My Desultory Blog

Posted By RichC on November 7, 2014

The Stock Trader’s Almanac is always an interesting read in referencing history when it comes to forecasting market moves. If their research is correct we may still have 5-10% to grow. Quite bullish.

Since the great stock washout of 2014 the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have gone up about nine percent in a straight line. That move is pretty much in line with history says Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. “Seasonally we set up properly,” Hirsch said, adding that the move lower “wiped out a lot of overly bullish sentiment.”

So where to now? According to the almanac we are now smack dab in the middle of the strongest three-month period of the year. Hirsch goes as far as to say that despite that 9% surge since the mid-October lows, this market has room to run… 5-10% kind of room.

There are other buying opportunities between here and the end of the year. “Thanksgiving is a tradable period,” Hirsch notes. “We see these days it’s getting anticipated, get into some weakness early sell into some strength into Thanksgiving or shortly thereafter.

Still, he cautions, let the trader beware. Christmas creep isn’t just happening in retail, it’s happening in investing as well. As soon as kids come down from their trick or treat sugar high pundits start throwing around the term “Santa Claus rally.” But the term Santa Clause actually refers very specifically the “last five days of the year [and] first two of the new year when the professionals are mostly out there buying…stocks that are beaten down.”

Whatever you do remember that past performance does not guarantee future returns. While the Stock Trader’s Almanac deals with history, the information therein is always changing. Case in point: January. “January used to be the tail end of the best three months of the year,” Hirsch says, but he points out that it has been “taking it on the chin lately.” Perhaps it’s because investors are taking profits from a successful year-end rally or two. It has led him to caution investors that a correction could be coming early in 2015.

Link

Category: Financial | No Comments »
Tags: investing, markets, stocks, trading

Posted By RichC on November 7, 2014

Microsoft is offering standalone versions of Word, Excel and PowerPoint for iPhone, giving users a much better productivity suite for the mobile devices.

Prior to the new mobile apps, users who wanted to use Office on an iPhone had to use “Microsoft Office Mobile,” which really only allowed users to view documents and input text.

Link

Category: Cellphone, Computer, Software, Tablet | No Comments »
Tags: apple, apps, excel, ios, microsoft, office, techfriday, word

Posted By RichC on November 6, 2014

After attempting to sell my mother-in-law’s western New York home by using a realtor this summer, the family has decided to forgo the continued “professional” listing and instead do a FSBO listing … handing it off to yours truly. What are they thinking??? I’ve taken on the project and will “learn as I go” (advice appreciated).

I’ve opted to put a listing on Sharphome.com at the $59 for 6 months which hopefully will include a few listing sites as advertised, but have passed on the Realtor.com or MLS Listing in order to avoid the broker commissions. Hopefully the yard sign alone will be enough to trigger interest.

For those interested, the Restored Century Farmhouse is a couple miles from Jamestown NY. It sits on a beautiful wooded hill and has a creek and ravine just off the back porch (above) to the east (previous post). The 5 acreage being sold with the house is negotiable since there are an additional 34 wooded acres aside and behind the old homestead as well as another 17 acre section (both include gas wells); all could worked into a deal for an interested buyer. Contact me if there is interest.

Also here’s the listing and the PDF brochure.

EDIT: Adding a short video below after playing with iMovie on my iPhone.

Category: Archive, For Sale, Marketing, Personal, Shopping, Video | 1 Comment »
Tags: family, farmhouse, for sale, home, howard, jamestown, new york, property

Posted By RichC on November 5, 2014

Diesel exhaust treatment technology has vastly improved diesel engine emissions over the past decade along with ULSD fuels, but the technology is costly primarily due to rare earth metals. According to a press release yesterday, Clean Diesel Technologies, Inc $CDTI announced new proprietary Spinel™ technology will replace the use of platinum type metals in catalytic products.

This is CDTi’s first public announcement regarding Spinel technology, the development of which has been kept confidential until now.

About Spinel

• A family of proprietary materials using various base metals that replace costly platinum group metals (PGMs) and rare earth metals in coatings on standard catalytic converters
• Works across a wide range of engine and vehicle applications – both diesel and gasoline
• Advanced testing underway on production models of popular passenger cars and heavy duty vehicles at respected independent vehicle test facilities

Spinel Significance and Benefits

• Potentially saves OEMs billions of dollars by cutting out expensive platinum group metals and rare earth metals
• Currently OEMs spend over $6 billion a year on PGMs (source:Derived from Johnson Matthey PLC)
• Enables early, cost-effective compliance with stricter emissions standards in the U.S. and around the world
• Mitigates OEM exposure to extreme price volatility in the PGM and rare earth markets

See Full Press Release

Category: Automotive, Diesel, Energy | No Comments »
Tags: cars, clean, diesel, energy, fuel, trucks, vehicles

Posted By RichC on November 4, 2014

There is a populous push coming from Democrats and the Obama administration to increase the Federal minimum wage … instead of letting markets to set the proper levels. It’s understandable with all the negatives facing the Whitehouse and failing policies being pushed by Democrats to create jobs, that politicians resort to simpleton tactics that appeal to primarily their constituents  …unfortunately like government assistance programs, artificially changing wages creates more problems than solving them.

First of all, a $10 or whatever minimum wage doesn’t work nationally. The cost of living in one area of the country is not comparable to costs in other areas. Wages seek a level based on the availability of workers … supply and demand Economics … but I’ll concede that “forcing minimums” is the option that is left for Democrats due to the Obama administrations failed economic policies. A laser focused recovery based on job creation would have been far better policy than one that continues to increase business cost in the U.S.

The minimum raise is still a small issue in the big picture, but raising it does not encourage more jobs. No, it will reduce hiring and increase costs for small businesses that rely on inexpensive labor. The options are to raise prices, reduce labor or shutter a business … none are great for the U.S. economy. Let’s say employers with payroll increase are able to raise their price and continue to operate profitably – if so, who pays for the items being made or served by minimum wage workers. Often its fast food or services purchase by the same workers stuck at minimum wage … or those who were slightly above minimum wage and now find their wages back at the new minimum while prices rise. Then there are those on fixed incomes … how do they pay higher prices? What’s next … increases in Social Security and government assistance benefits due to higher prices? Who really wins?

Again … market forces need to set the wages … not the bureaucrats. Make the U.S. the most attractive place to innovate, locate and manufacture and we’ll see job creation and wages rise. Look to history and how this country became the envy of the world.

1. Corporate Tax reform – at least in line with other countries
2. Reduced governmental red tape – small business is hamstrung
3. Ease regulations from EPA and mandatory health care laws
4. Educate with more attention to vocation
5. Encourage work and discourage long-term entitlements

Go Vote Today!

Category: Business, Financial, Politics | No Comments »
Tags: Business, economics, economy, minimum wage

Posted By RichC on November 3, 2014

Here’s a new chart for those who enjoy the occasion Chartist trader humor … Gold’s Two Hump Vomiting Camel Pattern chart from CNBC’s Fast Money.

Category: Financial, Humor | No Comments »
Tags: charts, cnbc, finance, investing, trading

Posted By RichC on November 3, 2014

Most financial experts emphasis not to “time the market” when investing, but it is difficult to resist researching and compiling statistics?  Well, I’m guilty and have used a few when routinely adding investments to a retirement portfolio, particularly when buying the broad market.

In the 1990s when trading futures somewhat regularly (not comfortably or particularly successfully), I kept a pencil drawn chart in my Franklin Day Planner as a historical and “statistical” reminder that several months were better BUY months than others. A few things have changed since then and figured it was time for an update.

What it means “to me” is that  when buying and selling the S&P 500 contract or an ETF, making BUYS  statistically are better March, April, July, October, November and December … with SELLS in May, June, August and September – remember though, experts advise against timing as an investment plan.

Paul A. Merriman (financial educator and best selling author):

First, I know a lot about market timing, which I’ve been using and teaching for 30 years. Second, in theory market timing is brilliant. Third, in practice it just doesn’t work successfully for most investors.

Below is my current Excel Spreadsheet “reminder” chart … use it at your own peril.

Category: Advice, Financial | No Comments »
Tags: charts, Financial, investing, markets, statistics, timing, trading

Posted By RichC on November 2, 2014

This content is restricted.

Category: Audio, Education, History, Music, Politics | No Comments »
Tags: constitution, csny, government, History, mp3, rights, school

Posted By RichC on November 1, 2014

Slowly but sure I’m corralling my carry and travel computing gadgets and getting a handle on wasteful monthly expenses associated with keeping them connected. Those who have followed my blog from a technology perspective have probably detected my economizing while still “trying” to remain in current century computing. This year our grown children are on their own cellphone plans and that gave me the perfect opportunity to switch carriers without the dreaded ETF or phone contract to deal with. The timing was perfect for the switch from Sprint to Ting since the later also recently announced BYOD permission to bring my own iPhone5s (ridiculous).

The switch reduced my cellphone bill from the $112/mo Sprint plan to what looks to be about $64/mo + tax with Ting. Not bad for the same service plus a few extras like free tethering, no contract and a further reduced bill if we have months of fewer minute, text messages or megabytes of data (still disappointed in data cost). So far this is a great savings.

Step two was selling my old iPad2 on eBay($235) and upgrading to a new iPad Air 2. I seriously thought about giving the Microsoft Surface Pro 3 a try, but realized just how much my iPad had become my favorite device. It is a terrific ebook and newspaper reader and now with the reduced weight is even better. That still leave me with my 7 pound 2007 Gateway NX570XL behemoth of a laptop to horse around … so there is still upgrade work to be done (but getting 8 years out of a daily use notebook computer is pretty good). Upgrade aside, I do find myself using my iMac desktop more and “settling” for light-duty email and websurfing on the iPad.

Speaking of staying connected, all devices now love to be connected to the Internet all the time. No longer is it realistic to “dial in” a few times a day to download email or update a file. No … the cloud connection is pretty important so at minimum WiFi is a way of life. Thankfully most of the time I can work from one “unlimited WiFi connection” to another, but for those in between times it is becoming convenient to have seamless WiFi to wireless on every device. With that realization, I added a pre-paid T-Mobile service to my new iPad Air 2 (FYI, there is a promo included with my iPad purchase of 5 months and 5 GB of T-Mobile LTE for $10, a no-brainer).

For comparison sake, I checked each device at the house to see how they faired. None of them are earthshattering, but then again I really don’t want super fast carrier based wireless gobbling up my data in a single download or video either. All are acceptable although I continue to be disappointed with my Time Warner Cable Internet (part due to my 8-port NetGear ProSafe VPN firewall I’m sure).

The final pieces to my travel puzzle is using my free NetTalk VOIP phone at home and Google Talk/Voice on my computer for business calling or the Hangouts app on my iPhone to make phone call in order to reduce my Ting usage too. Besides Google’s free phone calling, I’ve been using the Freedompop app on my iPhone (200 minutes/mo free) giving me a Florida based phone number … a way for two Ting phones on the same plan to call each other and reduce minute use!

Freedompop is also my LTE MiFi device as a hotspot when traveling. As mentioned before, it worked flawlessly on our last trip to Florida as we didn’t even bother accessing the marina’s wifi network (notoriously slow). I do pay for both 3G fallback ability ($3.99) and rollover data ($3.99) so as to “bank” my monthly 500MB of data so more GB is available when needed (below).

A final pieces of the puzzle that are really necessary to mention are the overseas SIMed Global old school flip phone and a free smartphone on the Freedompop network that cost “zero dollars” per month (this should be what those on public assistance use). The Android Samsung Galaxy S2 phone is allotted 200 minutes per month and 500MB of data … but service and quirky interface is less than perfect … but it is free! Keeping these phones active costs nothing … even though the global phone is expensive to use when traveling in or beyond the U.S.

Monthly projected expenses for my “mobile” life are now:

Ting (2 iPhones) $64 + T-Mobile $2/mo (promo) + Freedompop $8= Total $74+ tax.

Category: Advice, Cellphone, Computer, Productivity, Tablet, Technology | 1 Comment »
Tags: freedompop, ipad, iphone, speedtest, sprint, t-mobile, ting, wifi, wireless

Posted By RichC on October 31, 2014

The debris photos are starting to show up on the Internet on Twitter after the Virgin Galactic SpaceShipTwo prototype was lost after its first powered test since January. The crash of this suborbital “passenger carrying” spaceship happened at the Mojave Air and Space Port in California according to officials. Two pilots were aboard the craft and their condition is not known at this time, but according to reports the malfunction happened upon powering up of the rocket engine.

More than 800 people have paid or put down deposits to fly aboard the spaceship, which is carried to an altitude of about 45,000 feet and released. The spaceship then fires its rocket motor to catapult it to about 62 miles (100 km) high, giving passengers a view of the planet set against the blackness of space and a few minutes of weightlessness.

The spaceship is based on a prototype, called SpaceShipOne, which 10 years ago won the $10 million Ansari X Prize for the first privately developed manned spacecraft to fly in space.

Reuters

Category: Aviation, News, Space | 2 Comments »
Tags: crash, flight, space, spaceshiptwo, virgin galactic