economic theme remains the same … so it will be considered “part 2.” The post left off with trying to stop inflation in the 1980s and forcing a recession, actually “back to back recessions.” We can all hope that […]
RichC | February 11, 2022
It is pretty obvious to most consumers that even with years of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates low, printing money and Congress spending, inflation remained in check at under 2%. Unfortunately after the last round of easy money policies during the pandemic, business shutdowns and government giving away money, this is no longer true. […]
RichC | March 11, 2020
Although I suspect all the selling on Wall Street has to do with needed cash or the “sell and re-assess later” attitude, I’ve been puzzled that gold (usual safe haven) and utilities have been hit as well. Personally I thought these areas might balance exposure to industrials, tech and energy. Obviously not as Wednesday’s market […]
RichC | November 13, 2018
After Monday’s selloff (see below), what lies ahead for the U.S. economy? That thought has some of seriously thinking the next economic downturn could come sooner rather than as expected … later. The sell off … "again" … has me wondering if we are prepared for the next recession? Is the U.S., or the world, […]
RichC | July 8, 2018
As the current bull stock market gets long in the tooth (average is 7 years, we’re now closing in on 9 years), financial analysts are beginning to write regularly about preparing for the next slowdown. Few are declaring it over at this moment, but most advise prudence as it comes to what investments are being […]
RichC | June 26, 2018
How does on plan for the flattening yield curve – or even inversion (spread between 10-yr and 2-yr Treasury Bonds)? Barron’s – June 2018: “Inversion has an amazing record of forecasting recession…but stocks have typically continued to rise (sometimes sharply) after the inversion with a median gain of 13.1%.…Bottom line: the flattening yield curve is […]
RichC | May 20, 2015
The Federal Reserve officials doubted they would be ready to raise short-term interest rates by midyear, according to minutes of the meeting released Wednesday. Fed officials, along with most economists, are struggling to make sense of a first-quarter economic slowdown. The normal pattern of post-recession growth has been non-existent as job growth has been tepid […]
RichC | January 10, 2015
One would think that a “rising tide lifts all boats” when it comes to gains for financial markets, but that is not the case for conservatively managed U.S. pension funds. The strong stock market returns during 2013 and 2014 have helped most individual investors recover from the 2008 financial collapse, so as long as they […]
RichC | July 26, 2013
These are the kinds of stories that I need to keep away from my job-seeking son … but that I would have used as “dream material” when in high school or college! ESCAPING THE RECESSION BY BOAT When the Great Recession hit, young people found a million different ways to cope with their battered job […]
RichC | July 23, 2012
I’ve noticed that Americans have been buying a few more new cars this year and that after a few lean years car manufacturers “were” starting to feel the recession ending. Now that sounds like good news, eh? (below: first half 2012 sales increase or decrease based on a new car sales price … all up […]
RichC | June 3, 2011
The Dow Jones Industrial average continued its slide back towards 12,000 and most other indices followed suit. Unfortunately the stream of negative news relating to the economy has been pressuring buyers to either remain on the sidelines or sell shares in all but a few hot IPO offerings. From companies slow to hire new workers, […]
RichC | April 29, 2011
Call me a negative Nellie, but one has to wonder if we are really seeing much of an economic recovery? With prices rising, inflation looming (if not already here) and the buying power of the dollar severely weakened over the past year, how will Americans perceive those elected and appointed to guide the United States […]
RichC | March 1, 2011
The pain at the pump over high fuel prices will most likely slow the pace of our tepid economic recovery. For Americans fortunate enough to be fully employed, that means spending more dollars on fuel and less in other areas that might have hired a new workers. For businesses that mean a higher cost of […]
RichC | February 4, 2010
The Dow Jones Industrials moved down over 270 points on Thursday as the economy stumbles yet again despite the promises of recovery from those spending taxpayer dollars in Washington. The move from equities by investors and traders is likely due to a rise in U.S. unemployment claims (up 8000 last week or 480,000 new claims) […]