Archive: A Sunday afternoon Happy Birthday to Ellerie (photos)
Posted By RichC on February 20, 2022
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Does she smile or not smile … that is the question?
Posted By RichC on February 20, 2022
The photo to the left is one of those photos taking up bandwidth and being passed around the Internet in emails and on social networks. The assumption is that most people see a photo of a girl who is NOT smiling.
The suggestion is that if you “squint” a bit, you can see a photo of a girl who IS smiling.
Any luck? The mind is impressive … just like trying to read typos and jumbled text (see below).
Archive: Slow progress on a customized child’s rocking chair
Posted By RichC on February 19, 2022
I used the word “customized” because besides getting the “rocker” for this chair from a set of plans … for safety sake … I’ve been tweaking the children’s rocking chair from collected ideas … and trial and error. Besides wanting to use dimensional lumber and running it through the planner for the frames, I’ve pulled couple ideas from other plans — like the single angled back post, seat and arm dimensions and slat on the back (not shown). The goal is to to use only oak dowels (photos above), biscuits and Titebond III waterproof glue on the project and no mechanical fasteners, then paint with an
exterior paint so that the chair can be left out on a patio or deck (have I mentioned how much I like the Silicone Glue Spreading tool?)
Anyway, I’m archiving a few photos marking my slow woodworking project progress below. (more…)
Tech Friday: Testing Twitter labels for automated bots
Posted By RichC on February 18, 2022
Over the years of playing (learning) Linux, setting up APIs and running webservers on a few Raspberry Pi computers, I’ve set up a Twitter “bot” in order to track them and keep them running.
Last September 2021 Twitter launched an experiment of labels for these kinds of accounts that was voluntary. I run a “bot” for this blog (not on Raspberry Pi computers and I have not set it up yet) and another on to update my Quickdex “bot” (on the Raspberry Pis) which is Qdex (sample below, now setup).
So far so good and the only notification is that each Tweet is now labeled “automated” and under the Qdex profile is indicate that the account is “Automated by @quickdex.” Someday maybe I’ll work a little more on the Quickdex database project, although I did connect earlier this week with entrepreneur James Altucher on his latest website idea.
Paper magazines/newspaper delivery woes and shrinkflation
Posted By RichC on February 17, 2022
Well, two doses of disappointing news in one week. First, the Bengals lose in Super Bowl 56, and then my Barron’s magazine gets smaller with even smaller type (requires a second pair of readers!). They call it “shrinkflation” in an attempt to save a few dollars and probably force subscribers into a 100% digital subscription. I must be getting old as I miss my printing and ink on paper days. And if that wasn’t enough, the week ending “shrunken” Friday published paper Barron’s magazine is no longer going to be delivered on Saturday … and not until Monday! Frankly by the time I pick up 3 to 4 day old financial stories on a Monday night, they are no longer all that important or interesting, besides it was my weekend reading.
To make matters even more challenging, I also received an email from the publisher of the Wall Street Journal telling me that my Saturday WSJ is no longer going to be delivered on Saturday morning, but now on Sunday. I know … the message is clear. It is time to go fully digital. Still … browsing the newspaper or sifting through the table of contents isn’t the same on a computer, tablet or smartphone and I definitely miss reading content (that said, I do often spot the article in the paper and finish reading it on the iPad). The Times They Are-A-Changin’ …
A new-to-me Arabica Bean Coffee and a family photo to save to the 2022 Valentine’s Day blog archive
Posted By RichC on February 16, 2022
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The Bengals going to Super Bowl LVI meant a lot to Cincinnati
Posted By RichC on February 15, 2022
This post is going to be “a day late (or so) and a dollar short” post … just as the Cincinnati Bengals were in Sunday night’s Super Bowl LVI. Our young Bengals put up a valiant fight, but came away with a disappointing loss: Rams 23, Bengals 20.
As so many have said, 2022 for the YOUNG Cincinnati Bengals team has had a fairy tale season considering their lack of experience, five previous losing seasons and early season analysis that they needed another year of maturing. So as a Wild Card longshot, 
three playoff wins to earn the AFC title and trip to the Super Bowl was pretty impressive. It excited and inspired fans, the entire city of Cincinnati and everyone living in Ohio and for that matter, the tri-state area.
I’ve heard from friends and rival AFC fans who told me even they were rooting for the Bengals. Having lived 13 years in NE Ohio, it was good to hear from Cleveland fans (Go Browns!), and even Pittsburgh Steelers fans (I don’t know if I could cheer for them – just being honest) … and even a few people in Toledo who favor the NFC Detroit Lions. I can understand their flipflopping dilemma in rooting for their old quarterback, Matthew Stafford, who QB-ed the Rams this season (I was secretly happy to see him finally win a 
Super Bowl ring).
Although I was disappointed in the loss, I was really disappointed that such a close game came down to a couple 2-minute referee calls that may have changed the outcome. I know it can go both ways (as it did with a missed call that favored the Bengals early in the game), but considering the referees stay out of the game until the last couple of minutes, it was difficult to stomach. Nevertheless, it feels good going to the big dance for the first time … in my son’s lifetime (last Super Bowl was in 1988 … although still no wins).
I commented on a Tweet from our young team leader and quarterback Joe Burrow … he has given fans something to get excited about; this hopefully will not be the last we see of him and this young and spirited group of guys – they definitely play as a team (and maybe in the off-season the coaches and head office can work on improving the offensive line? – hint, hint!)
Also …
Music Monday: Carly Simon – “You’re So Vain” recorded live in Marthas Vineyard in 1987
Posted By RichC on February 14, 2022
Considering I grew up listening to Carly Simon and James Taylor, it is surprising not to have included “You’re So Vain” from 1972 Music Monday before now … but as is say since 1386 (Chaucer) … “better late than never” (previous post: “Anticipation”).
In hearing the studio version played on SiriusXM’s “The Bridge” channel the other day, I thought the live concert version from Marthas Vineyard back in 1987 was worth including instead, as much as for the nautical surrounding as the music.
Books: “Wealth, War and Wisdom” by Barton Biggs (2009) and a little “How Long will the Santa Mouse Decor Remain” humor
Posted By RichC on February 13, 2022
We’ve never been all that timely in getting Christmas decorations put away after the holidays, but this year we … and by “we” I mean Brenda … has been slower than usual.
To be fair, most everything has been packed and put away, but there are a few stragglers still around our house. I’m not sure if the Santa Mouse pocket thing made by MomC is still hanging because it was missed or if it is yet to be put away … but I’m not planning to remind her. We’ll see how long it can hang on? 😉
BOOKS:
I ordered a secondhand book on Ebay by famed investor Barton Biggs and am really looking forward to reading it and discussion with my friend Jeff (he’ll read nearly anything I recommend) HA! The book, “Wealth, War and Wisdom,” is a bit controversial and blends World War II and market performance and “lessons can help the twenty-first century investor comprehend our own perilous times as well as choose the best strategies for the modern market economy.” Although 368 pages, will be a quick read since when it is received, it will move to the top of my reading pile and has has my interest piqued.
Inflation Hot? (Part 2): Inverted Yield Curve and Recession
Posted By RichC on February 12, 2022
Although this is really not a smooth continuation from yesterday’s “Inflation Hot” post, the financial and economic theme remains the same … so it will be considered “part 2.”
The post left off with trying to stop inflation in the 1980s and forcing a recession, actually “back to back recessions.” We can all hope that isn’t needed in our current inflationary situation, but considering the cyclical nature of an economy, a recession seems likely at some point in the future. So the question becomes … how do we predict a recession and better for those of use planning, when is it likely?
Enter commentary from Michael Foster, an Investment Strategist. Earlier this month he detailed the popular Inverted Yield Curve predictor which tracks short and long term bond interest rates to each other – or the spread in the two rates. In the “inverted” scenario, the normal higher rate for longer term than shorter bonds is actually “inverts” and the shorter term bonds yield more than the longer term bonds. When this happens, followers of this predictor are confident that a recession will soon follow.
This chart shows the difference between the 10-year US Treasury yield and the 2-year US Treasury yield. As I write this, the former is 1.816% and the latter is 1.196%. Thus the “spread” between the two is 0.62, a positive number.
That makes sense. After all, when you buy a 10-year Treasury, your money is locked up for a decade, so you should be compensated for that lack of liquidity. As you can see in the chart, that’s how things normally go.
But six times over the last 45 years, that number has gone negative, meaning investors were getting less interest for holding a longer-term bond. That makes no sense! When it happens, it’s called an inverted yield curve. And every time this setup occurs, a recession follows, often within six to 18 months.
So if we want to predict the next recession, we just need to watch the Treasury yield curve and, once it flips, we know a recession is coming.
Desultory - des-uhl-tawr-ee, -tohr-ee
- lacking in consistency, constancy, or visible order, disconnected; fitful: desultory conversation.
- digressing from or unconnected with the main subject; random: a desultory remark.