RichC | August 6, 2024
As an amateur market follower, I have watched economic indicators that signal boom and bust cycles for years. One of the more insightful signals is the spread between treasury yields (inverted yield curve) … especially the 10 and 2 year treasuries. An inversion has been a good indicator of a recession … as posted a […]
RichC | July 11, 2024
Those of us following the stock market and managing investments can’t help but smile at the strong U.S. financial markets on Wednesday and so far this summer. For some who “sell in May and go away” (as the idiom goes) … they are are not smiling quite as much. As a long term value investor, […]
RichC | April 12, 2023
Guess when this Fed news came out? High inflation and tight labor markets led Federal Reserve officials to signal they could raise interest rates at their next meeting despite a higher likelihood the economy would enter a recession later this year. Fed officials considered skipping a rate increase at their meeting last month but concluded […]
RichC | April 26, 2022
The financial markets have been following the Federal Reserves messaging regarding tightening their easy money policies and has been selling off the last few days. The more aggressive, but late stance to slow inflation is one needed piece of the puzzle … although also heights concerns over slow growth or even a recession. That news […]
RichC | June 9, 2021
When it comes to investing, I’m primarily a “value investor” who relies on fundamentals, but as for “trading,” which I have tinkered with for 30 years now, I’m an advocate self imposed rules and focusing on channel trading. Of course there are zillions of gurus boasting how they have perfected buy and sell signals, I […]
RichC | March 25, 2021
For the most part, I’m a conservative investor, although a regular channel trader, and I rarely speculates on risky upstarts, IPOs, zero-profit tech stocks, pharmaceutical long-shots or the latest crazy … cryptocurrency trend. Since most “risk” involves speculation, I see it more akin to gambling than eyes-open informed value or growth investing … both which […]
RichC | March 10, 2020
The “old school” razor sharpening animated GIF below has NOTHING to do with my emotional state after stomaching Monday’s stock market crash and “oil war” between Russia and Saudi Arabia … so don’t read anything into my poor attempt at humor. After watching the DOW drop over 2158 points and seeing the index close just […]
RichC | January 3, 2020
As far as one of my biggest investing mistakes goes — buying General Electric ($GE) “after their initial collapse in 2017” – I am hoping this next year “might” be a year of true recovery (pre-posting over lunch on Thursday January 2, 2020)? Of course that is yet to be, but 2019 was at least […]
RichC | August 5, 2019
Monday, August 5th, 2019 was not a good day to be long in the stock markets – WSJ update. I think we are often too complacent with investing and fall victim to the “stay the course” and invest for long run mentality. It is easy to forget just how painful market drops can be. Economist […]
RichC | May 1, 2019
Those of us invested or following the stock market either with individual stocks, mutual funds or ETF index funds have to be pleased with the rebound in the economy since December 2018. The first quarter has rewarded those who remained invested (so as long as they have been diversified) for the long haul. Even with […]
RichC | March 24, 2019
Maybe it is my age … or just the latest swing to the radical left by Democrats staging themselves for a presidential primary to challenge President Trump in 2020 … but this whole anti-free market socialist tilt has me concerned for the direction of our country. It is no longer the political quarrel over the […]
RichC | March 3, 2019
But before the “six degrees of separation” reference (see below), how do you stack up to the WSJ survey of “workers benefiting from a strong U.S. labor market?” One thing that seems to remain consistent over the years is that an education benefits you when it comes to jobs and compensation in the long haul, […]
RichC | November 28, 2018
The Dow closed up 618 points on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell indicated that "interest rates are just below the neutral level that neither aids or hinders economic growth." Investors looking for something positive as they wait hoping for some good news during the G-20 meeting between President Trump and China’s Xi […]
RichC | November 13, 2018
After Monday’s selloff (see below), what lies ahead for the U.S. economy? That thought has some of seriously thinking the next economic downturn could come sooner rather than as expected … later. The sell off … "again" … has me wondering if we are prepared for the next recession? Is the U.S., or the world, […]
RichC | October 30, 2018
October is indeed a "scary" month for investors who are still hoping the bull market is not over … and perhaps just slowing? Earning for the most part are still good, interest rates aren’t "scary" high and the economy seems to be chugging along. Most who want work are finding jobs and employers are complaining […]
RichC | October 12, 2018
Q: Why am I not surprised to see U.S. stocks extend Wednesday’s ugly losses with more selling on Thursday? A: Because it is October! Well because the talking heads that “I listen to” point out just how strong our economy is and that corporate earnings are strong, consumer confidence high and the regulation and tax […]
RichC | October 11, 2018
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RichC | July 19, 2018
One of the topics of conversation for me throughout the years has been investing and trading. I enjoy the research and challenge, but having made many bad picks and mistakes, also realized just how dicey this is. This has made me sensitive when talking too specific with family and friends … even though I enjoy […]
RichC | February 8, 2018
So much for the "good news" that tax cuts will eventually providing revenue by helping the economy grow. The "hope" is that over time the economy growing will put more people to work (it is) and that the snowball would eventually grow paychecks (it is) AND that we could begin to reduce our country’s yearly […]
RichC | December 15, 2017
Another record high on Wall Street as once again the financial markets believe the Republicans in congress will finally get promised tax reform across the finish line. Even if Democrats see some benefits (many agree US corporate taxes are too high) they haven’t contributed in the GOP plan; they likely will continue to oppose anything […]
RichC | November 15, 2017
I occasionally receive emails or comments from friends and acquaintances who know I watch financial markets asking me to share my thoughts on investing. They really want stock "recommendations," but almost always refuse to give advice when it comes to picking and choosing individual companies. For the record, there is always financial risk and the […]
RichC | August 10, 2017
With the tension rising between the U.S. and North Korea over nuclear weapons, the broad financial markets headed lower today for the first time in a while (or so it seemed). The often cited DJIA closed down 204.69 or about 1% while the Nasdaq doubled that move at 2% down. Even though the tone was […]
RichC | February 21, 2017
Once again the US Financial market rose to new record highs on Tuesday as the Trump rally continues to encourage investment and hope for earning, regulation reductions and tax relief. Likely those three biggies will either get done and satisfy investors or disappoint with a delay and trigger a sell-off. Who knows if congress can […]
RichC | December 7, 2016
U.S. stocks charged to fresh highs, with major indexes logging their biggest one-day rally since the election. See WSJ story.
RichC | December 5, 2016
The exuberance is everyway if you listen to the talking heads on cable business news shows as all but "one" component of Pres-Elect Donald Trump’s platform is good for business, jobs and the economy. Unfortunately it is the component that the media and Twittersphere is currently focused on … a 35% tariff on U.S. companies […]
RichC | June 24, 2016
Financial markets around the globe are reeling Friday morning from yesterday’s historic BREXIT vote in the UK as the people have chosen to exit the EU. Big picture is that life has not improved for citizens of Britain under the real or perceived central control — some suggesting it is "their" Independence Day. Even though […]
RichC | February 12, 2016
Markets gave back yesterday’s losses today as some thought the selling was a little too panicked. A bit of news from the oil cartels about curtailing output had oil move up and that kicked off a wave of buying the beat up stocks.The close is near in the posted charts and the close for the […]
RichC | January 8, 2016
The financial markets took another slide this Friday afternoon even after “impressive” job numbers were released this morning. Growth was well above expectations showing 292,00 jobs were created in December 2015. This came as a mixed message for investors as they needed something to stimulate their interest in buying stocks … unfortunately many came away […]
RichC | August 24, 2015
The trading day is not over yet, but the moves on Wall Street and with individual stocks or indices have been unprecedented today. We are currently down 600 points on the Dow Jones Industrial average with an hour left in the day, but that almost seems mild compared to the onslaught of sell ordering in […]
RichC | August 21, 2015
We often hear the “firing on all cylinders” comment when talking about fiscal execution in managing companies … well the U.S. and World economy is not currently firing on many cylinders. Countries in Asia have been taking their lead from the 2008 model enacted by the US Fed which devalues currency in relation to other […]
RichC | June 30, 2015
Seems like about every article I read pointed to the fact that Greece’s economy is only “half the size of Ohio” and that we are insulated from the turmoil over this game of chicken they are playing with the IMF and pending $1.73B payment default. Still traders on Monday in about every market decided this […]
RichC | May 31, 2015
If you’ve been watching the “easy money” policies from central banks around the world (following the U.S. Fed’s lead), you may being wondering just how much money can be infused by government without suffering an economic calamity? So far, those investors “borrowing” at low interest rates in order to participate heavily in the stock market […]
RichC | May 6, 2015
Equity markets are struggling to make any positive headway this month as each time there is a sliver of optimism that the economy will improve, another round of negativity takes the wind out of sails. Wednesday, after what looked like a positive start to the trading day, a “triple whammy of a pullback in energy […]
RichC | February 13, 2015
The U.S. stock market rallied this week and closed Friday in nose bleed territory. The Dow finished the day at 18,019.35 up 47 points and S&P 500 setting a new record as well up .41 percent at 2096.99. The Nasdaq was up as well and closed at 4893.84, nearing its old high of 5,048.62 back […]
RichC | November 7, 2014
The Stock Trader’s Almanac is always an interesting read in referencing history when it comes to forecasting market moves. If their research is correct we may still have 5-10% to grow. Quite bullish. Since the great stock washout of 2014 the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have gone up about nine percent in […]
RichC | November 3, 2014
Most financial experts emphasis not to “time the market” when investing, but it is difficult to resist researching and compiling statistics? Well, I’m guilty and have used a few when routinely adding investments to a retirement portfolio, particularly when buying the broad market. In the 1990s when trading futures somewhat regularly (not comfortably or particularly […]
RichC | September 14, 2014
There was a spirited debate this past week concerning the Federal Reserves’ exit strategies and what will happen when the Fed balance sheet is deleveraged. The equity bulls continue to believe the U.S. will see economic grow as interest rates remain low and continued tame inflation numbers (some like Wilbur Ross are more concerned about […]
RichC | August 24, 2014
The stock market roars to new highs as the summer comes to an end, but investors continue pouring money into higher risk equities as if they have forgot what can happen. This is in part due to the low yield in fixed income assets and the new indice highs have more than a few economy […]
RichC | June 6, 2014
While closing the first full week of June on a rather high note (all time high!), the financial markets and Dow Jones Industrial Average pushed ever closer to 17K — DJIA closed at 16,923.77 up 87.66 (0.52%). I’m probably not the only one wondering how companies can keep performing when consumers have fewer dollars leftover […]
RichC | April 29, 2013
RichC | March 5, 2013
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Tuesday to its highest closing level ever jumping 125.95 points to finish above the previous record of 14164.53 set on Oct. 9, 2007. The low was a year and a half later bottoming out at 6547.05 on March 9, 2009. For those holding or buying “long” and in the […]
RichC | January 2, 2013
Well the “fiscal cliff” has been averted for the time being … a sort of a “kick the can down the road” decision was made in Washington DC … to use two of the banished terms for 2013 (link). The deal with hardly dealt with spending, the deficit or the looming under-funded entitlements which are […]
RichC | November 19, 2012
After 40 years at the helm of Intel ($INTC), CEO Paul Otellini intends to retire in May of 2012. The announcement has delayed the opening of Intel’s stock today and after a significant downturn in stock price will be another concern for investors. Intel Corp. (INTC) President and Chief Executive Paul Otellini intends to retire […]
RichC | September 14, 2012
While the financial markets here in the U.S. climb due to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke initiating QE3 and adding more dollars to the economy, the Muslim fanatics in other parts of the world protest, breach U.S. embassies and kill Americans. The current response from the Obama Administration has been cautious and seemingly sends mixed messages […]
RichC | February 21, 2012
I watched the Dow break the 13000 mark a couple of times today, but unfortunately for bulls, it didn’t hold; the Dow closed up just .13% at 12966. Looking back a few years, the Dow last traded at the 13000 level in May 2008 and was heading down from its historic high of 14198 in […]
RichC | December 20, 2011
A very positive day for a broad swath of Wall Street and U.S. based companies. The stock market saw trading return the Dow Jones Industrial Average back over the psychologically challenging 12,000 mark. Those watching the ups and downs realize that one day up 300+ points doesn’t mean all that much … especially when considering […]
RichC | November 30, 2011
The financial markets woke up to a jolt this morning as several central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve unified to shore up the global financial system. The debt crisis in Europe has continued to put downward stress on world markets and economies; the cheaper U.S. denominated loans available to European banks is expected to […]
RichC | November 26, 2011
I not the only one with indigestion … and it isn’t from the Thanksgiving day eating or the leftovers (or even the Black Friday frenzy) … but the crushing financial markets that have haunted investors since Halloween. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has turned in its “worst Thanksgiving week performance since markets began observing the […]
RichC | November 15, 2011
The news from Europe and lackluster leadership in Washington DC continued to dampen investors hopes that we might see a rebound in both jobs and economy, but for today the markets closed up after an early down move today. The Dow was up 17 points, S&P 500 about 6 and the Nasdaq an impressive 29 […]
RichC | October 27, 2011
Earlier this year as 2010 rolled into 2011 many American though it might be safe to look at their IRA and 401K statements after the long recession … but as deficit and debt talks heated up and U.S. debt was downgraded due to continued Washington DC borrowing and spending this past summer … most of […]
RichC | August 15, 2011
We’ve started off the week in a more upbeat fashion as the expectations are high for some kind of deal on Tuesday from the Europeans. Hopefully they’ll be able to sooth the jitters many are having over banking and Eurozone’s socialist mentality. I’m not holding my breath that they’ll be able the make the social […]
RichC | August 10, 2011
Maybe it just that we’re looking to point fingers or for a reason to remain pessimistic in our interconnected economies, but most reports I’ve been reading are now looking at the possible downgrade of French banks … and government. This spilled over to US markets (particularly banking) and started the day negatively. After some regrouping […]
RichC | August 9, 2011
Although I’m tiring of watching the fickle up and down action of the stock market … as are those who might stumble across my blog these couple of weeks … it is better to be able to say that the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished near session highs today. The 429.92 points – 3.98% gain […]
RichC | August 8, 2011
Double dip or not? That is the question investors are facing, especially if they are holding stocks and bonds. After lunch today the markets are still seeing heavy selling … panic selling perhaps … after the S&P downgrade this weekend. Realistically though, companies and even banks are much stronger than they were back in 2008 […]
RichC | June 3, 2011
The Dow Jones Industrial average continued its slide back towards 12,000 and most other indices followed suit. Unfortunately the stream of negative news relating to the economy has been pressuring buyers to either remain on the sidelines or sell shares in all but a few hot IPO offerings. From companies slow to hire new workers, […]
RichC | May 27, 2010
DJI: +285 (+2.8%) | NASDAQ: +82 (3.7%) | S&P 500: +35 (3.3%) If I knew how to trade the up and down stock market I’d be a happy camper … unfortunately it is near impossible. Today’s comeback saw stocks returning the losses from Tuesday and Wednesday, but conditions on Wall Street (and in the overall […]
RichC | August 13, 2009
As U.S. Congressional representatives sweat over whether to have townhall meetings in their states to talk healthcare during the August recess, I sweat over how to plan financial security for my family‘s future, of which health insurance is a part. Years ago it seemed logical to just keep plunking away a few dollars into a […]
RichC | March 2, 2009
WSJ Online Here’s a bright thought: if, scratch that, when … the economy rebounds, it most likely will rise quickly from the shocking lows we are currently seeing. The dark side is that this selloff doesn’t seem to be finding a bottom and there aren’t many confident traders ready buy stocks again. Today’s news from […]